On the expected number of equilibria in a multi-player multi-strategy evolutionary game

In this paper, we analyze the mean number $E(n,d)$ of internal equilibria in a general $d$-player $n$-strategy evolutionary game where the agents' payoffs are normally distributed. First, we give a computationally implementable formula for the general case. Next we characterize the asymptotic behavior of $E(2,d)$, estimating its lower and upper bounds as $d$ increases. Then we provide an exact formula for $E(n,2)$. As a consequence, we show that in both cases the probability to see the maximal possible number of equilibria tends to zero when $d$ or $n$ respectively goes to infinity. Finally, for larger $n$ and $d$, numerical results are provided and discussed

Recalibration of the limiting antigen avidity EIA to determine mean duration of recent infection in divergent HIV-1 subtypes.

ArticleBackground: Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus. Methods: A total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs. Results: Using different statistical methods,MDRI values ranged from 88-94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177-183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing formisclassification among long-terminfections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6%to 2.5%at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C). Conclusions: Based on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118-142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.This research has been supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

CDMS, Supersymmetry and Extra Dimensions

The CDMS experiment aims to directly detect massive, cold dark matter particles originating from the Milky Way halo. Charge and lattice excitations are detected after a particle scatters in a Ge or Si crystal kept at ~30 mK, allowing to separate nuclear recoils from the dominating electromagnetic background. The operation of 12 detectors in the Soudan mine for 75 live days in 2004 delivered no evidence for a signal, yielding stringent limits on dark matter candidates from supersymmetry and universal extra dimensions. Thirty Ge and Si detectors are presently installed in the Soudan cryostat, and operating at base temperature. The run scheduled to start in 2006 is expected to yield a one order of magnitude increase in dark matter sensitivity.Comment: To be published in the proceedings of the 7th UCLA symposium on sources and detection of dark matter and dark energy in the universe, Marina del Rey, Feb 22-24, 200

Simulating future flows and salinity intrusion using combined one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling-the case of Hau River, Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Salinity intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) has been exacerbated significantly in recent years by the changing upstream inflows, sea level rise resulting from climate change, and socioeconomic development activities. Despite significant damage to agricultural production and freshwater supplies, quantitative assessments of future flows and salinization remain limited due to lack of observation data and modelling tools to represent a highly complex hydraulic network. In this study, we combine 1D-MIKE 11 and 2D-MIKE 21 hydrodynamic models to simulate future flows, water level and salinity intrusion in the Hau River-one main river branch in the Mekong Delta. Future hydrological changes are simulated under multiple scenarios of upstream inflow changes, climate change and sea level rise for the 2036-2065 period. We first use the 1D-MIKE 11 to simulate the flow regime throughout the whole VMD using upstream discharges, outlet water levels and rainfall data as boundary conditions. Output from this step is then used to force the 2D-MIKE 21 model to estimate flow velocity, water level and salinity concentration in the Hau River, focusing on the salinization-prone section between Can Tho, Dinh An, and Tran De estuaries. Simulation results show that salinization will increase substantially, characterized by (1) higher salinity intrusion length under spring tide from 6.78% to 7.97%, and 8.62% to 10.89% under neap tide; and (2) progression of the salinity isohalines towards the upper Mekong Delta, from 3.29 km to 3.92 km for 1 practical salinity unit (PSU) under spring tide, and 4.36 km to 4.65 km for 1 PSU concentration under neap tide. Additionally, we found that salinity intrusion will make it more difficult to re-establish the freshwater condition in the estuary in the future. In particular, the flushing time required to replace saltwater with freshwater at the estuaries tends to increase to between 7.27 h for maximum discharge of 4500 m3/s and 58.95 h for discharge of 400 m3/s under the most extreme scenario. Increasing salinization along the Hau River will have important consequences for crop production, freshwater supplies and freshwater ecosystems, therefore requiring timely adaptation responses

Redefining Ceratocystis and allied genera

AbstractThe genus Ceratocystis was established in 1890 and accommodates many important fungi. These include serious plant pathogens, significant insect symbionts and agents of timber degradation that result in substantial economic losses. Virtually since its type was described from sweet potatoes, the taxonomy of Ceratocystis has been confused and vigorously debated. In recent years, particulary during the last two decades, it has become very obvious that this genus includes a wide diversity of very different fungi. These have been roughly lumped together due to their similar morphological structures that have clearly evolved through convergent evolution linked to an insect-associated ecology. As has been true for many other groups of fungi, the emergence of DNA-based sequence data and associated phylogenetic inferences, have made it possible to robustly support very distinct boundaries defined by morphological characters and ecological differences. In this study, DNA-sequence data for three carefully selected gene regions (60S, LSU, MCM7) were generated for 79 species residing in the aggregate genus Ceratocystis sensu lato and these data were subjected to rigorous phylogenetic analyses. The results made it possible to distinguish seven major groups for which generic names have been chosen and descriptions either provided or emended. The emended genera included Ceratocystis sensu stricto, Chalaropsis, Endoconidiophora, Thielaviopsis, and Ambrosiella, while two new genera, Davidsoniella and Huntiella, were described. In total, 30 new combinations have been made. This major revision of the generic boundaries in the Ceratocystidaceae will simplify future treatments and work with an important group of fungi including distantly related species illogically aggregated under a single name