Alcohol availability, consumption and the incidence of alcohol-related social and health problems in Michigan. Final report

Notes: Report covers the period Oct 1977 - Sept 1978Michigan Department of Public Health, Office of Substance Abuse Services, Lansinghttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/570/2/42423.0001.001.pd

A Model Study of the Impact of Source Gas Changes on the Stratosphere for 1850-2100

The long term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850-2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the God- 40 dard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1970-2100 to illustrate that the 2D model captures the basic processes responsible for longterm stratospheric change. The 2D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the 45 ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that ozone reaches a broad maximum during the 1920s-1930s. This preceeds the significant ozone depletion during approx. 1960-2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the IPCC AIB (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and age of air during 1850-2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the age of air to decrease by approx. 1 year from 1860-2100. The corresponding photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11-13% during 1960-2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes 4%) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates

Epidemiology and fitness effects of wood mouse herpesvirus in a natural host population

Rodent gammaherpesviruses have become important models for understanding human herpesvirus diseases. In particular, interactions between murid herpesvirus 4 and Mus musculus (a non-natural host species) have been extensively studied under controlled laboratory conditions. However, several fundamental aspects of murine gammaherpesvirus biology are not well understood, including how these viruses are transmitted from host to host, and their impacts on host fitness under natural conditions. Here, we investigate the epidemiology of a gammaherpesvirus in free-living wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in a 2-year longitudinal study. Wood mouse herpesvirus (WMHV) was the only herpesvirus detected and occurred frequently in wood mice and also less commonly in bank voles. Strikingly, WMHV infection probability was highest in reproductively active, heavy male mice. Infection risk also showed a repeatable seasonal pattern, peaking in spring and declining through the summer. We show that this seasonal decline can be at least partly attributed to reduced recapture of WMHV-infected adults. These results suggest that male reproductive behaviours could provide an important natural route of transmission for these viruses. They also suggest that gammaherpesvirus infection may have significant detrimental effects in wild hosts, questioning the view that these viruses have limited impacts in natural, co-evolved host species

The Chemical and Dynamical Responses of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo

Observations have shown that the concentration of nitrogen dioxide decreased in both hemispheres in the years following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. In contrast, the observed ozone response was largely asymmetrical with respect to the equator, with a decrease in the northern hemisphere and little or no change in the southern hemisphere. Simulations including enhanced heterogeneous chemistry due to the presence of the volcanic aerosol reproduce a decrease of ozone in the northern hemisphere, but also produce a comparable ozone decrease in the southern hemisphere contrary to observations. Our simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and the extratropical downwelling. The enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the seasonal phase of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, increased the ozone in the southern hemisphere and counteracted the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic aerosol

Relation between Stochastic Resonance and Synchronization of Passages in a Double-Well System

We calculate, numerically, the residence times (and their distribution) of a Brownian particle in a two-well system under the action of a periodic, saw-tooth type, external field. We define hysteresis in the system. The hysteresis loop area is shown to be a good measure of synchronization of passages from one well to the other. We establish connection between this stochastic synchronization and stochastic resonance in the system.Comment: To appear in PRE May 1997, figures available on reques

Chandra Observation of the Cluster Environment of a WAT Radio Source in Abell 1446

Wide-angle tail (WAT) radio sources are often found in the centers of galaxy clusters where intracluster medium (ICM) ram pressure may bend the lobes into their characteristic C-shape. We examine the low redshift (z=0.1035) cluster Abell 1446, host to the WAT radio source 1159+583. The cluster exhibits possible evidence for a small-scale cluster-subcluster merger as a cause of the WAT radio source morphology. This evidence includes the presence of temperature and pressure substructure along the line that bisects the WAT as well as a possible wake of stripped interstellar material or a disrupted cool core to the southeast of the host galaxy. A filament to the north may represent cool, infalling gas that's contributing to the WAT bending while spectroscopically determined redshifts of member galaxies may indicate some component of a merger occurring along the line-of-sight. The WAT model of high flow velocity and low lobe density is examined as another scenario for the bending of 1159+583. It has been argued that such a model would allow the ram pressure due to the galaxy's slow motion through the ICM to shape the WAT source. A temperature profile shows that the cluster is isothermal (kT= 4.0 keV) in a series of annuli reaching a radius of 400 kpc. There is no evidence of an ongoing cooling flow. Temperature, abundance, pressure, density, and mass profiles, as well as two-dimensional maps of temperature and pressure are presented.Comment: 40 AASTeX pages including 15 postscript figures; accepted for publication in Ap

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty