Evidence for extra radiation? Profile likelihood versus Bayesian posterior

A number of recent analyses of cosmological data have reported hints for the presence of extra radiation beyond the standard model expectation. In order to test the robustness of these claims under different methods of constructing parameter constraints, we perform a Bayesian posterior-based and a likelihood profile-based analysis of current data. We confirm the presence of a slight discrepancy between posterior- and profile-based constraints, with the marginalised posterior preferring higher values of the effective number of neutrino species N_eff. This can be traced back to a volume effect occurring during the marginalisation process, and we demonstrate that the effect is related to the fact that cosmic microwave background (CMB) data constrain N_eff only indirectly via the redshift of matter-radiation equality. Once present CMB data are combined with external information about, e.g., the Hubble parameter, the difference between the methods becomes small compared to the uncertainty of N_eff. We conclude that the preference of precision cosmological data for excess radiation is "real" and not an artifact of a specific choice of credible/confidence interval construction.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures; v2: discussion section expanded and references added, version accepted for publication by JCA

Detection of relic gravitational waves in the CMB: Prospects for CMBPol mission

Detection of relic gravitational waves, through their imprint in the cosmic microwave background radiation, is one of the most important tasks for the planned CMBPol mission. In the simplest viable theoretical models the gravitational wave background is characterized by two parameters, the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ and the tensor spectral index $n_t$. In this paper, we analyze the potential joint constraints on these two parameters, $r$ and $n_t$, using the potential observations of the CMBPol mission, which is expected to detect the relic gravitational waves if $r\gtrsim0.001$. The influence of the contaminations, including cosmic weak lensing, various foreground emissions, and systematical errors, is discussed.Comment: 26 pages, 19 figures, 4 tables; JCAP in pres

Causality and Primordial Tensor Modes

We introduce the real space correlation function of $B$-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as a probe of superhorizon tensor perturbations created by inflation. By causality, any non-inflationary mechanism for gravitational wave production after reheating, like global phase transitions or cosmic strings, must have vanishing correlations for angular separations greater than the angle subtended by the particle horizon at recombination, i.e. $\theta \gtrsim 2^\circ$. Since ordinary $B$-modes are defined non-locally in terms of the Stokes parameters $Q$ and $U$ and therefore don't have to respect causality, special care is taken to define `causal $\tilde B$-modes' for the analysis. We compute the real space $\tilde B$-mode correlation function for inflation and discuss its detectability on superhorizon scales where it provides an unambiguous test of inflationary gravitational waves. The correct identification of inflationary tensor modes is crucial since it relates directly to the energy scale of inflation. Wrongly associating tensor modes from causal seeds with inflation would imply an incorrect inference of the energy scale of inflation. We find that the superhorizon $\tilde B$-mode signal is above cosmic variance for the angular range $2^\circ < \theta < 4^\circ$ and is therefore in principle detectable. In practice, the signal will be challenging to measure since it requires accurately resolving the recombination peak of the $B$-mode power spectrum. However, a future CMB satellite (CMBPol), with noise level $\Delta_P \simeq 1\mu$K-arcmin and sufficient resolution to efficiently correct for lensing-induced $B$-modes, should be able to detect the signal at more than 3$\sigma$ if the tensor-to-scalar ratio isn't smaller than $r \simeq 0.01$.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figure

Cosmic string parameter constraints and model analysis using small scale Cosmic Microwave Background data

We present a significant update of the constraints on the Abelian Higgs cosmic string tension by cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, enabled both by the use of new high-resolution CMB data from suborbital experiments as well as the latest results of the WMAP satellite, and by improved predictions for the impact of Abelian Higgs cosmic strings on the CMB power spectra. The new cosmic string spectra (presented in a previous work) were improved especially for small angular scales, through the use of larger Abelian Higgs string simulations and careful extrapolation. If Abelian Higgs strings are present then we find improved bounds on their contribution to the CMB anisotropies, f10< 0.095, and on their tension, G\mu< 0.57 x 10^-6, both at 95% confidence level using WMAP7 data; and f10 < 0.048 and G\mu < 0.42 x 10^-6 using all the CMB data. We also find that using all the CMB data, a scale invariant initial perturbation spectrum, ns=1, is now disfavoured at 2.4\sigma\ even if strings are present. A Bayesian model selection analysis no longer indicates a preference for strings.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures; Minor corrections, matches published versio

Reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum from CMB data

Measuring the deviation from scale invariance of the primordial power spectrum is a critical test of inflation. In this paper we reconstruct the shape of the primordial power spectrum of curvature perturbations from the cosmic microwave background data, including the 7-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope 148 GHz data, by using a binning method of a cubic spline interpolation in log-log space. We find that the power-law spectrum is preferred by the data and that the Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is disfavored at 95% confidence level. These conclusions hold with and without allowing for tensor modes, however the simpler model without tensors is preferred by the data. We do not find evidence for a feature in the primordial power spectrum - in full agreement with generic predictions from cosmological inflation.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, JCAP style, published versio

How light can the lightest neutralino be?

In this talk we summarize previous work on mass bounds of a light neutralino in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model. We show that without the GUT relation between the gaugino mass parameters M_1 and M_2, the mass of the lightest neutralino is essentially unconstrained by collider bounds and precision observables. We conclude by considering also the astrophysics and cosmology of a light neutralino.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the 16th International Symposium on Particles, Strings and Cosmology (PASCOS2010), Valencia (Spain), July 19th - 23rd, 201

Running Spectral Index from Inflation with Modulations

We argue that a large negative running spectral index, if confirmed, might suggest that there are abundant structures in the inflaton potential, which result in a fairly large (both positive and negative) running of the spectral index at all scales. It is shown that the center value of the running spectral index suggested by the recent CMB data can be easily explained by an inflaton potential with superimposed periodic oscillations. In contrast to cases with constant running, the perturbation spectrum is enhanced at small scales, due to the repeated modulations. We mention that such features at small scales may be seen by 21 cm observations in the future.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, v2: published in JCA

Probing Cosmic Strings with Satellite CMB measurements

We study the problem of searching for cosmic string signal patterns in the present high resolution and high sensitivity observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). This article discusses a technique capable of recognizing Kaiser-Stebbins effect signatures in total intensity anisotropy maps, and shows that the biggest factor that produces confusion is represented by the acoustic oscillation features of the scale comparable to the size of horizon at recombination. Simulations show that the distribution of null signals for pure Gaussian maps converges to a $\chi^2$ distribution, with detectability threshold corresponding to a string induced step signal with an amplitude of about 100 \muK which corresponds to a limit of roughly $G\mu < 1.5\times 10^{-6}$. We study the statistics of spurious detections caused by extra-Galactic and Galactic foregrounds. For diffuse Galactic foregrounds, which represents the dominant source of contamination, we derive sky masks outlining the available region of the sky where the Galactic confusion is sub-dominant, specializing our analysis to the case represented by the frequency coverage and nominal sensitivity and resolution of the Planck experiment.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, to be published in JCA

Primordial Black Holes, Eternal Inflation, and the Inflationary Parameter Space after WMAP5

We consider constraints on inflation driven by a single, minimally coupled scalar field in the light of the WMAP5 dataset, as well as ACBAR and the SuperNova Legacy Survey. We use the Slow Roll Reconstruction algorithm to derive optimal constraints on the inflationary parameter space. The scale dependence in the slope of the scalar spectrum permitted by WMAP5 is large enough to lead to viable models where the small scale perturbations have a substantial amplitude when extrapolated to the end of inflation. We find that excluding parameter values which would cause the overproduction of primordial black holes or even the onset of eternal inflation leads to potentially significant constraints on the slow roll parameters. Finally, we present a more sophisticated approach to including priors based on the total duration of inflation, and discuss the resulting restrictions on the inflationary parameter space.Comment: v2: version published in JCAP. Minor clarifications and references adde

Cosmological constraints on neutrino plus axion hot dark matter: Update after WMAP-5

We update our previous constraints on two-component hot dark matter (axions and neutrinos), including the recent WMAP 5-year data release. Marginalising over sum m_nu provides m_a < 1.02 eV (95% C.L.) for the axion mass. In the absence of axions we find sum m_nu < 0.63 eV (95% C.L.).Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, uses iopart.cls; v2 matches published versio