FABLE Calculator 2020 update

The FABLE Calculator (“the Calculator”) is an Excel accounting tool used to study the potential evolution of food and land-use systems over the period 2000-2050. It focuses on agriculture as the main driver of land-use change and tests the impact of different policies and changes in the drivers of these systems through the combination of a large number of scenarios. It includes 76 raw and processed agricultural products from the crop and livestock sectors (Appendix 1) and relies extensively on the FAOSTAT (2020) database for input data. For every 5-year time step over the period 2000-2050, the Calculator computes the level of agricultural activity, land use change, food consumption, trade, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water use, and biodiversity conservation according to selected scenarios. Users can replace data from global databases with national or subnational data

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020-2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.Fil: Mosnier, Aline. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Javalera Rincon, Valeria. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg; AustriaFil: Jones, Sarah K. Alliance of Bioversity International; FranciaFil: Andrew, Robbie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: Bai, Zhaohai. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Baker, Justin. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Basnet, Shyam. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Boer, Rizaldi. Bogor Agricultural University; IndonesiaFil: Chavarro, John. Geo-agro-environmental Sciences And Resources Research Center; ColombiaFil: Costa, Wanderson. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Daloz, Anne Sophie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: DeClerck, Fabrice A.. Alliance of Bioversity International; Francia. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Diaz, Maria. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Douzal, Clara. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah. Sunway University; MalasiaFil: Fetzer, Ingo. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Frank, Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gonzalez Abraham, Charlotte E.. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Habiburrachman, A. H. F.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Immanuel, Gito. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Harrison, Paula A.. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Imanirareba, Dative. Uganda Martyrs University; UgandaFil: Jha, Chandan. Indian Institute Of Management Ahmedabad; IndiaFil: Monjeau, Jorge Adrian. Fundación Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Vittis, Yiorgos. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Wade, Chris. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Winarni, Nurul L.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Woldeyes, Firew Bekele. Ethiopian Development Research Institute; EtiopíaFil: Wu, Grace C.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zerriffi, Hisham. University of British Columbia; Canad

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities

How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed

Scenathon 2021

Results of the Scenathon 2021

Aux sources de la déconnexion occidentale homme-nature, à la recherche d'une voie de changement

International audienceI take the reader along for a long and hard-fought journey down the levels of today's society Inferno, leading to a radical interpretation of the contemporary integral crisis through the dual lens of sciences and humanities. As the concepts are built onto one another in the process, be warned that there is no royal road to the passage to transformation that is aimed at, where this historical rewind sheds light on a possible change

Coviabilité des systèmes sociaux et écologiques : introduction générale

International audienc

Un entrelacement à formaliser, la biosphère et la relation entre humain et non-humain

International audienceThis introductory chapter delineates the challenge of formalizing a concept-paradigm and provides specific examples that could be considered as models of socio-ecological viability. We investigate the benefits that the concept of coviability brings to the concept of "sustainable development". Contributions will be given throughout the book and will be summarized in a final chapter, which will define the concept-paradigm through a transdisciplinary approach

Approche mathématique de la coviabilité : concept, modélisation et commande

International audienceThe concepts for a mathematical approach to coviability, deriving from Aubin's viability theory, as a generalisation of control theory, are introduced and examplified

La coviabilité comme paradigme scientifique pour une transition écologique, vue d'ensemble et définition

International audienceBefore closing the book, it is necessary to clarify the main point, rather than offer an inaccessible summary. At this stage, it is important to identify the significance of this scientific paradigm of coviability, especially in an international context confronted with an ecological imperative. The book seeks to draw from the set of works an initial definition of the paradigm of coviability. This goal's point of departure is the plural definitions and disciplines, the heterogeneous works giving space for reflection. This new paradigm of socio-ecological coviability offers an ecological transition promoted at the global, national and local scales. An integrative paradigm is suggested to counter the dominant naturalistic paradigm. The goal of this paradigm is "living in harmony with nature," that is, creating harmony between humans and nonhumans. The challenge consists of breaking free from a reductive anthropocentrism in order to integrate an ontology open to a socio-ecological dimension, with the goal of reconnecting humanity to the biosphere. The diversity of the situations approached by the different research teams makes it possible to test a definition of socio-ecological coviability that may be: a property of interactive dependence between humans and nonhumans joined in a relationship that is contained by regulations and constraints. This relationship establishes a link of viability subjected to an integration threshold of the complex human/nonhuman system determining the limits of coviability's elasticity, whose realization remains the coevolution in an integrated socio-ecological system