Who defaults on their home mortgage?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Pairing the NYSBD's data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) enables us to identify the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages (in New York State). Like many previous studies, we find strong racial and ethnic disparities in lending practices, but we do not find conclusive evidence that HMDA-measurable forms of discrimination increased a borrower's probability of default. After controlling for other factors, we find that the interest rates charged to black and Latino borrowers tended to be higher than the ones charged to their white and non-Latino counterparts. This may be one reason why blacks and Latinos tend to default at a higher rate, but other factors, such as the tendency of black and Latino borrowers to take out larger loans than their white and non-Latino counterparts, may also have contributed to the higher default rate among black and Latino borrowers.mortgage; default; foreclosure; discrimination

Fresnel zone considerations for reflection and scatter from refractive index irregularities

Several different echoing mechanisms are proposed to explain VHF/UHF scatter from clear air; (1) anisotropic scatter; (2) Fresnel reflection, and (3) Fresnel scatter, in order to account for the spatial (angle and range) and temporal dependence of the echoes. The term diffuse reflection describes the echoing mechanism when both scatter and reflection coexist. A unifying formulation is presented incorporating a statistical approach that embraces all mechanisms the above mechanisms and gives conditions under which reflection or scatter dominates. A distinction between Fraunhofer and Fresnel scatter and a criterion is presented under which Fresnel scatter is important

An evaluation of the accuracy of some radar wind profiling techniques

Major advances in Doppler radar measurement in optically clear air have made it feasible to monitor radial velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. For most applications the three dimensional wind vector is monitored rather than the radial velocity. Measurement of the wind vector with a single radar can be made assuming a spatially linear, time invariant wind field. The components and derivatives of the wind are estimated by the parameters of a linear regression of the radial velocities on functions of their spatial locations. The accuracy of the wind measurement thus depends on the locations of the radial velocities. The suitability is evaluated of some of the common retrieval techniques for simultaneous measurement of both the vertical and horizontal wind components. The techniques considered for study are fixed beam, azimuthal scanning (VAD) and elevation scanning (VED)

Long-term radiation effects on GaAs solar cell characteristics

This report investigates preliminary design considerations which should be considered for a space experiment involving Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) solar cells. The electron radiation effects on GaAs solar cells were conducted in a laboratory environment, and a statistical analysis of the data is presented. In order to augment the limited laboratory data, a theoretical investigation of the effect of radiation on GaAs solar cells is also developed. The results of this study are empirical prediction equations which can be used to estimate the actual damage of electrical characteristics in a space environment. The experimental and theoretical studies also indicate how GaAs solar cell parameters should be designed in order to withstand the effects of electron radiation damage

Essays on Economic Policy: Income Inequality and Health Insurance

This dissertation contains economic analyses of two critical social issues facing the United States at the dawn of the 21st century: income inequality and the affordability of health insurance. The chapter on income inequality uses the Solow Model of economic growth to model the evolution of inequality over time. In steady state, differences in household saving rates generate differences in household capital income. Households that save more accumulate more capital and have higher steady-state income. Tax policy affects the distribution of income through its influence on household saving rates. Increasing the tax rate on labor income causes a greater percentage decrease in the steady-state saving rates of relatively low savers, thus increasing pre-tax income inequality. Conversely, increasing the tax rate on capital income reduces pre-tax income inequality because it causes a greater percentage decrease in the steady-state saving rates of relatively high savers. Empirical tests of the model using data from the March Current Population Survey and NBER\u27s TAXSIM model suggest that higher taxes on wage income are associated with higher levels of income inequality. A high degree of correlation among the average marginal tax rates prevents us from drawing inferences about the effect that taxation of capital income has on inequality. The chapter on health insurance examines states\u27 efforts to make health insurance more accessible and affordable to small employers by restricting insurers\u27 ability to set premium rates on the basis of health status and other factors which predict a group\u27s future medical needs. The chapter presents evidence that rating restrictions reduce health insurance coverage rates and increase market concentration in the insurance industry. From the perspective of a public policymaker however, such reforms may still be desirable if they increase the ability of less healthy individuals to obtain and afford health insurance coverage

Forecasting the New York State Economy with “Terraced” VARs and Coincident Indices

This paper introduces “Terraced” Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling, which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts. In an application of our Terraced VAR framework, we have estimated coincident indices of economic activity for the United States, New York State and the six largest metropolitan areas of New York State and incorporated them into Terraced VARs, which forecast the unemployment rate, total non-farm employment, real wages and average hours worked in manufacturing in those regions

The effect of phase-correlated returns and spatial smoothing on the accuracy of radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals have the potential to accurately capture near-surface humidity fields from the phase change of ground clutter returns. In practice, phase changes are very noisy and the required smoothing will diminish large radial phase change gradients, leading to severe underestimates of large refractivity changes (ΔN). To mitigate this, the mean refractivity change over the field (ΔNfield) must be subtracted prior to smoothing. However, both observations and simulations indicate that highly correlated returns (e.g., when single targets straddle neighboring gates) result in underestimates of ΔNfield when pulse-pair processing is used. This may contribute to reported differences of up to 30 N units between surface observations and retrievals. This effect can be avoided if ΔNfield is estimated using a linear least squares fit to azimuthally averaged phase changes. Nevertheless, subsequent smoothing of the phase changes will still tend to diminish the all-important spatial perturbations in retrieved refractivity relative to ΔNfield; an iterative estimation approach may be required. The uncertainty in the target location within the range gate leads to additional phase noise proportional to ΔN, pulse length, and radar frequency. The use of short pulse lengths is recommended, not only to reduce this noise but to increase both the maximum detectable refractivity change and the number of suitable targets. Retrievals of refractivity fields must allow for large ΔN relative to an earlier reference field. This should be achievable for short pulses at S band, but phase noise due to target motion may prevent this at C band, while at X band even the retrieval of ΔN over shorter periods may at times be impossible

Who defaults on their home mortgage?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Pairing the NYSBD's data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) enables us to identify the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages (in New York State). Like many previous studies, we find strong racial and ethnic disparities in lending practices, but we do not find conclusive evidence that HMDA-measurable forms of discrimination increased a borrower's probability of default. After controlling for other factors, we find that the interest rates charged to black and Latino borrowers tended to be higher than the ones charged to their white and non-Latino counterparts. This may be one reason why blacks and Latinos tend to default at a higher rate, but other factors, such as the tendency of black and Latino borrowers to take out larger loans than their white and non-Latino counterparts, may also have contributed to the higher default rate among black and Latino borrowers

Who enters the foreclosure process?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Our analysis of the NYSBD data suggests that borrowers in default who took larger loans are more likely to progress to a foreclosure filing. It also suggests that reducing principal balances may reduce the foreclosure rate, but might have an adverse effect on the mortgage industry. Given the frequent criticism of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), it is no surprise that defaulted borrowers whose mortgages were modified via HAMP progress to a lis pendens filing a higher rate than defaulted borrowers without a modification or with a non-HAMP modification. After controlling for delinquency length (and other factors) however, we find that the HAMP program may have been effective in helping defaulted borrowers avoid foreclosure

Investigating EM Dipole Radiating Element for Dual Polarized Phased Array Weather Radars

Dual‐polarized antenna radiating element is a critical component in the Multi‐function Phased Array Radar (MPAR). This paper studies the dual‐polarized radiating element based on the EM dipole concept. Two different geometries, i.e., loop approximated as magnetic dipole and a printed electric dipole, are used to form a single dual‐polarized radiating element. Radiation patterns based on Ansoft HFSS (High Frequency Structural Simulator) simulation software and measurements carried out in anechoic chambers are presented. Initial array design based on these elements will also be discussed