How Best to Use the Extraordinary Hydrocarbon Revenues in Bolivia: Results from a Computable General Equilibrium Model

The high oil prices and the sharp increases in royalties mean that the natural gas boom in Bolivia has become very important for the economy, and particularly important as a source of government revenues. Using a CGE model, Andersen et al (2006) show that the natural gas boom is likely to boost GDP growth by about 1 percentage point per year. However, if the government continues with past spending and investment patterns, the boom is also likely to have a very adverse effect on the income distribution, so much so that the poorest half of the population is likely to experience absolute reductions in their real income levels compared to a scenario without gas boom. The present paper explores alternative uses of natural gas revenues in the CGE model to see if a better outcome can be engineered.Natural Gas, Inequality, CGE model, Bolivia

Social Mobility in Bolivia is Finally Improving!

This paper evaluates the degree of social mobility in Bolivia, both by comparing to other Latin American countries, and by comparing social mobility at different points in time. While Bolivia had one of the lowest levels of social mobility in the region in 1997, the last 10 years have seen spectacular improvements, especially for rural and female teenagers. This is very good news, as it suggests that Bolivia has finally escaped the low mobility – low growth equilibrium where it has been stuck for so long.Social Mobility, Bolivia

Convergence Analysis of an Inexact Feasible Interior Point Method for Convex Quadratic Programming

In this paper we will discuss two variants of an inexact feasible interior point algorithm for convex quadratic programming. We will consider two different neighbourhoods: a (small) one induced by the use of the Euclidean norm which yields a short-step algorithm and a symmetric one induced by the use of the infinity norm which yields a (practical) long-step algorithm. Both algorithms allow for the Newton equation system to be solved inexactly. For both algorithms we will provide conditions for the level of error acceptable in the Newton equation and establish the worst-case complexity results

GenERRate: generating errors for use in grammatical error detection

This paper explores the issue of automatically generated ungrammatical data and its use in error detection, with a focus on the task of classifying a sentence as grammatical or ungrammatical. We present an error generation tool called GenERRate and show how GenERRate can be used to improve the performance of a classifier on learner data. We describe initial attempts to replicate Cambridge Learner Corpus errors using GenERRate

Time-Dependent Random Walks and the Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems

Motivated by novel results in the theory of complex adaptive systems, we analyze the dynamics of random walks in which the jumping probabilities are {\it time-dependent}. We determine the survival probability in the presence of an absorbing boundary. For an unbiased walk the survival probability is maximized in the case of large temporal oscillations in the jumping probabilities. On the other hand, a random walker who is drifted towards the absorbing boundary performs best with a constant jumping probability. We use the results to reveal the underlying dynamics responsible for the phenomenon of self-segregation and clustering observed in the evolutionary minority game.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Gluon Thermodynamics at Intermediate Coupling

We calculate the thermodynamic functions of Yang-Mills theory to three-loop order using the hard-thermal-loop perturbation theory reorganization of finite temperature quantum field theory. We show that at three-loop order hard-thermal-loop perturbation theory is compatible with lattice results for the pressure, energy density, and entropy down to temperatures T ~ 2 - 3 T_c.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures; v2 - published version

Social impacts of climate change in Bolivia : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent climate change on life expectancy, consumption, poverty and inequality

This paper analyzes the direct evidence of climate change in Bolivia during the past 60 years, and estimates how these changes have affected life expectancy and consumption levels for each of the 311 municipalities in Bolivia. Contrary to the predictions of most general circulation models, the evidence shows a consistent cooling trend of about 0.2°C per decade over all highland areas, slight and scattered evidence of warming in the lowlands, and no systematic changes in precipitation. The estimations indicate that the 1°C cooling experienced in the already cold highlands over the past five decades likely has reduced consumption possibilities by about 2-3 percent in these areas. Since the much richer population in the lowlands have benefitted slightly from recent climate change, the simulations suggest that recent climate change has contributed to an increase in inequality and poverty in Bolivia. Poor and indigenous peoples in the highlands are among the most severely affected populations. No statistically significant effect on life expectancy was found.Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Science of Climate Change,Climate Change Economics,Global Environment Facility,Population Policies