Disasters and investment: Assessing the performance of the underlying economy following a large-scale stimulus in the built environment

Disasters are often followed by a large-scale stimulus supporting the economy through the built environment, which can last years. During this time, official economic indicators tend to suggest the economy is doing well, but as activity winds down, the sentiment can quickly change. In response to the damaging 2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, the regional economy outpaced national economic growth rates for several years during the rebuild. The repair work on the built environment created years of elevated building activity. However, after the peak of the rebuilding activity, as economic and employment growth retracts below national growth, we are left with the question of how the underlying economy performs during large scale stimulus activity in the built environment. This paper assesses the performance of the underlying economy by quantifying the usual, demand-driven level of building activity at this time. Applying an Input–Output approach and excluding the economic benefit gained from the investment stimulus reveals the performance of the underlying economy. The results reveal a strong growing underlying economy, and while convergence was expected as the stimulus slowed down, the results found that growth had already crossed over for some time. The results reveal that the investment stimulus provides an initial 1.5% to 2% growth buffer from the underlying economy before the growth rates cross over. This supports short-term economic recovery and enables the underlying economy to transition away from a significant rebuild stimulus. Once the growth crosses over, five years after the disaster, economic growth in the underlying economy remains buoyant even if official regional economic data suggest otherwise

The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery

Orientation: Large-scale events such as disasters, wars and pandemics disrupt the economy by diverging resource allocation, which could alter employment growth within the economy during recovery. Research purpose: The literature on the disaster–economic nexus predominantly considers the aggregate performance of the economy, including the stimulus injection. This research assesses the employment transition following a disaster by removing this stimulus injection and evaluating the economy’s performance during recovery. Motivation for the study: The underlying economy’s performance without the stimulus’ benefit remains primarily unanswered. A single disaster event is used to assess the employment transition to guide future stimulus response for disasters. Research approach/design and method: Canterbury, New Zealand, was affected by a series of earthquakes in 2010–2011 and is used as a single case study. Applying the historical construction–economic relationship, a counterfactual level of economic activity is quantified and compared with official results. Using an input–output model to remove the economy-wide impact from the elevated activity reveals the performance of the underlying economy and employment transition during recovery. Main findings: The results indicate a return to a demand-driven level of building activity 10 years after the disaster. Employment transition is characterised by two distinct periods. The first 5 years are stimulus-driven, while the 5 years that follow are demand-driven from the underlying economy. After the initial period of elevated building activity, construction repositioned to its long-term level near 5% of value add. Practical/managerial implications: The level of building activity could be used to confidently assess the performance of regional economies following a destructive disaster. The study results argue for an incentive to redevelop the affected area as quickly as possible to mitigate the negative effect of the destruction and provide a stimulus for the economy. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to a growing stream of regional disaster economics research that assesses the economic effect using a single case study

Exploring complexity in unfitness to stand trial: the characteristics of defendants who are unfit, and the experiences of the professionals who assess them

Many countries worldwide recognise the fundamental right of a defendant to have a fair trial in a court of law. One aspect of this requires the individual to be participate effectively in the trial proceedings, that is to say, they must be fit to stand trial. Mental health difficulties and cognitive impairments can significantly impact an individual’s ability to stand trial, along with many other factors. The clinical and demographic profiles of defendants who are fit and unfit to stand trial has primarily attracted interest in the USA to date, yet there has been a growing focus on the field internationally. A systematic review was conducted to update the previous literature exploring differences in the characteristics of defendants who are found fit and unfit, whilst extending the geographical scope beyond North America. The findings suggest that defendants who are unfit to stand trial are more often diagnosed with a psychotic disorder, more often unemployed, and perform worse on several areas of cognition than those who are found to be fit to stand trial. The results of the review highlight the mixed quality of research within the field, and this therefore limited the conclusions that could be drawn. Whilst the initial identification of potentially unfit defendants lies with legal professionals, the ultimate decision as to an individuals’ unfitness to stand trial comes after the assessment by expert witnesses, namely psychologists and psychiatrists. In Scotland findings of unfitness are relatively rare, and whilst previous research has focussed on the role and experiences of legal professionals within the system, there no exploration of the views of expert witnesses. 6 psychologists and 6 psychiatrists were interviewed about their opinions and experiences of unfitness to stand trial in Scotland, and their narratives were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Two themes were generated: ‘getting it right’ and ‘‘not quite there’ which highlighted the complexities in the system as it stands. Implications of the results are discussed. The findings of this thesis portfolio represent important additions to the unfitness to stand trial literature. The systematic review updates previous literature and highlights the lack of consistency within the field, whilst the empirical project is the first of its’ kind to examine the experiences of healthcare professionals within the unfitness to stand trial system. Both parts of this portfolio discuss implications for the field and suggest directions for future research

The displacement of retail spending by students in host cities owing to Covid-19: A case study

The regulations implemented by governments in response to COVID-19 to limit the movement of people affected the nature of consumer spending. Consumption behaviour change, resulting from disasters or government-enforced regulation, is visible through spending displacement and response to fast-moving changes in circumstances. This study examines student spending in the host cities of universities and how a pandemic, such as COVID-19, may reduce or eliminate the spending injections into the economy through displaced spending. The pre-Covid-19 student survey spending results revealed that 81 per cent of students’ monthly retail spending takes place inside the host city with the rest spent outside. The Covid-19 enforced move towards online learning, and the potentially longer-term shifts from contact to online learning, will have a significant spending displacement effect on the host city. The results show that students are indifferent to spending during the week or on weekends and that most students are content to stay within the host city during weekends. No obvious time preference between the week and weekend for spending was found. The results show that student spending represents significant spending in the host city and for the time the COVID-19 restrictions remain in place, the spending displacement and loss of income for local businesses will be significant. The loss of student spending amounts to approximately R2 million daily. This not only highlights the cost of enforced lockdown measures, but also provides important indicators to university management upon considering replacing the existing tuition model of contact learning with one of online learning. Such a decision will lead to a significant negative impact on the economic activity of the Potchefstroom business community with far-reaching implications for employment, income generation and wealth disbursement in this university city

Novel sialic acid derivatives lock open the 150-loop of an influenza A virus group-1 sialidase

This work was supported by the Medical Research Council and the Scottish Funding Council.Influenza virus sialidase has an essential role in the virus’ life cycle. Two distinct groups of influenza A virus sialidases have been established, that differ in the flexibility of the ‘150-loop’, providing a more open active site in the apo form of the group-1 compared to group-2 enzymes. In this study we show, through a multidisciplinary approach, that novel sialic acid-based derivatives can exploit this structural difference and selectively inhibit the activity of group-1 sialidases. We also demonstrate that group-1 sialidases from drug-resistant mutant influenza viruses are sensitive to these designed compounds. Moreover, we have determined, by protein X-ray crystallography, that these inhibitors lock open the group-1 sialidase flexible 150-loop, in agreement with our molecular modelling prediction. This is the first direct proof that compounds may be developed to selectively target the pandemic A/H1N1, avian A/H5N1 and other group-1 sialidase-containing viruses, based on an open 150-loop conformation of the enzyme.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The effect of spatial unemployment on the neighbouring regions’ economies: A regional case study of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa

This article investigates the degree of spatial dependence of unemployment on neighbouring economies with possible implications for cross-border community development initiatives. The local municipalities within the KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa are used as a case study. Spatial econometric techniques are employed that incorporate dependence between regions in close geographical proximity. Disaggregated data and knowledge about the dynamics at a sub-regional level are usually unavailable for designing employment policies, especially for regional economies in under-developed countries. The results suggest an absence of spatial unemployment clustering and autocorrelation between neighbouring economies. The absence of externalities implies that little mutual dependence exists between adjacent economies, and therefore municipal unemployment patterns can be viewed as spatially random. The economy of a region is therefore fundamentally heterogeneous in that its unemployment rates are determined and influenced by its unique and diverse factors rather than neighbouring unemployment trends or patterns

A new affordable housing development and the adjacent housing-market response

Background: Cities continue to grapple with a rising demand for housing, which affects affordability and the well-being of its citizens. This growth continues to put pressure on the delivery of adequate, affordable housing in well-located areas while the availability of infrastructure and proximity to economic nodes remains a challenge. This has led to increasing infill development of medium-density to high-density affordable housing in greenfield areas located adjacent to higher-income neighbourhoods. Aim: This study investigates how a new affordable housing development influences the locational and structural values of the adjacent, existing housing market. Setting: Transactional data of residential sales for two areas in South Africa are used to measure the value change. Both areas are located within an urban setting next to an open, greenfield area that was redeveloped for affordable housing. Methods: Two case studies are used and analysed with hedonic pricing modelling to identify and measure the value change for the locational and structural characteristics before and after the development of affordable housing. Results: The results reveal a changing housing market as the locational and structural characteristics change in value, further highlighting the importance of careful planning that preserves the existing market and also supplies affordable housing. Conclusion: The value of several structural characteristics of properties will change, revealing just how consumer preference responds when affordable housing is introduced in an existing housing market. Distance to an affordable housing project continues to influence the house market value and careful consideration should be made when planning to integrate an affordable housing development in an existing neighbourhood

The triple blow effect: Retailing in an era of disasters and pandemics—The case of Christchurch, New Zealand

In the last two decades, the retail sector has experienced unprecedented upheaval, having severe implications for economic development and sustenance of traditional inner-city retail districts. In the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, this effect has been exacerbated by a series of earthquakes in 2010/2011 which destroyed much of the traditional retail precinct of the city. After extensive rebuild activity of the city’s infrastructure, the momentum of retailers returning to the inner city was initially sluggish but eventually gathered speed supported by increased international visitation. In early 2020, the return to retail normality came to an abrupt halt after the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses spending and transaction data to analyze the compounding impact of the earthquake’s aftermath, shift to online shopping, and the retail disruption in the Christchurch central retail precinct because of COVID-19. The findings illustrate how consumers through their spending respond to different types of external shocks, altering their consumption patterns and retail mode (offline and online) to cope with an ever-changing retail landscape. Each event triggers different spending patterns that have some similarities but also stark differences, having implications for a sustainable and resilient retail industry in Christchurch. Implications for urban retail precinct development are also discussed