Diminishing activity of recent solar cycles (22–24) and their impact on geospace

This study examines the variation of different energies linked with the Sun and the Earth’s magnetosphere-ionosphere systems for solar cycles (SCs) 22–24 for which the gradual decrease in the solar activity is noticed. Firstly, we investigated the variation of solar magnetic energy density (SMED) for SCs 21–24 and its relation to the solar activity. We observed distinct double peak structures in SMED for the past four SCs, 21–24. This feature is consistent with noticeable asymmetry in their two peaks. For SCs 22–24 a significant decrease is observed in the integrated SMED of each SC. This reduction is 37% from SCs 22 to 23 and 51% from SCs 23 to 24, which indicates substantial weakening of Sun’s magnetic field for SC 24. Also, the magnetic, kinetic, and thermal energy densities at the Earth’s bow-shock nose are found to be considerably low for the SC 24. We examined the solar wind Alfven speed, magnetosonic Mach number, solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling parameter (ε), and the Chapman-Ferraro magnetopause distance (LCF) for the SCs 22–24. The estimated maximum stand-off magnetopause distance is larger for SC 24 (LCF ≤ 10.6 RE) as compared to SC 23 (LCF ≤ 10.2 RE) and SC 22 (LCF ≤ 9.8 RE). The solar wind Alfven speeds during SCs 22 and 23 are in the same range and do not exceed ≈73 km/s whereas, it is below 57 km/s for SC 24. A lower bound of solar wind magnetosonic Mach number for SC 24 is larger (M ≥ 6.9) as compared to SC 22 (M ≥ 5.9) and SC 23 (M ≥ 6). We noticed weakening in the energy coupling parameter for SC 24, which resulted in substantial (15%–38%) decrease in average strength of high latitude ionospheric (AE), low latitude magnetospheric (Dst) and equatorial ionospheric (EEJ) current systems in comparison with SC 23. Subsequently, a reduction of ≈30% is manifested in the high latitude Joule heating for SC 24. Overall this study indicates the significant step down in various energies at Sun, Earth’s bow-shock, and near Earth environment for current SC 24, which will have important implication on our Earth’s atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system

A new method for forecasting the solar cycle descent time

The prediction of an extended solar minimum is extremely important because of the severity of its impact on the near-earth space. Here, we present a new method for predicting the descent time of the forthcoming solar cycle (SC); the method is based on the estimation of the Shannon entropy. We use the daily and monthly smoothed international sunspot number. For each nth SC, we compute the parameter [Tpre]n by using information on the descent and ascent times of the n − 3th and nth SCs, respectively. We find that [Tpre] of nth SC and entropy can be effectively used to predict the descent time of the n + 2th SC. The correlation coefficient between [Td]n+2 − [Tpre]n and [E]n is found to be 0.95. Using these parameters the prediction model is developed. Solar magnetic field and F10.7 flux data are available for SCs 21–22 and 19–23, respectively, and they are also utilized to get estimates of the Shannon entropy. It is found that the Shannon entropy, a measure of randomness inherent in the SC, is reflected well in the various proxies of the solar activity (viz sunspot, magnetic field, F10.7 flux). The applicability and accuracy of the prediction model equation is verified by way of association of least entropy values with the Dalton minimum. The prediction model equation also provides possible criteria for the occurrence of unusually longer solar minima

Non-stationary ETAS to model earthquake occurrences affected by episodic aseismic transients

Abstract We present a non-stationary epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model in which the usual assumption of stationary background rate is relaxed. Such a model could be used for modeling seismic sequences affected by aseismic transients such as fluid/magma intrusion, slow slip earthquakes (SSEs), etc. The non-stationary background rate is expressed as a linear combination of B-splines, and a method is proposed that allows for simultaneous estimation of background rate as well as other ETAS model parameters. We also present an extension to this non-stationary ETAS model where an adaptive roughness penalty function is used and consequently provides better estimates of rapidly varying background rate functions. The performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated on synthetic catalogs and an application to detect earthquake swarms (possibly associated with SSEs) in Hikurangi margin (North Island, New Zealand) is presented

Diminishing activity of recent solar cycles (22–24) and their impact on geospace

This study examines the variation of different energies linked with the Sun and the Earth’s magnetosphere-ionosphere systems for solar cycles (SCs) 22–24 for which the gradual decrease in the solar activity is noticed. Firstly, we investigated the variation of solar magnetic energy density (SMED) for SCs 21–24 and its relation to the solar activity. We observed distinct double peak structures in SMED for the past four SCs, 21–24. This feature is consistent with noticeable asymmetry in their two peaks. For SCs 22–24 a significant decrease is observed in the integrated SMED of each SC. This reduction is 37% from SCs 22 to 23 and 51% from SCs 23 to 24, which indicates substantial weakening of Sun’s magnetic field for SC 24. Also, the magnetic, kinetic, and thermal energy densities at the Earth’s bow-shock nose are found to be considerably low for the SC 24. We examined the solar wind Alfven speed, magnetosonic Mach number, solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling parameter (ε), and the Chapman-Ferraro magnetopause distance (LCF) for the SCs 22–24. The estimated maximum stand-off magnetopause distance is larger for SC 24 (LCF ≤ 10.6 RE) as compared to SC 23 (LCF ≤ 10.2 RE) and SC 22 (LCF ≤ 9.8 RE). The solar wind Alfven speeds during SCs 22 and 23 are in the same range and do not exceed ≈73 km/s whereas, it is below 57 km/s for SC 24. A lower bound of solar wind magnetosonic Mach number for SC 24 is larger (M ≥ 6.9) as compared to SC 22 (M ≥ 5.9) and SC 23 (M ≥ 6). We noticed weakening in the energy coupling parameter for SC 24, which resulted in substantial (15%–38%) decrease in average strength of high latitude ionospheric (AE), low latitude magnetospheric (Dst) and equatorial ionospheric (EEJ) current systems in comparison with SC 23. Subsequently, a reduction of ≈30% is manifested in the high latitude Joule heating for SC 24. Overall this study indicates the significant step down in various energies at Sun, Earth’s bow-shock, and near Earth environment for current SC 24, which will have important implication on our Earth’s atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system

MOESM1 of Non-stationary ETAS to model earthquake occurrences affected by episodic aseismic transients

Additional file 1. Goodness-of-fit tests for the modeled GeoNet catalog; Tables S1–S5 and Figure S1

The Ionospheric view of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake seismic source: the first 60 seconds of the rupture

International audienceUsing the specific satellite line of sight geometry and station location with respect to the source, thomas et al. [Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30476-9] developed a method to infer the detection altitude of co-seismic ionospheric perturbations observed in Global Positioning System (GPS)-Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements during the Mw 7.4 March 9, 2011 Sanriku-Oki earthquake, a foreshock of the Mw 9.0, March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Therefore, in addition to the spatio-temporal evolution, the altitude information of the seismically induced ionospheric signatures can also be derived now using GPS-TEC technique. However, this method considered a point source, in terms of a small rupture area (~90 km) during the Tohoku foreshock, for the generation of seismo-acoustic waves in 3D space and time. In this article, we explore further efficacy of GPS-TEC technique during co-seismic ionospheric sounding for an extended seismic source varying simultaneously in space and time akin to the rupture of Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki mainshock and the limitations to be aware of in such context. With the successful execution of the method by Thomas et al. during the Tohoku-Oki mainshock, we not only estimate the detection altitude of GPS-TEC derived co-seismic ionospheric signatures but also delineate, for the first time, distinct ground seismic sources responsible for the generation of these perturbations, which evolved during the initial 60 seconds of the rupture. Simulated tsunami water excitation over the fault region, to envisage the evolution of crustal deformation in space and time along the rupture, formed the base for our model analysis. Further, the simulated water displacement assists our proposed novel approach to delineate the ground seismic sources entirely based on the ensuing ionospheric perturbations which were otherwise not well reproduced by the ground rupture process within this stipulated time. Despite providing the novel information on the segmentation of the Tohoku-Oki seismic source based on the co-seismic ionospheric response to the initial 60 seconds of the event, our model could not reproduce precise rupture kinematics over this period. This shortcoming is also credited to the specific GPS satellite-station viewing geometries

Mapping the Impact of Non-Tectonic Forcing mechanisms on GNSS measured Coseismic Ionospheric Perturbations

International audienceGlobal Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measured Total Electron Content (TEC) is now widely used to study the near and far-field coseismic ionospheric perturbations (CIP). The generation of near field (~500–600 km surrounding an epicenter) CIP is mainly attributed to the coseismic crustal deformation. The azimuthal distribution of near field CIP may contain information on the seismic/tectonic source characteristics of rupture propagation direction and thrust orientations. However, numerous studies cautioned that before deriving the listed source characteristics based on coseismic TEC signatures, the contribution of non-tectonic forcing mechanisms needs to be examined. These mechanisms which are operative at ionospheric altitudes are classified as the i) orientation between the geomagnetic field and tectonically induced atmospheric wave perturbations ii) orientation between the GNSS satellite line of sight (LOS) geometry and coseismic atmospheric wave perturbations and iii) ambient electron density gradients. So far, the combined effects of these mechanisms have not been quantified. We propose a 3D geometrical model, based on acoustic ray tracing in space and time to estimate the combined effects of non-tectonic forcing mechanisms on the manifestations of GNSS measured near field CIP. Further, this model is tested on earthquakes occurring at different latitudes with a view to quickly quantify the collective effects of these mechanisms. We presume that this simple and direct 3D model would induce and enhance a proper perception among the researchers about the tectonic source characteristics derived based on the corresponding ionospheric manifestations

Revelation of early detection of co-seismic ionospheric perturbations in GPS-TEC from realistic modelling approach: Case study

International audienceGPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) is an integrated quantity; hence it is difficult to relate the detection of ionospheric perturbations in TEC to a precise altitude. As TEC is weighted by the maximum ionospheric density, the corresponding altitude (hmF2) is, generally, assumed as the perturbation detection altitude. To investigate the validity of this assumption in detail, we conduct an accurate analysis of the GPS-TEC measured early ionospheric signatures related to the vertical surface displacement of the Mw 7.4 Sanriku-Oki earthquake (Sanriku-Oki Tohoku foreshock). Using 3D acoustic ray tracing model to describe the evolution of the propagating seismo-acoustic wave in space and time, we demonstrate how to infer the detection altitude of these early signatures in TEC. We determine that the signatures can be detected at altitudes up to ~130 km below the hmF2. This peculiar behaviour is attributed to the satellite line of sight (LOS) geometry and station location with respect to the source, which allows one to sound the co-seismic ionospheric signatures directly above the rupture area. We show that the early onset times correspond to crossing of the LOS with the acoustic wavefront at lower ionospheric altitudes. To support the proposed approach, we further reconstruct the seismo-acoustic induced ionospheric signatures for a moving satellite in the presence of a geomagnetic field. Both the 3D acoustic ray tracing model and the synthetic waveforms from the 3D coupled model substantiate the observed onset time of the ionospheric signatures. Moreover, our simple 3D acoustic ray tracing approach allows one to extend this analysis to azimuths different than that of the station-source line