Analysis of Consumers' Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses

This paper examines the determinants of consumers' buying attitudes for houses. Data on buying attitudes are from responses to the Surveys of Consumer Attitudes conducted by the Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. The determinants considered include current and expected interest rates, current and expected real disposable income and house prices. The empirical estimates show that a long-run relationship exists between buying attitudes for houses and each of the above variables. Each of these determinants also Granger cause buying perceptions. Generalized impulse responses show that shocks to each of the above variables have a predictable and permanent impact on buying attitudes. Furthermore, generalized variance decompositions suggest that both current and expected interest rates explain a large proportion of the variation in consumers’ perceptions towards buying houses. Since consumers' attitudes towards buying houses are likely to be translated into actual purchases, this study shows that in order of importance, interest rates - both current and future - have the maximum impact on decisions to purchase houses followed by expectations of real disposable income.Consumer Surveys, House Buying Attitudes, Cointegration, Generalized Variance Decompositions, Impulse Responses.

Semiflexible polymers in a random environment

We present using simple scaling arguments and one step replica symmetry breaking a theory for the localization of semiflexible polymers in a quenched random environment. In contrast to completely flexible polymers, localization of semiflexible polymers depends not only on the details of the disorder but also on the ease with which polymers can bend. The interplay of these two effects can lead to the delocalization of a localized polymer with an increase in either the disorder density or the stiffness. Our theory provides a general criterion for the delocalization of polymers with varying degrees of flexibility and allows us to propose a phase diagram for the highly folded (localized) states of semiflexible polymers as a function of the disorder strength and chain rigidity.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, Revtex

SYNCHRONIZATION OF RECESSIONS IN MAJOR DEVELOPED AND EMERGING ECONOMIES

This paper examines various measures of synchronization of recessions, including clustering of the onset of recession across economies, proportion of economies in expansion and the diffusion index of international coincident indexes, and shows that the recent global recession was possibly the most concerted in the post world war period. Factors that contributed to the synchronization and severity of the recession, such as trade and financial linkages and timing of policy actions, are analysed.

Parallel versus off-pathway Michaelis-Menten mechanism for single-enzyme kinetics of a fluctuating enzyme

Recent fluorescence spectroscopy measurements of the turnover time distribution of single-enzyme turnover kinetics of $\beta$-galactosidase provide evidence of Michaelis-Menten kinetics at low substrate concentration. However, at high substrate concentrations, the dimensionless variance of the turnover time distribution shows systematic deviations from the Michaelis-Menten prediction. This difference is attributed to conformational fluctuations in both the enzyme and the enzyme-substrate complex and to the possibility of both parallel and off-pathway kinetics. Here, we use the chemical master equation to model the kinetics of a single fluctuating enzyme that can yield a product through either parallel or off-pathway mechanisms. An exact expression is obtained for the turnover time distribution from which the mean turnover time and randomness parameters are calculated. The parallel and off-pathway mechanisms yield strikingly different dependences of the mean turnover time and the randomness parameter on the substrate concentration. In the parallel mechanism, the distinct contributions of enzyme and enzyme-substrate fluctuations are clearly discerned from the variation of the randomness parameter with substrate concentration. From these general results we conclude that an off-pathway mechanism, with substantial enzyme-substrate fluctuations, is needed to rationalize the experimental findings of single-enzyme turnover kinetics of $\beta$-galactosidase.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figure

Modelling and Forecasting the Indian Re/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper develops vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models to forecast the Indian Re/US dollar exchange rate which is governed by a managed floating exchange rate regime. It considers extensions of the monetary model that include the forward premium, capital inflows, volatility of capital flows, order flows and central bank intervention. The study finds that the monetary model generally outperforms the naïve model. It also finds that forecast accuracy can be improved by extending the monetary model to include forward premium, volatility of capital inflows and order flow. Information on intervention by the central bank also helps to improve forecasts at the longer end. The study also reports that the Bayesian vector autoregressive models generally outperform their corresponding VAR variants.exchange rate; monetary model; VAR and Bayesian VAR models

Determinants of Weekly Yields on Government Securities in India

This paper examines the determinants of the Government yields in India using weekly data from April 2001 through March 2009. The analysis covers Treasury Bills with residual maturity of 15-91 days and Government securities of residual maturity one, five and ten years respectively. The empirical estimates show that a long-run relationship exists between each of these interest rates and the policy rate, rate of growth of money supply, inflation, interest rate spread, foreign interest rate and forward premium. At the same time, the empirical results also show that the relative importance of the determinants varies across the maturity spectrum. The normalized generalized variance decompositions suggest that the policy rate and the rate of growth of high powered money are less important in explaining the proportion of variation in longer term interest rates. The weight of the forward premium also diminishes as we move towards higher maturity interest rates. The inflation rate is also relatively less important in explaining variations in the 10-year rate. The yield spread, on the other hand, is more important in explaining the longer term rates. The results also show that a large proportion of the variation in the rates on the 5-year and 10-year government securities is attributed to the interest rate itself suggesting that the unexplained variation may be a result of cyclical factors that are relatively more important for longer term rates but are not captured by the yield spread and are omitted from the estimations due to the high frequency of data employed.interest rate determination; government yields; cointegration and generalized variance decompositions

CAPITAL FLOW VOLATILITY AND EXCHANGE RATES-- THE CASE OF INDIA

This paper examines the relationship between the real exchange rate, level of capital flows, volatility of the flows, fiscal and monetary policy indicators and the current account surplus for the Indian economy for the period 1993Q2 to 2004Q1. The estimations indicate that the variables are cointegrated and each granger causes the real exchange rate. The generalized variance decompositions show that determinants of the real exchange rate, in descending order of importance include net capital inflows and their volatility (jointly), government expenditure, current account surplus and the money supply. A preliminary analysis suggests that a similar analysis can be performed for the foreign exchange reserves held by the RBI.real exchange rate, capital flows, foreign exchange reserves, cointegration,