The international monetary system after the financial crisis

The main strength of today’s international monetary system – its flexibility and adaptability to the different needs of its users – can also become its weakness, as it may contribute to unsustainable growth models and imbalances. The global financial crisis has shown that the system cannot afford a benign neglect of the global public good of external stability, and that multilateral institutions and fora such as the IMF and the G20 need to take the initiative to set incentives for systemically important economies to address real and financial imbalances which impair stability. We draw this core conclusion from a systematic review of the literature on the current international monetary system, in particular its functioning and vulnerabilities prior to the global financial crisis. Drawing from this analysis, we assess the existing and potential avenues, driven partly by policy initiatives and partly by market forces, through which the system may be improved. JEL Classification: C21, C51, G15, G21, G28financial globalisation, global imbalances, international liquidity, international monetary system

The accumulation of foreign reserves

In a number of countries, especially emerging market economies, the public sector has in recent years been accumulating sizeable cross-border financial assets, mainly in the form of official foreign exchange reserves. World reserves have risen from USD 1.2 trillion in January 1995 to above USD 4 trillion in September 2005, growing particularly rapidly since 2002. This paper investigates the features, drivers, risks and costs of such recent reserve accumulation, as well as the other uses that certain countries have been making of their accumulated foreign assets. The main trends in central bank reserve management are also reviewed. Finally, the paper provides some evidence for the impact of reserve accumulation on yields and asset prices. JEL Classification:Foreign exchange reserves, exchange rates, emerging market economies.

Domestic Financial Development in Emerging Economies: Evidence and Implications.

We construct, on the basis of an original methodology and database, composite indices to measure domestic financial development in 26 emerging economies, using mature economies as a benchmark. Twenty-two variables are used and grouped according to three broad dimensions: (i) institutions and regulations; (ii) size of and access to financial markets and (iii) market performance. This new evidence aims to fill a gap in the economic literature, which has not thus far developed comparable time series including both emerging and mature economies. In doing so, we provide a quantitative measure of the – usually considerable – scope for the selected emerging countries and regions to “catch up” in financial terms. Moreover, we find evidence that a process of financial convergence towards mature economies has already started in certain emerging economies. Finally, we conduct an econometric analysis showing that different levels of domestic financial development tend to be associated with the building up of external imbalances across countries. JEL Classification: F3, F4, G1, G2, E21, E22, C82.Financial development, index construction, commodity and oil-exporting countries, G20, major emerging economies, financial catching up, global imbalances.

European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America

This paper tests for the hypothesis that institutional integration interacts with economic integration at the regional level. In particular, we ask what lessons can be drawn from the European experience with regional integration for Latin America. Several indicators of institutional and economic integration for both the EU and Latin America are presented. We find that Latin America is currently less economically integrated not only than the European Union today, but in some cases even than the EU at the beginning of its regional integration process. A cluster analysis illustrates that the link between institutional and economic integration has worked both ways throughout the whole EU experience. The more institutional integration went beyond the creation of a customs union and moved towards a common market and an economic and monetary union, the deeper economic integration turned out. Increasing economic integration in turn corroborated and sustained the process of institutional integration. JEL Classification: E42, F15, F33, F41intra-regional exchange rate variability, Regional integration in Europe and Latin America

China's economic growth and rebalancing

Incluye bibliografíaIn this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent byproduct, serious imbalances which cannot be unwound without a fundamental overhaul of the model itself. Second, given the lack of a critical mass of economic reforms thus far, imbalances may (re-)escalate once global and domestic economic conditions normalise. Third, the fundamental factors underpinning growth in China are likely to remain supportive, at least over the medium run. Although this could help mitigate the economic costs of imbalances for some time to come, it could also reduce the incentives for policymakers to enact much needed reforms. Fourth, delayed policy action and the persistence of the model of growth cum imbalances would increase the risk of China getting caught in the middle-income trap in the long run. Greater political will to redirect China’s growth model towards a more sustainable path is therefore neede

Demographic and socio-economic determinants of poor HIV-risk perception at first HIV diagnosis: analysis of the HIV Surveillance data, Italy 2010-2016

HIV infections in Italy has not undergone a substantial decline over recent years. For this reason, we analysed risk-factors and socio-economic indicators of HIV-risk perception in HIV surveillance data

combined antiretroviral therapy cart reduces aids related and non aids related mortality a temporal analysis from time of seroconversion sc

Objectives: To estimate changes of AIDS and non-AIDS mortalities from 1996 to 2010 comparing (2004-2010) vs. (1996-2003) periods from the time of HIV-seroconversion (SC). Methods: Data derived from an Italian multicentre prospective and open cohort; competing risks approach was applied estimating the cumulative incidence functions (CIF) for AIDS and non-AIDS deaths over time from SC with delayed entries in the two cART periods. Cox-cause-specific hazards models were applied to estimate relative hazards (RH) of AIDS and non-AIDS related deaths. Results: Of 2,249 individuals with known SC date followed from SC and from January 1996 to December 2010, 1,779 were survived, seroconverted or followed during 1996-2003, while 1,715 during 2004-2010. A total of 278 deaths occurred from 1996 to 2010: 197 in the early years of cART [61 (31%) non-AIDS deaths], and 81 during more recent cART period [48 (59%) non-AIDS deaths]. The CIF of AIDS related deaths was higher than CIF of non-AIDS related deaths in the early period [for instance, estimates at 15 yrs from SC: CIF of AIDS-related death = 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12-0.19 ) and CIF of non-AIDS related = 0.09 (95% CI: 0.07-0.12)], whilst in 2004-2010 period the CIF of non-AIDS related deaths was slightly higher [estimates at 15 yrs from SC: CIF of non-AIDS related = 0.03 (95% CI: 0.02-0.04) vs. CIF of AIDS-related death = 0.02 (95% CI: 0.02-0.04)]. Comparing the two periods by Cox proportional-cause-specific models, the hazard was lower for AIDS deaths than for non-AIDS related deaths [RH of non-AIDS deaths from last viral load (VL) < 200 copies/mL was 0.60 (95% CI (0.35-1.03)], while of AIDS-deaths was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.17-0.62), both RH relative to (2004-2010) vs. (1996- 2003)]. Conclusions: Considering early years of the cART period as a reference, we observed a decrease in both AIDS and non-AIDS-mortalities. In more recent cART years, non-AIDS mortality tended to decline less than AIDS-relatedmortality since HIV-SC, even after effective cART

Contextualizing the China dream: a reinforced consultative Leninist approach to government

After he took over as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission in November 2012, Xi Jinping articulated for the first time ‘the China dream’ at ‘the road to revival’ exhibition at the National Museum in Beijing. As he did so he stressed that since the start of the reform period China had finally found the way to restore the greatness of the country and it was called ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’.1 What Xi has revealed is not a new political system or even a new term to describe it. It is a confidence in the existing political system which, despite all its faults, he now believes is sufficiently strong, effective and robust to deliver the national revival encapsulated in his ‘China dream’. The nature of the system that Xi loosely refers to, in line with the long-standing usage after the end of the Mao Zedong era, as ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ gets clearer if it is set within the analytical framework of consultative Leninism

A population-based cohort approach to assess excess mortality due to the spread of COVID-19 in Italy, January-May 2020

Aims: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Italy during the first wave of the epidemic, taking into consideration the geographical heterogeneity of the spread of COVID-19. Methods: This study is a retrospective, population-based cohort study using national statistics throughout Italy. Survival analysis was applied to data aggregated by day of death, age groups, sex, and Italian administrative units (107 provinces). We applied Cox models to estimate the relative hazards (RH) of excess mortality, comparing all-cause deaths in 2020 with the expected deaths from all causes in the same time period. The RH of excess deaths was estimated in areas with a high, moderate, and low spread of COVID-19. We reported the estimate also restricting the analysis to the period of March-April 2020 (first peak of the epidemic). Results: The study population consisted of 57,204,501 individuals living in Italy as of January 1, 2020. The number of excess deaths was 36,445, which accounts for 13.4% of excess mortalities from all causes during January-May 2020 (i.e., RH = 1.134; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.129-1.140). In the macro-area with a relatively higher spread of COVID-19 (i.e., incidence rate, IR): 450-1,610 cases per 100,000 residents), the RH of excess deaths was 1.375 (95% CI: 1.364-1.386). In the area with a relatively moderate spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 150-449 cases) it was 1.049 (95% CI: 1.038-1.060). In the area with a relatively lower spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 30-149 cases), it was 0.967 (95% CI: 0.959-0.976). Between March and April (peak months of the first wave of the epidemic in Italy), we estimated an excess mortality from all causes of 43.5%. The RH of all-cause mortality for increments of 500 cases per 100,000 residents was 1.352 (95% CI: 1.346-1.359), corresponding to an increase of about 35%. Conclusions: Our analysis, making use of a population-based cohort model, estimated all-cause excess mortality in Italy taking account of both time period and of COVID-19 geographical spread. The study highlights the importance of a temporal/geographic framework in analyzing the risk of COVID-19-epidemy related mortality