POLICY, POLITICS AND PROJECTIONS IN MEXICAN AGRICULTURE

Agribusiness,

Impacts of the US Ethanol Boom in Rural Mexico

Assessing the human and environmental impacts of biofuels requires unraveling the connection between international trade, on one hand, and local land-use and social change, on the other, while accounting for cross-scalar linkages between and within social and environmental systems. We propose a disaggregated approach to model how macro shocks shape rural households’ decisions, and how these decisions integrate onto aggregate supply and land use patterns. The approach, built on an agent-based model of rural Mexico, is used to explore the impacts of ethanol-driven US corn price increases. Our estimate of a 5.7% expansion in corn area by 2008 and wide variation across regions corresponds fairly well with ex post reports. Estimates from alternative models exceed ours by up to 200%. Corn land expanded between 1.6% in the southeast and 16% in the northwest. A 3% increase in agricultural value added nevertheless did not promote rural development, whether measured in terms of total rural value added or income. Direct and indirect (multiplier) effects on rural incomes were limited. Rural households experienced a 0.02% increase in real income, while absentee (non-rural) landholders’ income increased 3.9%. Our approach highlights the crucial role of local market conditions and interactions among microeconomic actors in shaping biofuels’ impacts via local feedback mechanisms. It suggests that subsistence activities might keep deforestation pressures in check in some developing areas while precluding the rural population from benefiting. A disaggregated approach should help integrate future research on land-use change and economics.Crop Production/Industries,

A Market Study on the Viability of Small Launch Firms

As the United States only launch vehicle program NASA\u27~ Space Shuttle forced the shutdown of conventional launch vehicle operations . A system whose profitability depended on frequent use, but which, instead , incurred numerous launch delays, the Shuttle soon could not cover the cost of itself much less turn an profit. The French Ariane, albeit a simpler launch vehicle, soon successfully competed with the Shuttle for payloads. The Reagan Administration, by various supportive measures, encouraged the market entrance of commercial launch firms . The Shuttle and Ariane, however, subsidized by their respective governments , set prices so artificially low that no large commercial launch vehicle company (e.g. McDonnell Douglas, General Dynamics) could hope to survive if they entered the market. Nonetheless, in the early 1980\u27s several entrepreneurs started small launch firms with the hope of placing small payloads into orbit at a cheaper price than the Shuttle could . The handful of these companies in existence today hope to be operational by the end of the decade. The grounding of the Shuttle fleet after the Challenger accident and the Ariane\u27s technical difficulties may provide a valuable market opportunity for large and small commercial launch vehicles. This study is a three part analysis to determine if the future market environment will allow a small launch firm to establish itself and capture a sector of that market . The primary thrust o f chis analysis addresses the market all launch vehicles serve: the satellites that require access to space in order to generate revenue . First, an analysis of the satellite population over the past ten years was conducted to determine trends in satellite use. Characteristics of satellites such as their categories, and their weights which are critical to small launchers were addressed in order to define a target market segment and to establish its growth based on the historical data. Next, an analysis of forecast satellite and launch vehicle use provided another basis to determine the need for small launchers. Satellites projected for the next ten years were associated with the most probable launcher that would be available at the time the satellite is scheduled to be orbited . This forecast supported the initial trend analysis . These projections are subject to a great deal of uncertainty because of the dynamic nature of the s pace business environment following the Challenger accident. Issues affecting the market forecast were addressed and include the Administration\u27s future launch vehicle policy , the possibility of a replacement Shuttle , the final US space station configuration, the threat of foreign launch competition, the revival of expendable launchers and the demand for communication satellites. The likely course of action associated with each issue was determined and its impact was assessed against the projected trends and forecast . This information provided the most accurate forecast and was used in conjunction with representative data from several small launch firms to determine their profitability. The study established that a small launch firm could not profitably operate without a significant investment of additional capital to upgrade its capabilities to a point where it could orbit moderate sized geosynchronous satellites . Currently and for the next eight years there will be on insufficient demand to orbit smaller satellites . Once the space station is deployed in the mid-1990\u27s a change may occur and the need for transferring small payloads to the station may develop

Regional Growth Linkages between Villages and Towns in Mexico: A Village-wide Modeling Perspective

This paper measures linkages between farm and non-farm activities in rural Mexico using a multiplier model based on social accounting matrices (SAMs) from survey data for five villages at differing income levels and in different agro-ecological and market zones. We extend this analysis to a "mini-region" that includes three villages and their larger administrative center. By applying a constrained SAM multiplier model, the paper examines how economic shocks in rural areas affect non-farm incomes in rural villages, in neighboring rural towns and in larger regional cities. Two exogenous shocks on non-farm activity are examined: pure income transfers; and increased agricultural productivity. Experiments assume a perfectly inelastic supply of agricultural goods, as in "semi inputoutput" and "economic base" models. Results show that most farm-nonfarm diversification is between villages and regional urban centers. The largest linkages are with markets outside, rather than within, villages: an experimental $100 increase in exogenous income is linked with a$2 increase in non-farm production but a $51 increase in demand for imported goods. This is evidence of "agriculture-demand-ledindustrialization" and explains growth of regional urban centers, which now accounts for most of Mexico's urban growth. Our analysis highlights the complex economic interactions between villages and towns in what probably is a mutually beneficial relationship broadly consistent with comparative advantage. Results suggest that increasing the income of village households can stimulate growth of the rural non-farm commercial activity in towns and small cities. Comparisons across villages suggest that investments in rural infrastructure can facilitate these commercial linkages between villages and towns.Rural and Regional Economics, Development Economics, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

The Hague Conference and the Main Issues of Private International Law for the Eighties

The Hague Conference on Private International Law has attempted, since its revitalization in the 1950, to unify the rules of private international law. The efforts of the Conference have in the past centered around the fields of civil procedure, conflict of laws, the international sale of goods, products liability and international family law. Messrs. Droz and Dyer review the history of the achievements of the Conference in these fields and reflect on the problems and opportunities the Conference will encounter in the 1980 s

The Hague Conference and the Main Issues of Private International Law for the Eighties

The Hague Conference on Private International Law has attempted, since its revitalization in the 1950, to unify the rules of private international law. The efforts of the Conference have in the past centered around the fields of civil procedure, conflict of laws, the international sale of goods, products liability and international family law. Messrs. Droz and Dyer review the history of the achievements of the Conference in these fields and reflect on the problems and opportunities the Conference will encounter in the 1980 s

Helminths of \u3ci\u3ePeromyscus leucopus\u3c/i\u3e, \u3ci\u3eP. maniculatus\u3c/i\u3e, and \u3ci\u3eBlarina carolinensis\u3c/i\u3e from Southern Illinois

Helminths were recovered from 12 (12%) of 100 deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and 26 (24%) of 109 white-footed mice (P. leucopus) collected in 16 counties of southern Illinois. Helminths from deer mice included Choanotaenia peromysci (7.0%), Hymenolepis bennetti (2.0%), Postharmostomum helicis (1.0%), Physaloptera sp. (1.0%), Rictularia coloradensis (1.0%) and Moniliformis clarki (1.0%). Hymenolepis bennetti (1.8%), Physaloptera sp. (4.6%), and Rictularia coloradensis (20.0%) occurred in white-footed mice. C. peromysci and R. coloradensis revealed a high degree of host-specificity and along with Physaloptera showed some degree of habitat dependence. Infection rates were highest during the summer. Thirteen (65%) of 20 southern short-tailed shrews (Blarina carolinensis) were infected with Cryptocotylepis anthocephalus (40.0%), Brachylaima thompsoni (20.0%), Panopistus pricei (15.0%), Capillaria sp. (15.0%), Porrocaecum ensicaudatum (10.0%) and Porracaecum sp. (10.0%)