Land, water and tourism in Aitutaki, Cook Islands

Most island governments in the South Pacific have placed a great deal of faith in a continued annual increase in numbers of tourists as a guarantee of national economic growth. This is particularly the case in the Cook Islands. The response by local, mostly small-scale entrepreneurs has been to invest in the building of tourist accommodation, not only on the main island of Rarotonga, but also on the island of Aitutaki. Until recently the piecemeal development of accommodation on that island has occurred with little reference to the impact on the environment

Motivations for contemporary Tongan migration

Migration can be seen as a process in which large numbers of individuals and families begin to write a new history for themselves. The initial act of leaving one's parents, family, neighbourhood, society and culture, and adopting a new life- and work-style is a crucial one. Only a small proportion of people who enter a migration process, or who have participated in major migration movements in the past, have had a clear perception of what they were going to encounter, or the extent to which their lives were going to change. While it is very likely that a large proportion of the individual migrants are the forerunners in a migration which will ultimately involve other members of their kin network, they are not usually able to foresee this at the time

Access to primary care and the route of emergency admission to hospital: retrospective analysis of national hospital administrative data

BACKGROUND: The UK government is pursuing policies to improve primary care access, as many patients visit accident and emergency (A and E) departments after being unable to get suitable general practice appointments. Direct admission to hospital via a general practitioner (GP) averts A and E use, and may reduce total hospital costs. It could also enhance the continuity of information between GPs and hospital doctors, possibly improving healthcare outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether primary care access is associated with the route of emergency admission-via a GP versus via an A and E department. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of national administrative data from English hospitals for 2011-2012. Adults admitted in an emergency (unscheduled) for ≥1 night via a GP or an A and E department formed the study population. The measure of primary care access-the percentage of patients able to get a general practice appointment on their last attempt-was derived from a large, nationally representative patient survey. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate associations, adjusting for patient and admission characteristics. RESULTS: The analysis included 2 322 112 emergency admissions (81.9% via an A and E department). With a 5 unit increase in the percentage of patients able to get a general practice appointment on their last attempt, the adjusted odds of GP admission (vs A and E admission) was estimated to increase by 15% (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.17). The probability of GP admission if ≥95% of appointment attempts were successful in each general practice was estimated to be 19.6%. This probability reduced to 13.6% when <80% of appointment attempts were successful. This equates to 139 673 fewer GP admissions (456 232 vs 316 559) assuming no change in the total number of admissions. Associations were consistent in direction across geographical regions of England. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospital inpatients admitted as an emergency, patients registered to more accessible general practices were more likely to have been admitted via a GP (vs an A and E department). This furthers evidence suggesting that access to general practice is related to use of emergency hospital services in England. The relative merits of the two admission routes remain unclear

Patient experience of general practice and use of emergency hospital services in England: regression analysis of national cross-sectional time series data.

BACKGROUND: The UK Government has introduced several national policies to improve access to primary care. We examined associations between patient experience of general practice and rates of visits to accident and emergency (A&E) departments and emergency hospital admissions in England. METHODS: The study included 8124 general practices between 2011-2012 and 2013-2014. Outcome measures were annual rates of A&E visits and emergency admissions by general practice population, according to administrative hospital records. Explanatory variables included three patient experience measures from the General Practice Patient Survey: practice-level means of experience of making an appointment, satisfaction with opening hours and overall experience (on 0-100 scales). The main analysis used random-effects Poisson regression for cross-sectional time series. Five sensitivity analyses examined changes in model specification. RESULTS: Mean practice-level rates of A&E visits and emergency admissions increased from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014 (310.3-324.4 and 98.8-102.9 per 1000 patients). Each patient experience measure decreased; for example, mean satisfaction with opening hours was 79.4 in 2011-2012 and 76.6 in 2013-2014. In the adjusted regression analysis, an SD increase in experience of making appointments (equal to 9 points) predicted decreases of 1.8% (95% CI -2.4% to -1.2%) in A&E visit rates and 1.4% (95% CI -1.9% to -0.9%) in admission rates. This equalled 301 174 fewer A&E visits and 74 610 fewer admissions nationally per year. Satisfaction with opening hours and overall experience were not consistently associated with either outcome measure across the main and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between patient experience of general practice and use of emergency hospital services were small or inconsistent. In England, realistic short-term improvements in patient experience of general practice may only have modest effects on A&E visits and emergency admissions

Modeling influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics

Climate drivers such as humidity and temperature may play a key role in influenza seasonal transmission dynamics. Such a relationship has been well defined for temperate regions. However, to date no models capable of capturing the diverse seasonal pattern in tropical and subtropical climates exist. In addition, multiple influenza viruses could cocirculate and shape epidemic dynamics. Here we construct seven mechanistic epidemic models to test the effect of two major climate drivers (humidity and temperature) and multi-strain co-circulation on influenza transmission in Hong Kong, an influenza epidemic center located in the subtropics. Based on model fit to long-term influenza surveillance data from 1998 to 2018, we found that a simple model incorporating the effect of both humidity and temperature best recreated the influenza epidemic patterns observed in Hong Kong. The model quantifies a bimodal effect of absolute humidity on influenza transmission where both low and very high humidity levels facilitate transmission quadratically; the model also quantifies the monotonic but nonlinear relationship with temperature. In addition, model results suggest that, at the population level, a shorter immunity period can approximate the co-circulation of influenza virus (sub)types. The basic reproductive number R0 estimated by the best-fit model is also consistent with laboratory influenza survival and transmission studies under various combinations of humidity and temperature levels. Overall, our study has developed a simple mechanistic model capable of quantifying the impact of climate drivers on influenza transmission in (sub)tropical regions. This model can be applied to improve influenza forecasting in the (sub)tropics in the future