Essays on the economics of environmental policies : preferences, beliefs, and redistribution

Les quatre chapitres de cette thèse visent à mieux comprendre l'attitude des citoyens vis-à-vis des politiques environnementales. Le premier chapitre évalue l’impact redistributif de la taxe carbone française. Il montre que la taxe carbone est régressive, mais pourrait être rendue progressive si son revenu était retourné de manière uniforme à tous les ménages. Toutefois, la politique générerait d’importants effets redistributifs horizontaux et pénaliserait une part importante des ménages modestes. A partir d’une nouvelle enquête sur un échantillon représentatif, le deuxième chapitre co-écrit avec Adrien Fabre montre que les Français sont opposés à la taxe carbone même si le revenu leur est reversé uniformément. Ce rejet va de pair avec des perceptions pessimistes fortement ancrées des effets de la politique, que l’on peut expliquer par la défiance des répondants. Notre analyse montre toutefois que lorsque les ménages sont convaincus des effets objectifs de la politique - sur leur pouvoir d'achat, sur l'environnement, et en termes redistributifs - leur soutien augmente très largement. Le troisième chapitre, basé sur la même enquête, est plus descriptif. Il a pour objectif d’évaluer l’attitude des Français vis-à-vis du changement climatique, et les perspectives de la politique climatique française après la crise des Gilets Jaunes. Le quatrième chapitre, plus théorique, étudie à partir d’un modèle comment les catastrophes environnementales jouent sur les décisions de consommation, d'investissement, et de protection de l'environnement en fonction de l'attitude des individus face au risque.The four chapters of this thesis aim to better understand citizens' attitudes towards environmental policies. The first chapter assesses the redistributive impact of the French carbon tax. It shows that the carbon tax is regressive, but could be made progressive if its revenue were returned uniformly to all households. However, the policy would generate significant horizontal redistributive effects and penalize a large share of modest households. Based on a new survey with a large representative sample, the second chapter co-authored with Adrien Fabre shows that the French are opposed to the carbon tax even if its revenue is returned to them uniformly. This rejection goes hand in hand with strongly rooted pessimistic perceptions of the effects of the policy, which can be explained by the respondents' mistrust. Our analysis shows, however, that when households are convinced of the objective effects of the policy - on their purchasing power, on the environment, and in redistributive terms - their support increases very significantly. The third chapter, based on the same survey, is more descriptive. It aims to assess French attitudes towards climate change and the prospects for French climate policy after the Yellow Vest crisis. The fourth chapter, more theoretical, uses a model to study how environmental disasters affect consumption, investment and environmental protection decisions according to people's attitude to risk

Les effets redistributifs de la fiscalité carbone en France

International audienceBien que plébiscitée par les économistes, la taxe carbone peine à se faire une place dans l’agenda des décideurs publics. Une des raisons de son lent développement est la crainte qu’elle puisse générer d’importants effets redistributifs, et en particulier pénaliser les ménages les plus modestes. Cette note présente les résultats d’une évaluation ex ante des effets redistributifs sur les ménages des réformes de la fiscalité environnementale en France en 2018. La taxe carbone est en elle-même régressive, mais génère des recettes supplémentaires. En transférant de manière neutre ce revenu à tous les ménages, on obtiendrait une réforme progressive. Toutefois, même dans cette situation la réforme génèrerait d’importants effets redistributifs au sein des groupes de revenu. Ces transferts horizontaux, plus difficiles à corriger, suggèrent que d’autres outils sont nécessaires pour réduire l’impact de la réforme sur les plus vulnérables. Dans une perspective de long terme, il apparaît comme essentiel d’investir dans l’amélioration des performances énergétiques des logements et des transports. Ces politiques répondent non seulement à des exigences environnementales, mais aussi au besoin de réduire la vulnérabilité des ménages les plus modestes à l’augmentation future des prix de l’énergie

The Vertical and Horizontal Distributive Effects of Energy Taxes: A Case Study of a French Policy

International audienceThis paper proposes a micro-simulation assessment of the distributional impacts of the French carbon tax. It shows that the policy is regressive, but could be made progressive by redistributing the revenue through flat-recycling. However, it would still generate large horizontal distributive effects and harm a significant share of low-income households. The determinants of the tax incidence are characterized precisely, and alternative targeted transfers are simulated on this basis. The paper shows that given the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in the determinants of energy consumption, horizontal distributive effects are much more difficult to tackle than vertical ones

The redistributive effects of carbon taxation in France

International audienceAlthough widely endorsed by economists, carbon tax is struggling to establish itself on the agendas of public decision-makers. One of the reasons for its slow development is the fear that it might generate major redistributive effects, and in particular discriminate against the lowest-income households. This policy brief presents the findings of an ex ante assessment of the redistributive effects on households of the environmental taxation reforms in France in 2018. Carbon tax is intrinsically regressive, but it generates additional revenue. By transferring this revenue neutrally to all households, a progressive reform would be obtained. However, even in such a situation, the reform would generate considerable redistributive effects within the income groups. Such horizontal transfers, which are more difficult to correct, suggest that other tools are necessary for reducing the impact of the reform on the most vulnerable. Looking to the long term, it appears essential to invest in improving the energy performance of housing and of transport. Such policies meet not only environmental requirements, but also the need to reduce the vulnerability of the lowest-income households to future energy price rises

Disaster risks, disaster strikes, and economic growth: The role of preferences

International audienceThis paper studies the role of preferences on the link between disasters, growth, and welfare. An endogenous growth model with endogenous disasters is presented in which one can derive closed-form solutions with recursive preferences. The model distinguishes disaster risks and disaster strikes and highlights the numerous mechanisms through which they may affect growth. It is shown that separating aversion to risk from the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution bears critical implications that enable to better understand these mechanisms. In a calibration of the model based on empirical evidence about disaster impacts in the U.S., it is shown that precautionary savings are unlikely to be sufficient to generate a positive link between disasters and growth as sometimes encountered in the empirical literature. The paper also assesses the impact of disasters on welfare and highlights the large benefits that could be obtained by enhancing insurance coverage

Essais sur l'économie des politiques environnementales : préférences, croyances, et redistribution

The four chapters of this thesis aim to better understand citizens' attitudes towards environmental policies. The first chapter assesses the redistributive impact of the French carbon tax. It shows that the carbon tax is regressive, but could be made progressive if its revenue were returned uniformly to all households. However, the policy would generate significant horizontal redistributive effects and penalize a large share of modest households. Based on a new survey with a large representative sample, the second chapter co-authored with Adrien Fabre shows that the French are opposed to the carbon tax even if its revenue is returned to them uniformly. This rejection goes hand in hand with strongly rooted pessimistic perceptions of the effects of the policy, which can be explained by the respondents' mistrust. Our analysis shows, however, that when households are convinced of the objective effects of the policy - on their purchasing power, on the environment, and in redistributive terms - their support increases very significantly. The third chapter, based on the same survey, is more descriptive. It aims to assess French attitudes towards climate change and the prospects for French climate policy after the Yellow Vest crisis. The fourth chapter, more theoretical, uses a model to study how environmental disasters affect consumption, investment and environmental protection decisions according to people's attitude to risk.Les quatre chapitres de cette thèse visent à mieux comprendre l'attitude des citoyens vis-à-vis des politiques environnementales. Le premier chapitre évalue l’impact redistributif de la taxe carbone française. Il montre que la taxe carbone est régressive, mais pourrait être rendue progressive si son revenu était retourné de manière uniforme à tous les ménages. Toutefois, la politique générerait d’importants effets redistributifs horizontaux et pénaliserait une part importante des ménages modestes. A partir d’une nouvelle enquête sur un échantillon représentatif, le deuxième chapitre co-écrit avec Adrien Fabre montre que les Français sont opposés à la taxe carbone même si le revenu leur est reversé uniformément. Ce rejet va de pair avec des perceptions pessimistes fortement ancrées des effets de la politique, que l’on peut expliquer par la défiance des répondants. Notre analyse montre toutefois que lorsque les ménages sont convaincus des effets objectifs de la politique - sur leur pouvoir d'achat, sur l'environnement, et en termes redistributifs - leur soutien augmente très largement. Le troisième chapitre, basé sur la même enquête, est plus descriptif. Il a pour objectif d’évaluer l’attitude des Français vis-à-vis du changement climatique, et les perspectives de la politique climatique française après la crise des Gilets Jaunes. Le quatrième chapitre, plus théorique, étudie à partir d’un modèle comment les catastrophes environnementales jouent sur les décisions de consommation, d'investissement, et de protection de l'environnement en fonction de l'attitude des individus face au risque

French attitudes on climate change, carbon taxation and other climate policies

International audienceThis paper aims to assess the prospects for French climate policies after the Yellow Vests crisis halted the planned increase in the carbon tax. From a large representative survey, we elicit knowledge, perceptions and values over climate change, we examine opinions relative to carbon taxation, and we assess support for other climate policies. Specific attention is given to the link between perceptions of climate change and attitudes towards policies. The paper also studies in detail the determinants of attitudes in terms of political and socio-demographic variables. Among many results, we find limited knowledge but high concern for climate change. We also document a large rejection of the carbon tax but majority support for stricter norms and green investments, and reveal the rationales behind these preferences. Our study entails policy recommendations, such as an information campaign on climate change. Indeed, we find that climate awareness increases support for climate policies but no evidence for the formation of opinions through partisan cues as in the US, suggesting that better access to science could foster support for climate policies

International Attitudes Toward Global Policies

We document majority support for policies entailing global redistribution and climate mitigation. Recent surveys on 40,680 respondents in 20 countries covering 72% of global carbon emissions show strong support for an effective and progressive way to combat climate change and poverty: a global carbon price funding a global basic income, called the "Global Climate Scheme" (GCS). Using complementary surveys on 8,000 respondents in the U.S., France, Germany, Spain, and the UK, we test several hypotheses that could reconcile strong stated support with a lack of salience in policy circles. A list experiment shows no evidence of social desirability bias, majorities are willing to sign a real-stake petition, and global redistribution ranks high in the prioritization of policies. Conjoint analyses reveal that a platform is more likely to be preferred if it contains the GCS or a global tax on millionaires. Universalistic attitudes are confirmed by an incentivized donation. In sum, our findings indicate that global policies are genuinely supported by a majority of the population. Public opinion is therefore not the reason that they do not prominently enter political debates

Yellow Vests, Carbon Tax Aversion, and Biased Beliefs

This paper helps to understand how beliefs form and determine attitudes towards policies. Using a new survey and official households’ survey data, we investigate the case of carbon taxation in France in the context of the Yellow Vests movement that started against it. We find that French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to each adult. However, they also overestimate the negative impact of the scheme on their purchasing power, wrongly think it is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. Using information about the scheme as instruments to robustly identify causal effects, our econometric analysis shows that if we could rectify these three biased beliefs, it would suffice to generate majority approval. Yet, only a small minority can be convinced by new information and revisions are biased towards pessimism. Finally, if overly pessimistic beliefs cause tax rejection, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as “tax aversion”

Yellow vests, pessimistic beliefs, and carbon tax aversion

International audienc