Lógica fuzzy e regressão logística na decisão para prática de cintilografia das paratiróides

OBJECTIVE: To develop and compare two mathematical models, the first one based on logistic regression and the second one on fuzzy sets theory, aiming at defining a laboratory testing-based measure of indication for submitting patients to parathyroid scintigraphy. METHODS: One-hundred and ninety-four patients with serum calcium and parathyroid hormone available were identified from the data registry of parathyroid scintigraphy of a diagnostic laboratory in São Paulo, Southern Brazil, in the period between January 2000 and December 2004. The logistic regression model was developed using SPSS and the fuzzy model was developed using MatLab software programs. The performances of both models were compared using ROC curves. RESULTS: The performance of both models were statistically different (p=0.026). The area under the ROC curves were 0.862 (95% CI: 0.811-0.913) for the logistic regression model and 0.887 (95% CI: 0.840-0.933) for the fuzzy model. The latter had the advantage of allowing to making decisions based on parathyroid hormone information within a non-discriminating range of calcium values. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical model based on fuzzy sets theory seemed to be more useful than the logistic model in the decision making for scintigraphy indication. However, inferences can be made only regarding model comparison and not for parathyroid scintigraphy itself since the data analyzed was not representative of any population.OBJETIVO: Desenvolver e comparar dois modelos matemáticos, um deles baseado em regressão logística e o outro em teoria de conjuntos fuzzy, para definir a indicação para a realização do exame cintilográfico a partir de resultados dos exames laboratoriais. MÉTODOS: Foram identificados 194 pacientes que tiveram cálcio e paratormônio séricos medidos a partir da base de registros de cintilografia de paratiróides realizadas em laboratório de diagnóstico de São Paulo, no período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2004. O modelo de regressão logística foi desenvolvido utilizando-se o software SPSS e o modelo fuzzy, o Matlab. A performance dos modelos foi comparada utilizando-se curvas ROC. RESULTADOS: Os modelos apresentaram diferenças estatisticamente significantes (p=0,026) nos seus desempenhos. A área sob a curva ROC do modelo de regressão logística foi de 0,862 (IC 95%: 0,811-0,913) e do modelo de lógica fuzzy foi 0,887 (IC 95%: 0,840-0,933). Este último destacou-se como particularmente útil porque, ao contrário do modelo logístico, mostrou capacidade de utilizar informações de paratormônio em intervalo em que os valores de cálcio mostraram-se pouco discriminantes. CONCLUSÕES: O modelo matemático baseado em teoria de conjuntos fuzzy pareceu ser mais adequado do que o baseado em regressão logística como método para decisão da realização de cintilografia das paratiróides. Todavia, sendo resultado de um exercício metodológico, inferências sobre o comportamento do objeto podem ser impróprias, dada a não representatividade populacional dos dados

Technologies for the investigation of CAD: association between scientific publications and clinical use

FUNDAMENTO: Apesar de algumas evidências sugerirem associação entre a exposição de uma tecnologia na literatura científica e sua difusão na prática clínica, poucos estudos avaliaram essa associação. OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo é analisar se o padrão de publicação científica sobre duas tecnologias competitivas utilizadas na avaliação da doença arterial coronária (DAC) reflete o que ocorre na prática clínica. MÉTODOS: Avaliou-se o número de artigos científicos publicados anualmente na literatura médica (interesse científico global na tecnologia) sobre duas tecnologias utilizadas na avaliação da doença arterial coronária: tomografia computadorizada por feixe de elétrons e tomografia computadorizada com múltiplos detectores. Foi também analisado o número de países que publicam anualmente artigos científicos sobre essas tecnologias (interesse geográfico na tecnologia). RESULTADOS: A tomografia computadorizada por feixe de elétrons (electron beam computed tomography - EBCT) apresentou ápice de "interesse científico global" em 2001, com 127 artigos publicados. Após esse ápice, o "interesse científico global" diminuiu cerca de 50% em 2008. Em oposição, o "interesse científico global" pela tomografia computadorizada com múltiplos detectores (multidetector computed tomography - MDCT) aumentou progressivamente até 2007, com 454 artigos publicados nesse ano. O "interesse científico geográfico" pela EBCT teve ápice em 2002, com 14 países publicando sobre essa tecnologia. Após esse ápice, "o interesse científico geográfico" declinou em quase 25% até 2008, com 11 países publicando artigos sobre essa tecnologia. Em oposição, o "interesse científico geográfico" pela MDCT aumentou progressivamente até 2008, com 37 países publicando artigos sobre ela. CONCLUSÃO: A literatura científica médica é compatível com a substituição da EBCT pela MDCT na avaliação da DAC.BACKGROUND: Although some evidence suggests an association between a technology exposure in the literature and its dissemination in clinical practice, few studies have evaluated such association. OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether the pattern of scientific publication on two competitive technologies used in the assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD) reflects what occurs in clinical practice. METHODS: The number of scientific articles published annually in the medical literature (global scientific interest in technology) on two technologies used in the assessment of CAD was evaluated: electron beam computed tomography (EBCT) and multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). The number of countries that annually publish scientific articles about these technologies (geographic interest in the technology) was also analyzed. RESULTS: The EBCT showed a peak of "global scientific interest" in 2001, with 127 published articles. After this peak, the "global scientific interest" decreased by around 50% in 2008. In opposition, the "global scientific interest" for MDCT progressively increased up to 2007, with 454 articles published in that year. The "geographic scientific interest" by EBCT showed a peak in 2002, with 14 countries publishing about this technology. After this peak, the "geographic scientific interest" decreased by almost 25% up to 2008, with 11 countries publishing about this technology. In opposition, the "geographic scientific interest" by MDCT progressively increased up to 2008, with 37 countries publishing articles about it. CONCLUSION: The medical scientific literature is compatible with the substitution of EBCT by MDCT in the assessment of CAD

Establishment of diagnostic procedures for coronary artery disease based on fuzzy set theory applied to clinical epidemiological data and treadmill electrocardiography and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy results.

A doença arterial coronária (DAC) é uma das principais causas de morte no mundo. A detecção precoce é importante para prevenir este tipo de ocorrência. O método considerado padrão ouro para avaliar obstruções parciais críticas é a cinecoronariografia, uma técnica invasiva, trabalhosa e cara. Existem métodos não invasivos que podem ser utilizados para estabelecer este diagnóstico. A base do diagnóstico não invasivo da DAC tem sido a análise seqüencial dos fatores de risco e dos resultados do teste ergométrico e da cintilografia de perfusão do miocárdio. Muitos pesquisadores demonstraram que a utilização diagnóstica apropriada da cintilografia de perfusão do miocárdio e da cinecoronariografia é naqueles pacientes que têm probabilidade intermediária e alta para DAC, respectivamente. Apesar desta informação ser útil, ela é utilizada de forma limitada na prática clínica, devido à dificuldade em classificar apropriadamente os pacientes. Desde os artigos pioneiros de Lotfi A. Zadeh, a lógica fuzzy tem sido aplicada em diversas áreas. Ela é especialmente útil nas aplicações médicas, uma vez que as informações utilizadas no processo de decisão são incertas. Neste trabalho, foram desenvolvidos e testados modelos baseados na teoria de conjuntos fuzzy, para selecionar os pacientes que devem ser submetidos a cintilografia de perfusão do miocárdio e a cinecoronariografia. Utilizou-se grupo de 1053 pacientes para desenvolver os modelos e outro de 1045 para testá-los. Comparou-se o desempenho dos modelos com o de médicos especialistas utilizando-se curvas ROC e observou-se que os modelos fuzzy têm desempenho igual ou superior a estes especialistas na seleção dos pacientes que devem ser submetidos a cintilografia e cinecoronariografia, podendo, portanto, ser de grande auxílio ao médico na realização desta tarefa.Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a worldwide leading cause of death. Early detection is important to prevent such sort of outcome. The gold standard method for evaluating critical partial occlusions is coronary arteriography, a catheterization technique which is invasive, time consuming, and costly. There are noninvasive approaches for early detection of CAD. The basis for the noninvasive diagnosis of CAD has been laid in a sequential analysis of the risk factors, and the results of treadmill electrocardiography and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Many investigators have demonstrated that appropriate diagnostic applications of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy and coronary arteriography are in patients who have an intermediate and a high likelihood of disease, respectively. Although this information is useful, it is only partially utilized in the clinical practice due to the difficulty to properly classify the patients. Since the seminal article by Lotfi A. Zadeh fuzzy logic has been applied in numerous areas. It is especially suited to medical applications, since much of the information required for decision-making is uncertain. In this paper, we proposed and tested models to select patients that have to undergo myocardial perfusion scintigraphy and coronary arteriography based on fuzzy set theory. It was used a group of 1053 patients to develop the models and another one of 1045 patients to test them. It was utilized ROC curves to compare the performance of the models with the ones of experts physicians and it was observed that the fuzzy models have a performance equal or superior to the experts in the selection of the patients that should perform scintigraphy and coronary arteriography, therefore, they could be a useful tool to assist the general practitioner in this task

Survival analysis of acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients with and without hepatitis C virus infection at a reference center for sexually transmitted diseases/acquired immune deficiency syndrome in São Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: Survival of patients with acquired immune deficiency syndrome has improved with combination antiretroviral therapy; mortality due to liver diseases, however, has also increased in these patients. Objectives: To estimate the accumulated probability of survival in human immunodeficiency virus–hepatitis C virus coinfected and non-coinfected patients and to investigate factors related to acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients’ survival. Methods: Non-concurrent cohort study using data from surveillance information systems of acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients over 13 years of age. Hepatitis C and B, human immunodeficiency virus exposure category, CD4+ T cell count, age group, schooling, race, sex, and four acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosis periods were studied. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox model with estimates of the hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval were used. Results: Of the total 2864 individuals included, with median age was 35 years, 219 died (7.5%), and 358 (12.5%) were human immunodeficiency virus–hepatitis C virus coinfected. The accumulated probability of survival in human immunodeficiency virus–hepatitis C virus coinfected patients, after acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosis, at 120 months, was 0%, 38.9%, 83.8% in 1986–1993, 1994–1996, 1997–2002, respectively, and 92.8% at 96 months in 2003–2010; survival in non-coinfected patients at 120 months was 80%, 90.2%, 94% in 1986–1993, 1994–1996, 1997–2002, respectively, and 94.1% at 96 months in 2003–2010. In the multivariate model the following variables were predictive of death: hepatitis C virus coinfection (hazard ratio = 2.7; confidence interval 2.0–3.6); Hepatitis B virus coinfection (hazard ratio = 2.4; confidence interval 1.7–3.6); being ≥50 years old (hazard ratio = 2.3; confidence interval 1.3–3.8); having 8–11 years of schooling (hazard ratio = 1.6; confidence interval 1.1–2.3), having 4–7 years of schooling (hazard ratio = 1.9; confidence interval 1.3–2.8) and having up to 3 years of schooling (hazard ratio = 3.3; confidence interval 2.0–5.5). Conclusions: Among patients diagnosed after 1996, there was a significant increase in the cumulative probability of survival in human immunodeficiency virus–hepatitis C virus coinfected individuals; among those diagnosed with acquired immune deficiency syndrome from 2003 to 2010, this probability was similar between coinfected and non-coinfected patients. Keywords: HIV, Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, Hepatitis viruses, Survival analysi

Clinical significance of transient left ventricular dilation assessed during myocardial Tc-99m sestamibi scintigraphy

OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical significance of transient ischemic dilation of the left ventricle during myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with stress/rest sestamibi. METHODS: The study retrospectively analyzed 378 patients who underwent myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with stress/rest sestamibi, 340 of whom had a low probability of having ischemia and 38 had significant transient defects. Transient ischemic dilation was automatically calculated using Autoquant software. Sensitivity, specificity, and the positive and negative predictive values were established for each value of transient ischemic dilation. RESULTS: The values of transient ischemic dilation for the groups of low probability and significant transient defects were, respectively, 1.01 ± 0.13 and 1.18 ± 0.17. The values of transient ischemic dilation for the group with significant transient defects were significantly greater than those obtained for the group with a low probability (P<0.001). The greatest positive predictive values, around 50%, were obtained for the values of transient ischemic dilation above 1.25. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that transient ischemic dilation assessed using the stress/rest sestamibi protocol may be useful to separate patients with extensive myocardial ischemia from those without ischemia