Generalized linear time series regression

We consider a cross-section model that contains an individual component, a deterministic time trend and an unobserved latent common time series component. We show the following oracle property: the parameters of the latent time series and the parameters of the deterministic time trend can be estimated with the same asymptotic accuracy as if the parameters of the individual component were known. We consider this model in two settings: least squares fits of linear specifications of the individual component and the parameters of the deterministic time trend and, more generally, quasilikelihood estimation in a generalized linear time series model

The dynamic structure of wages in Germany 1976 - 1984: A cohort analysis

Based on social security data, this paper analyzes wage trends for full employed males by estimating (censored) quantile regressions as functions of age, cohort, education, and year. We test whether a parsimonious specification separating life cycle effects from macroeconomic effects can describe the dynamics of wages. Our results indicate that insider wages are uniformly affected by a acroeconomic trend. For some education groups, this also holds for entry wages. Since within-inequality stays fairly constant, the estimated profiles characterize the entire wage distribution. After controlling for age and cohort, also wage differentials across education remain roughly stable.

Heterogenität in der Konjunkturabhängigkeit von Job-zu-Job-Übergängen

Scarce empirical evidence exists for Germany regarding the cyclical aspects of worker reallocation. Furthermore, it is assumed that the cyclical influence on transition rates is the same for all demographic groups. However, one can expect that each subgroup is differentially influenced by the same cycle. Therefore, we emphasize the heterogeneity of cyclical influences for different subgroups of workers, defined by age, gender and skills, and focus on job-to-job transitions which are, in fact, found to be the largest flows in the German labor market. The findings suggest that job-to-job transitions are procyclical. The empirical framework employed here allows demographic groups to vary in their cyclical sensitivity. Female and unskilled workers experience more pronounced swings than the core group of medium-skilled, medium-aged men. By contrast, the job-to-job transition rates of high-skilled workers, old workers, as well as young workers are less influenced by cyclical behavior

Firm heterogeneity and wages under different bargaining regimes : does a centralised union care for low-productivity firms?

This paper studies the relationship between wages and the degree of firm heterogeneity in a given industry under different wage setting structures. To derive testable hypotheses, we set up a theoretical model that analyses the sensitivity of wages to the variability in productivity conditions in a unionsised oligopoly framework. The model distinguishes centralised and decentralised wage determination. The theoretical results predict wages to be negatively associated with the degree of firm heterogeneity under centralised wage-setting, as unions internalise negative externalities of a wage increase for low-productivity firms. We test this prediction using a linked employeremployee panel data set from the German mining and manufacturing sector. Consistent with our hypotheses, the empirical results suggest that under industry-level bargaining workers in more heterogeneous sectors receive lower wages than workers in more homogeneous sectors. In contrast, the degree of firm heterogeneity is found to have no negative impact on wages in uncovered firms and under firm-level contracts

Beyond the mean gender wage gap : decomposition of differences in wage distributions using quantile regression

Using linked employer-employee data, this study measures and decomposes the differences in the earnings distribution between male and female employees in Germany. I extend the traditional decomposition to disentangle the effect of human capital characteristics and the effect of firm characteristics in explaining the gender wage gap. Furthermore, I implement the decomposition across the whole wage distribution with the method proposed by Machado and Mata (2005). Thereby, I take into account the dependence between the human capital endowment of individuals and workplace characteristics. The selection of women into less successful and productive firms explains a sizeable part of the gap. This selection is more pronounced in the lower part of the wage distribution than in the upper tail. In addition, women also benefit from the success of firms by rent-sharing to a lesser extent than their male colleagues. This is the source of the largest part of the pay gap. Gender differences in human capital endowment as well s differences in returns to human capital are less responsible for the wage differential

Regional age structure, human capital and innovation - is demographic ageing increasing regional disparities?

Demographic change is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the workers age structure, innovation output and skill composition for German regions by conducting an Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA). Beside commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow investigating the space-time dynamics of the spatial distributions. We include an analysis of the joint distributional dynamics of the patenting variable with the remaining interest variables. Overall, we find strong clustering tendencies for the demographic variables and innovation that constitute a great divide across German regions. The detected clusters partly evolve over time and suggest a demographic polarization trend among regions that may further reinforce the observed innovation divide in the future