On the Exposure of the BRIC Countries to Global Economic Shocks

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources

zeek-osquery: Host-Network Correlation for Advanced Monitoring and Intrusion Detection

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) can analyze network traffic for signs of attacks and intrusions. However, encrypted communication limits their visibility and sophisticated attackers additionally try to evade their detection. To overcome these limitations, we extend the scope of Network IDSs (NIDSs) with additional data from the hosts. For that, we propose the integrated open-source zeek-osquery platform that combines the Zeek IDS with the osquery host monitor. Our platform can collect, process, and correlate host and network data at large scale, e.g., to attribute network flows to processes and users. The platform can be flexibly extended with own detection scripts using already correlated, but also additional and dynamically retrieved host data. A distributed deployment enables it to scale with an arbitrary number of osquery hosts. Our evaluation results indicate that a single Zeek instance can manage more than 870 osquery hosts and can attribute more than 96% of TCP connections to host-side applications and users in real-time.Comment: Accepted for publication at ICT Systems Security and Privacy Protection (IFIP) SEC 202

Successful reduction of intraventricular asynchrony is associated with superior response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is generally associated with a low to moderate increase of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). In some patients, however, LVEF improves remarkably and reaches near-normal values. The aim of the present study was to further characterize these so called 'super-responders' with a special focus on the extent of intra- and interventricular asynchrony before and after device implantation compared to average responders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>37 consecutive patients who underwent CRT device implantation according to current guidelines were included in the study. Patients were examined by echocardiography before, one day after and six months after device implantation. Pre-defined criterion for superior response to CRT was an LVEF increase > 15% after six months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At follow-up, eight patients (21.6%) were identified as super-responders. There were no significant differences regarding age, gender, prevalence of ischemic heart disease and LVEF between average and super-responders at baseline. After six months, LVEF had significantly increased from 26.7% ± 5.7% to 33.1% ± 7.9% (<it>p </it>< 0.001) in average and from 24.0% ± 6.7% to 50.3% ± 7.4% (<it>p </it>< 0.001) in super-responders. Both groups showed a significant reduction of QRS duration as well as LV end-diastolic and -systolic volumes under CRT. At baseline, the interventricular mechanical delay (IVMD) was 53.7 ± 20.9 ms in average and 56.9 ± 22.4 ms in super-responders - representing a similar extent of interventricular asynchrony in both groups (<it>p </it>= 0.713). CRT significantly reduced the IVMD to 20.3 ± 15.7 (<it>p </it>< 0.001) in average and to 19.8 ± 15.9 ms (<it>p </it>= 0.013) in super-responders with no difference between both groups (<it>p </it>= 0.858). As a marker for intraventricular asynchrony, we assessed the longest intraventricular delay between six basal LV segments. At baseline, there was no difference between average (86.2 ± 30.5 ms) and super-responders (78.8 ± 23.6 ms, <it>p </it>= 0.528). CRT significantly reduced the longest intraventricular delay in both groups - with a significant difference between average (66.2 ± 36.2 ms) and super-responders (32.5 ± 18.3 ms, <it>p </it>= 0.022). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the longest intraventricular delay one day after device implantation as an independent predictor of superior response to CRT (<it>p </it>= 0.038).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A significant reduction of the longest intraventricular delay correlates with superior response to CRT.</p

The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions

The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on exports of natural resources, the oil price decline starting in Summer 2014 could be another factor behind the deterioration. By using high frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on the driving forces of the Ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved

The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth : common and idiosyncratic effects

We investigate the long run relationship between private consump- tion, disposable income and wealth approximated by equity and house price indices for a panel of 15 industrialized countries. Consumption, income and wealth are cointegrated in their common components. The impact of house prices exceeds the effect arising from equity wealth. The long run vector is broadly in line with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis, if house prices are allowed to enter the relationship. At the idiosyncratic level, a long run equilibrium is detected between consumption and income, i.e. the wealth variable can be excluded. The income elasticity in the idiosyncratic relationship is significantly less than unity. Hence, the presence of wealth effects in consumption equations arises from the international integration of asset markets and points to the relevance of risk sharing activities of agents. Without sufficient opportunities, an increase in national saving rates would be expected, leading to a lower path of private consumption expenditures.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Geotechnical Field Reconnaissance: Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake of April 25, 2015 and Related Shaking Sequence

The April 25, 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake and its related aftershocks had a devastating impact on Nepal. The earthquake sequence resulted in nearly 9,000 deaths, tens of thousands of injuries, and has left hundreds of thousands of inhabitants homeless. With economic losses estimated at several billion US dollars, the financial impact to Nepal is severe and the rebuilding phase will likely span many years. The Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) Association assembled a reconnaissance team under the leadership of D. Scott Kieffer, Binod Tiwari and Youssef M.A. Hashash to evaluate geotechnical impacts of the April 25, 2015 Gorkha Earthquake and its related aftershocks. The focus of the reconnaissance was on time-sensitive (perishable) data, and the GEER team included a large group of experts in the areas of Geology, Engineering Geology, Seismology, Tectonics, Geotechnical Engineering, Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, and Civil and Environmental Engineering. The GEER team worked in close collaboration with local and international organizations to document earthquake damage and identify targets for detailed follow up investigations. The overall distribution of damage relative to the April 25, 2015 epicenter indicates significant ground motion directivity, with pronounced damage to the east and comparatively little damage to the west. In the Kathmandu Basin, characteristics of recorded strong ground motion data suggest that a combination of directivity and deep basin effects resulted in significant amplification at a period of approximately five seconds. Along the margins of Kathmandu Basin structural damage and ground failures are more pronounced than in the basin interior, indicating possible basin edge motion amplification. Although modern buildings constructed within the basin generally performed well, local occurrences of heavy damage and collapse of reinforced concrete structures were observed. Ground failures in the basin included cyclic failure of silty clay, lateral spreading and liquefaction. Significant landsliding was triggered over a broad area, with concentrated activity east of the April 25, 2015 epicenter and between Kathmandu and the Nepal-China border. The distribution of concentrated landsliding partially reflects directivity in the ground motion. Several landslides have dammed rivers and many of these features have already been breached. Hydropower is a primary source of electric power in Nepal, and several facilities were damaged due to earthquake-induced landsliding. Powerhouses and penstocks experienced significant damage, and an intake structure currently under construction experienced significant dynamic settlement during the earthquake. Damage to roadways, bridges and retaining structures was also primarily related to landsliding. The greater concentration of infrastructure damage along steep hillsides, ridges and mountain peaks offers a proxy for the occurrence of topographic amplification. The lack of available strong motion records has severely limited the GEER team’s ability to understand how strong motions were distributed and how they correlate to distributions of landsliding, ground failure and infrastructure damage. It is imperative that the engineering and scientific community continues to install strong motion stations so that such data is available for future earthquake events. Such information will benefit the people of Nepal through improved approaches to earthquake resilient design

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in Europe 2014: More than 40 000 transplants annually

A record number of 40 829 hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in 36 469 patients (15 765 allogeneic (43%), 20 704 autologous (57%)) were reported by 656 centers in 47 countries to the 2014 survey. Trends include: continued growth in transplant activity, more so in Eastern European countries than in the west; a continued increase in the use of haploidentical family donors (by 25%) and slower growth for unrelated donor HSCT. The use of cord blood as a stem cell source has decreased again in 2014. Main indications for HSCT were leukemias: 11 853 (33%; 96% allogeneic); lymphoid neoplasias; 20 802 (57%; 11% allogeneic); solid tumors; 1458 (4%; 3% allogeneic) and non-malignant disorders; 2203 (6%; 88% allogeneic). Changes in transplant activity include more allogeneic HSCT for AML in CR1, myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) and aplastic anemia and decreasing use in CLL; and more autologous HSCT for plasma cell disorders and in particular for amyloidosis. In addition, data on numbers of teams doing alternative donor transplants, allogeneic after autologous HSCT, autologous cord blood transplants are presented