Aggregating labour supply and feedback effects in microsimulation

This paper extends behavioural microsimulation modelling so that third round effects of a policy change can be simulated. The first round effects relate to fixed hours of work, while second round effects allow for changes in desired hours of work at unchanged wages. These allow for endogenous changes to the distribution of wage rates resulting from the labour supply responses to tax changes. This is achieved using the concept of an aggregate ѳupply response scheduleҬ which identifies the extent to which average labour supply responds to a proportional change in wage rates. The third round effect is obtained after re-running a microsimulation model with a suitable modification to individuals' wage rates. The method is illustrated using the MITTS behavioural microsimulation model.

Modelling local government budgetary choices under expenditure limitation

The analysis of the expenditure decisions of English local authorities has assumed great importance as central government has sought to exercise increasing control over the activities of local government. In particular, in a variety of contexts, central government has sought to estimate from empirical observation what a local authority ‘ought’ to spend. Unfortunately, such an undertaking is becoming increasingly complex, as the influence of previous government policy itself assumes greater importance in local authority expenditure decisions. For example, central government grant allocations to local authorities are based on a simple statistical analysis of previous spending patterns. These grant allocations will to some extent influence current spending. The expenditure responses in turn are likely to affect future grant allocations, and so the cycle continues. Such circularity formed an important component of criticisms of current local government finance arrangements by the Audit Commission (1993) and the House of Commons Select Committee on the Environment (1994). This paper seeks to underline the difficulties by demonstrating the statistical methods that are required to model spendingpatterns amongst non-metropolitan districts satisfactorily. The structure of the paper is as follows.

Should we subsidise childcare, and if so, how?

The subsidy of childcare for pre-school-age children has moved rapidly up the political agenda in the UK, and government policy has developed considerably in this area. In his 1990 Budget, John Major introduced income tax relief for childcare provided by the employer at the workplace. Since October 1994, certain family credit claimants have been entitled to deduct up to £40 per week of childcare expenditure from their income for the family credit means test, and from April 1997, all parents of four-year-olds will be eligible for an annual £1,100 childcare voucher to be used as full or part payment for childcare services. The Labour Party has also long advocated increased state-funded childcare in the form of nursery education for three- and four-year-olds. It favours local education authorities (LEAs) setting targets for the provision of nursery education and points to certain LEAs that already provide nursery education for 90 per cent of three- and four-year- olds. The Liberal Democrats have promised to increase public education expenditure by £2 billion (7 per cent), with the first priority for this extra money being nursery education services.

Gamma-ray energy deposition in fast nuclear reactors

Imperial Users onl

What is a local innovation platform?

This policy brief is prepared in English, Amharic and Oromiffa languages