Forum 1: Social Inequality, Justice, and Vaccine Intent and Distribution in the United States

The key issues for the distribution of the COVID vaccine are shared. These issues include funding, racial and ethnic disparities, supply and logistics, communication and trust, federal, state and local roles, and coverage and costs

Quantifying the Effect of Socio-Economic Predictors and Built Environment on Mental Health Events in Little Rock, AR

Proper allocation of law enforcement resources remains a critical issue in crime prediction and prevention that operates by characterizing spatially aggregated crime activities and a multitude of predictor variables of interest. Despite the critical nature of proper resource allocation for mental health incidents, there has been little progress in statistical modeling of the geo-spatial nature of mental health events in Little Rock, Arkansas. In this article, we provide insights into the spatial nature of mental health data from Little Rock, Arkansas between 2015 and 2018, under a supervised spatial modeling framework while extending the popular risk terrain modeling (Caplan et al., 2011, 2015; Drawve, 2016) approach. We provide evidence of spatial clustering and identify the important features influencing such heterogeneity via a spatially informed hierarchy of generalized linear models, spatial regression models and a tree based method, viz., Poisson regression, spatial Durbin error model, Manski model and Random Forest. The insights obtained from these different models are presented here along with their relative predictive performances. The inferential tools developed here can be used in a broad variety of spatial modeling contexts and have the potential to aid both law enforcement agencies and the city in properly allocating resources

GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF REPEAT & NEAR REPEAT RESIDENTIAL BURGLARIES

This analysis explores the formation of stable hot spots and the overall shifts of repeat and near repeat residential burglary over time. Data were obtained from a small college town police department. There were 1,513 repeat residential burglaries between January 2003 and December 2009 that occurred at a total of 356 addresses. Based upon past research it is thought that repeat residential burglaries will cluster in time and space creating stable hot spots and that the centrographic measures of the burglaries will remain relatively constant from year to year. The results found support for the formation of stable hot spots but found that the area in which the repeat residential burglaries were occurring increased over time

The Situated Contexts of American Terrorism: A Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations

This study examines how combinations of situational factors are associated with patterns of terrorist success and failure. We apply Sacco and Kennedy’s criminal event perspective and Clarke and Newman’s situational crime prevention approach to the study of terrorist opportunity structures. Using data from the American Terrorism Study (ATS), we employ conjunctive analysis to investigate how opportunities for terrorist attacks and prevention are situationally positioned. We ask, “What combinations of terrorists’ ideological and situational factors are associated with terrorist outcomes in the United States?” While our findings generally show that the simplest forms of terrorism, including combinations of lone actors using unsophisticated weapons against nonhuman targets after little preparation, are associated with successful outcomes, there is heterogeneity in situated opportunities for preparing for and committing terrorism across terrorism movements. Our findings add insights into terrorism prevention strategies and help build a foundation for future comparative research on terrorism outcomes

Enhancing Data-driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring How Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework

Law enforcement’s examination of vehicle crashes is often nested in the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) framework which highlights the importance of hot spot analysis. To assist law enforcement efforts, this study explores how two additional spatial techniques, namely risk terrain modeling (RTM) and conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), could be incorporated within the DDACTS framework. RTM was utilized to identify how the built, physical environment contributed to the risk of traffic incidents. RTM identified 6 risk factors related to the occurrence of vehicle crashes, and high-risk places were compared to hot spots on predictive accuracy. CACC was used to explore configurations likely to result in traffic incidents for the priority places. Our findings support the Theory of Risky Places and fit within a vulnerability-exposure framework, providing law enforcement with guidance for identifying places where vehicle crashes are likely to occur in the future. In addition to providing insight for law enforcement, we discuss how law enforcement can develop working partnerships with stakeholders capable of preventing and/or reducing traffic incidents, which is in line with the general DDACTS framework

Close only counts in alcohol and violence: Controlling violence near late-night alcohol establishments using a routine activities approach

Purpose Assess whether 5 a.m. bars and nightclubs in Little Rock, AR were in fact serving to attract or generate violence in and around their premises and what impacts a new ordinance, requiring increased guardianship, served its intended purpose to reduce the incidence of violence. Methods Using violent crime data from the Little Rock Police, a series of Risk Terrain Models were utilized to examine whether the influence that proximity to a risk factor (5 a.m. alcohol establishments) has on violent crime changes after the new ordinance is established. Results Support for the ordinance was found for yearlong risk assessment, in that requiring 5 am alcohol establishments in Little Rock to employ a minimum of two law enforcement officers in and around the establishment acted as effective strategies to alter the guardianship and reduced the relative risk of violent crime in close proximity to these establishments. Conclusion The establishments were serving to attract/generate violent crime in and around their vicinity; however, support was found for the effectiveness risk reduction through increasing levels of guardianship and thus, reducing relative risk for violent crime. Furthermore, depending on the temporal aggregation, results varied on the potential riskiness associated with the 5 a.m. alcohol establishments

Suspicious preoperational activities and law enforcement interdiction of terrorist plots

The purpose of this paper is to provide a metric for validating the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative’s (NSI) sixteen-category instrument, which is designed to guide law enforcement in the collection and analysis of suspicious behaviors preceding serious crimes, including terrorist attacks. Data on suspicious preoperational activities and terrorism incident outcomes in the USA between 1972 and 2013 come from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). Using a mixed-method approach, the authors conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine the frequencies of the least and most prevalent suspicious activities (or SAR indicators) and how they predict the likelihood of terrorism prevention. In addition, the authors contextualize how configurations of SAR indicators are associated with the successful thwarting of terrorism incidents by law enforcement using an analytical method known as conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC)