The Network Analysis of Urban Streets: A Primal Approach

The network metaphor in the analysis of urban and territorial cases has a long tradition especially in transportation/land-use planning and economic geography. More recently, urban design has brought its contribution by means of the "space syntax" methodology. All these approaches, though under different terms like accessibility, proximity, integration,connectivity, cost or effort, focus on the idea that some places (or streets) are more important than others because they are more central. The study of centrality in complex systems,however, originated in other scientific areas, namely in structural sociology, well before its use in urban studies; moreover, as a structural property of the system, centrality has never been extensively investigated metrically in geographic networks as it has been topologically in a wide range of other relational networks like social, biological or technological. After two previous works on some structural properties of the dual and primal graph representations of urban street networks (Porta et al. cond-mat/0411241; Crucitti et al. physics/0504163), in this paper we provide an in-depth investigation of centrality in the primal approach as compared to the dual one, with a special focus on potentials for urban design.Comment: 19 page, 4 figures. Paper related to the paper "The Network Analysis of Urban Streets: A Dual Approach" cond-mat/041124

Seasonal time-series modeling and forecasting of monthly mean temperature for decision making in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

A generalized structural time-series modeling framework was used to analyze the monthly records of mean temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using classical stochastic processes. In this article we are using the SARIMA Box–Jenkins model and obtain a medium-term (10 years) forecast of the mean temperature in Erbil. A prediction of the monthly mean temperature during the past 287 months ((Formula presented.)24 years) using the SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model predicts that the average temperature in the governorate of Erbil, Iraq, will be stable for the next 10 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that our model performs equally well when applying it to different periods of time for which data is available. The method used here could easily be applied by the decision makers responsible for providing water and electricity in the Kurdistan Region

Assessing the vulnerability to price spikes in agricultural commodity markets

We empirically examine the predictability of the conditions which are associated with a higher probability of a price spike in agricultural commodity markets. We find that the forward spread is the most significant indicator of probable price jumps in maize, wheat and soybeans futures markets, a result which is in line with the “Theory of Storage”. We additionally show that some option-implied variables add significant predictive power when added to the more standard information variable set. Overall, the estimated probabilities of large price increases from our probit models exhibit significant correlations with the historical sudden market upheavals in agricultural markets

Aortic root dimension changes during systole and diastole: evaluation with ECG-gated multidetector row computed tomography

Cardiac pulsatility and aortic compliance may result in aortic area and diameter changes throughout the cardiac cycle in the entire aorta. Until this moment these dynamic changes could never be established in the aortic root (aortic annulus, sinuses of Valsalva and sinotubular junction). The aim of this study was to visualize and characterize the changes in aortic root dimensions during systole and diastole with ECG-gated multidetector row computed tomography (MDCT). MDCT scans of subjects without aortic root disease were analyzed. Retrospectively, ECG-gated reconstructions at each 10% of the cardiac cycle were made and analyzed during systole (30–40%) and diastole (70–75%). Axial planes were reconstructed at three different levels of the aortic root. At each level the maximal and its perpendicular luminal dimension were measured. The mean dimensions of the total study group (n = 108, mean age 56 ± 13 years) do not show any significant difference between systole and diastole. The individual dimensions vary up to 5 mm. However, the differences range between minus 5 mm (diastolic dimension is greater than systolic dimensions) and 5 mm (vice versa). This variability is independent of gender, age, height and weight. This study demonstrated a significant individual dynamic change in the dimensions of the aortic root. These results are highly unpredictable. Most of the healthy subjects have larger systolic dimensions, however, some do have larger diastolic dimensions

Inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process: A computational economic analysis

Our computational economic analysis investigates the relationship between inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process. Extending the baseline model by Levy et al., we characterise the economic process trough stylised return structures generating alternative evolutions of income and wealth through historical time. First we explore the limited heuristic contribution of one and two factors models comprising one single stock (capital wealth) and one single flow factor (labour) as pure drivers of income and wealth generation and allocation over time. Then we introduce heuristic modes of taxation in line with the baseline approach. Our computational economic analysis corroborates that the financial accumulation process featuring compound returns plays a significant role as source of inequality, while institutional configurations including taxation play a significant role in framing and shaping the aggregate economic process that evolves over socioeconomic space and time

Temporal Dynamics and Impact of Climate Factors on the Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Central Tunisia

Old world cutaneous leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease occurring in rural areas of developing countries. The main reservoirs are the rodents Psammomys obesus and Meriones shawi. Zoonotic Leishmania transmission cycle is maintained in the burrows of rodents where the sand fly Phlebotomus papatasi finds the ideal environment and source of blood meals. In the present study we showed seasonality of the incidence of disease during the same cycle with an inter-epidemic period ranging from 4 to 7 years. We evaluated the impact of climate variables (rainfall, humidity and temperature) on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniais in central Tunisia. We confirmed that the risk of disease is mainly influenced by the humidity related to the months of July to September during the same season and mean rainfall lagged by 12 to 14 months

Assessment of the health of Americans: the average health-related quality of life and its inequality across individuals and groups

BACKGROUND: The assessment of population health has traditionally relied on the population's average health measured by mortality related indicators. Researchers have increasingly recognized the importance of including information on health inequality and health-related quality of life (HRQL) in the assessment of population health. The objective of this study is to assess the health of Americans in the 1990s by describing the average HRQL and its inequality across individuals and groups. METHODS: This study uses the 1990 and 1995 National Health Interview Survey from the United States. The measure of HRQL is the Health and Activity Limitation Index (HALex). The measure of health inequality across individuals is the Gini coefficient. This study provides confidence intervals (CI) for the Gini coefficient by a bootstrap method. To describe health inequality by group, this study decomposes the overall Gini coefficient into the between-group, within-group, and overlap Gini coefficient using race (White, Black, and other) as an example. This study looks at how much contribution the overlap Gini coefficient makes to the overall Gini coefficient, in addition to the absolute mean differences between groups. RESULTS: The average HALex was the same in 1990 (0.87, 95% CI: 0.87, 0.88) and 1995 (0.87, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.87). The Gini coefficient for the HALex distribution across individuals was greater in 1995 (0.097, 95% CI: 0.096, 0.099) than 1990 (0.092, 95% CI: 0.091, 0.094). Differences in the average HALex between all racial groups were the same in 1995 as 1990. The contribution of the overlap to the overall Gini coefficient was greater in 1995 than in 1990 by 2.4%. In both years, inequality between racial groups accounted only for 4–5% of overall inequality. CONCLUSION: The average HRQL of Americans was the same in 1990 and 1995, but inequality in HRQL across individuals was greater in 1995 than 1990. Inequality in HRQL by race was smaller in 1995 than 1990 because race had smaller effect on the way health was distributed in 1995 than 1990. Analysis of the average HRQL and its inequality provides information on the health of a population invisible in the traditional analysis of population health