Identification of tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regions with varying linkage disequilibrium

We compared seven different tagging single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) programs in 10 regions with varied amounts of linkage disequilibrium (LD) and physical distance. We used the Collaborative Studies on the Genetics of Alcoholism dataset, part of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 14. We show that in regions with moderate to strong LD these programs are relatively consistent, despite different parameters and methods. In addition, we compared the selected SNPs in a multipoint linkage analysis for one region with strong LD. As the number of selected SNPs increased, the LOD score, mean information content, and type I error also increased

Investigation of altering single-nucleotide polymorphism density on the power to detect trait loci and frequency of false positive in nonparametric linkage analyses of qualitative traits

Genome-wide linkage analysis using microsatellite markers has been successful in the identification of numerous Mendelian and complex disease loci. The recent availability of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) maps provides a potentially more powerful option. Using the simulated and Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) datasets from the Genetics Analysis Workshop 14 (GAW14), we examined how altering the density of SNP marker sets impacted the overall information content, the power to detect trait loci, and the number of false positive results. For the simulated data we used SNP maps with density of 0.3 cM, 1 cM, 2 cM, and 3 cM. For the COGA data we combined the marker sets from Illumina and Affymetrix to create a map with average density of 0.25 cM and then, using a sub-sample of these markers, created maps with density of 0.3 cM, 0.6 cM, 1 cM, 2 cM, and 3 cM. For each marker set, multipoint linkage analysis using MERLIN was performed for both dominant and recessive traits derived from marker loci. Our results showed that information content increased with increased map density. For the homogeneous, completely penetrant traits we created, there was only a modest difference in ability to detect trait loci. Additionally, as map density increased there was only a slight increase in the number of false positive results when there was linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers. The presence of LD between markers may have led to an increased number of false positive regions but no clear relationship between regions of high LD and locations of false positive linkage signals was observed

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Identification of tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regions with varying linkage disequilibrium-0

<p><b>Copyright information:</b></p><p>Taken from "Identification of tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regions with varying linkage disequilibrium"</p><p></p><p>BMC Genetics 2005;6(Suppl 1):S73-S73.</p><p>Published online 30 Dec 2005</p><p>PMCID:PMC1866708.</p><p></p>ith strong confidence. Light blue regions are D' = 1.0 but decreased confidence. White regions are D' < 1 and state D' within the box. An X denotes that SNP was selected by the program. The gray shading in the HAPLOVIEW row represents the Gabriel blocks. The dark lines represent breaks between blocks for both HAPLOVIEW and HaploBlock Finder. For some chromosomes no blocks were identified and this is indicated by hatch marks across the SNPs

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks