Global Strategic Studies: A Manifesto

This contribution reflects on the state of strategic studies today and the criticism it has received in recent years, as being outdated and irrelevant. The authors formulate some premises for reinvigorating this field of inquiry by widening its scope and research agenda to do more justice to the wide variety of actors, perspectives and practices observable in the enterprise of strategy in our contemporary globalised world

Forecasting Sovereign Default risk with Merton’s Model

Merton's structural model for sovereigns is proven to be useful to analyze the default risk of a country. We are the first to investigate how fast CDS spreads react to changes in model inputs and outputs. CDS spread changes strongly correlate with exchange rate returns, which are an input to the model. But CDS spread changes on average react with a delay to changes in model outputs such as the distance to default, the default probability and model spreads. Hence contingency claim analysis for sovereigns provides useful predictions for CDS spreads

Empirical Studies on Sovereign Fixed Income Markets

Abstract This dissertation presents evidence of five studies showing that sovereign fixed income markets are not always price efficient. The emerging local currency debt market has grown to a large size of more than 1.5 trill ion US Dollars at the end of 2012. The factors that can predict developed market govern ment bond returns can also predict emerging market government bond returns. Changes in an adapted Merton model for government bonds can predict emerging market country credit default swap returns. The euro crisis has highlighted the importance of political risk in government bond markets. Changes in political risk can predict future government bond returns. Market participants should avoid bond markets with higher political risk and rather invest in bond markets with lower political risk. Government bond returns are 3.8 percentage points higher in the second half of the calendar year than in the first half of the calendar year. This seasonal pattern is largely explained by an opposite pattern in not seasonally adjusted U.S. inflation which is 3.0 percentage points lower in the second half of the calendar year. The swaption market has become the largest non-cleared interest rate derivative market with a (notional) size of 30 trillion USD as of April 2014. Although swaption models are different from equity options models, the swaption market contains volatility risk and jump risk premiums consistent with equity options. Combining the two risk premiums in a “riding the swaption curve” strategy provides a strong diversification

Deterrence: a continuation of emotional life with the admixture of violent means

History and International Relation

Rebels and Legitimacy; An Introduction

History and International Relation

Wetenschapstoets Defensienota ‘Sterker Nederland, Veiliger Europa': het doel heiligt de middelen? Of andersom?

Institutions, Decisions and Collective Behaviou