Chaotic, staggered and polarized dynamics in opinion forming: the contrarian effect

We revisit the no tie breaking 2-state Galam contrarian model of opinion dynamics for update groups of size 3. While the initial model assumes a constant density of contrarians a for both opinions, it now depends for each opinion on its global support. Proportionate contrarians are thus found to indeed preserve the former case main results. However, restricting the contrarian behavior to only the current collective majority, makes the dynamics more complex with novel features. For a density a<a_c=1/9 of one-sided contrarians, a chaotic basin is found in the fifty-fifty region separated from two majority-minority point attractors, one on each side. For 1/9<a< 0.301 only the chaotic basin survives. In the range a>0.301 the chaotic basin disappears and the majority starts to alternate between the two opinions with a staggered flow towards two point attractors. We then study the effect of both, decoupling the local update time sequence from the contrarian behavior activation, and a smoothing of the majority rule. A status quo driven bias for contrarian activation is also considered. Introduction of unsettled agents driven in the debate on a contrarian basis is shown to only shrink the chaotic basin. The model may shed light to recent apparent contradictory elections with on the one hand very tied results like in US in 2000 and in Germany in 2002 and 2005, and on the other hand, a huge majority like in France in 2002.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

Self-consistency and Symmetry in d-dimensions

Bethe approximation is shown to violate Bravais lattices translational invariance. A new scheme is then presented which goes over the one-site Weiss model yet preserving initial lattice symmetry. A mapping to a one-dimensional finite closed chain in an external field is obtained. Lattice topology determines the chain size. Using recent results in percolation, lattice connectivity between chains is argued to be $(q(d-1)-2)/(d)$ where $q$ is the coordination number and $d$ is the space dimension. A new self-consistent mean-field equation of state is derived. Critical temperatures are thus calculated for a large variety of lattices and dimensions. Results are within a few percent of exact estimates. Moreover onset of phase transitions is found to occur in the range $(d-1)q> 2$. For the Ising hypercube it yields the Golden number limit $d > (1+\sqrt 5)/(2)$.Comment: 16 pages, latex, Phys. Rev. B (in press

From GM Law to A Powerful Mean Field Scheme

A new and powerful mean field scheme is presented. It maps to a one-dimensional finite closed chain in an external field. The chain size accounts for lattice topologies. Moreover lattice connectivity is rescaled according to the GM law recently obtained in percolation theory. The associated self-consistent mean-field equation of state yields critical temperatures which are within a few percent of exact estimates. Results are obtained for a large variety of lattices and dimensions. The Ising lower critical dimension for the onset of phase transitions is $d_l=1+\frac{2}{q}$. For the Ising hypercube it becomes the Golden number $d_l=\frac{1+\sqrt 5}{2}$. The scheme recovers the exact result of no long range order for non-zero temperature Ising triangular antiferromagnets.Comment: 3M Conference Proceedings, San Jose, California (November, 1999

Opinion dynamics: rise and fall of political parties

We analyze the evolution of political organizations using a model in which agents change their opinions via two competing mechanisms. Two agents may interact and reach consensus, and additionally, individual agents may spontaneously change their opinions by a random, diffusive process. We find three distinct possibilities. For strong diffusion, the distribution of opinions is uniform and no political organizations (parties) are formed. For weak diffusion, parties do form and furthermore, the political landscape continually evolves as small parties merge into larger ones. Without diffusion, a pattern develops: parties have the same size and they possess equal niches. These phenomena are analyzed using pattern formation and scaling techniques.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Spatial correlations in vote statistics: a diffusive field model for decision-making

We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the fraction of winning votes, is found to decay logarithmically with the distance between towns. Based on these empirical observations and on the analogy with a two-dimensional random diffusion equation, we propose that individual decisions can be rationalised in terms of an underlying "cultural" field, that locally biases the decision of the population of a given region, on top of an idiosyncratic, town-dependent field, with short range correlations. Using symmetry considerations and a set of plausible assumptions, we suggest that this cultural field obeys a random diffusion equation.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures; added sociophysics references

The Galam Model of Minority Opinion Spreading and the Marriage Gap

In 2002, Serge Galam designed a model of a minority opinion spreading. The effect is expected to lead a conservative minority to prevail if the issue is discussed long enough. Here we analyze the marriage gap, i.e. the difference in voting for Bush and Kerry in 2004 between married and unmarried people. It seems possible to interpret this marriage gap in terms of the Galam model.Comment: 6 page

Voting and Catalytic Processes with Inhomogeneities

We consider the dynamics of the voter model and of the monomer-monomer catalytic process in the presence of many ``competing'' inhomogeneities and show, through exact calculations and numerical simulations, that their presence results in a nontrivial fluctuating steady state whose properties are studied and turn out to specifically depend on the dimensionality of the system, the strength of the inhomogeneities and their separating distances. In fact, in arbitrary dimensions, we obtain an exact (yet formal) expression of the order parameters (magnetization and concentration of adsorbed particles) in the presence of an arbitrary number $n$ of inhomogeneities (``zealots'' in the voter language) and formal similarities with {\it suitable electrostatic systems} are pointed out. In the nontrivial cases $n=1, 2$, we explicitly compute the static and long-time properties of the order parameters and therefore capture the generic features of the systems. When $n>2$, the problems are studied through numerical simulations. In one spatial dimension, we also compute the expressions of the stationary order parameters in the completely disordered case, where $n$ is arbitrary large. Particular attention is paid to the spatial dependence of the stationary order parameters and formal connections with electrostatics.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, revtex4 2-column format. Original title ("Are Voting and Catalytic Processes Electrostatic Problems ?") changed upon editorial request. Minor typos corrected. Published in Physical Review

Noisy continuous--opinion dynamics

We study the Deffuant et al. model for continuous--opinion dynamics under the influence of noise. In the original version of this model, individuals meet in random pairwise encounters after which they compromise or not depending of a confidence parameter. Free will is introduced in the form of noisy perturbations: individuals are given the opportunity to change their opinion, with a given probability, to a randomly selected opinion inside the whole opinion space. We derive the master equation of this process. One of the main effects of noise is to induce an order-disorder transition. In the disordered state the opinion distribution tends to be uniform, while for the ordered state a set of well defined opinion groups are formed, although with some opinion spread inside them. Using a linear stability analysis we can derive approximate conditions for the transition between opinion groups and the disordered state. The master equation analysis is compared with direct Monte-Carlo simulations. We find that the master equation and the Monte-Carlo simulations do not always agree due to finite-size induced fluctuations that we analyze in some detail

Bayesian Updating Rules in Continuous Opinion Dynamics Models

In this article, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling social agents in the case of continuos opinions models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable $x$, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a Uniform distribution. This represents the idea the other agent might have no idea about what he is talking about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied. and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the Bounded Confidence models. By also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, presented at SigmaPhi200

Contemporary management of genitourinary injuries in a tertiary trauma centre in Nigeria

Background: The genitourinary system has been shown to be involved in 10% of patients presenting after trauma and is therefore a significant factor in trauma induced morbidity and mortality. It affects all age groups and both sexes. The aim of this study is to determine the aetiology, mechanism of injury and management of genitourinary injuries in a tertiary trauma centre.Methods: This is a prospective study carried out at the Jos University Teaching Hospital between 2012 and 2017. All patients who presented at the A and E with genitourinary trauma were recruited into the study. Initial assessment involved taking an AMPLE history and resuscitation, using the Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) protocol of the American College of Surgeons. Physical examination and investigation were carried out to localize and determine extent of injury. Investigations carried out were complete blood count, blood grouping, serum electrolyte, urea and creatinine and radiography where applicable. Surgical intervention was carried out where indicated.Results: A total of 104 patients were involved in this study. The mean age was 32.14±15.5 years with a range of 3 to 75yrs. Median age was 28yrs. Eighty-nine (85.6%) were males while fifteen (14.4%) were females. The genitalia were the most affected in 34% (n=35) of the patients. Gunshot was the commonest mechanism of injury (37.5%, n=39). Operative and non-operative management were employed depending on mechanism and extent of injury.Conclusions: Gunshot was the commonest cause of genitourinary trauma. These injuries require specialized attention for proper assessment and management.