Forecasting a Language Shift Based on Cellular Automata

Language extinction as a consequence of language shifts is a widespread social phenomenon that affects several million people all over the world today. An important task for social sciences research should therefore be to gain an understanding of language shifts, especially as a way of forecasting the extinction or survival of threatened languages, i.e., determining whether or not the subordinate language will survive in communities with a dominant and a subordinate language. In general, modeling is usually a very difficult task in the social sciences, particularly when it comes to forecasting the values of variables. However, the cellular automata theory can help us overcome this traditional difficulty. The purpose of this article is to investigate language shifts in the speech behavior of individuals using the methodology of the cellular automata theory. The findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology and the empirical data from language surveys on the use of Catalan in Valencia allowed us to define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations using that automaton. The simulation results highlighted the key factors in the progression or reversal of a language shift and the use of these factors allowed us to forecast the future of a threatened language in a bilingual community.Cellular Automata, Computational Simulations, Language, Social Dynamics

Social Simulation Based on Cellular Automata: Modeling Language Shifts

Nowadays, language shifts (i.e., a community of speakers stops using their traditional language and speaks a new one in all communication settings) may produce a massive extinction of languages throughout the world. In this context, an important task for social sciences research should therefore be to achieve a deep comprehension of language shifts. However, modeling the social and behavioral variables that guide the social behavior of individuals and groups has traditionally been tricky in all the social sciences. In this situation, social simulation provides a tool for testing hypotheses and building models of social phenomena (see, for example, Gilbert, 1996; Gilbert & Toitzsch, 2005; and Goldspink, 2002), especially the techniques based on cellular automata theory (Hegselmann, 1996; Hegselman & Flache, 1998; Nowak & Lewenstein, 1996). According to this framewok, we introduce the properties of a cellular automaton that incorporates some assumptions from the Gaelic-Arvanitika model of language shifts (Sasse, 1992) and the findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology (Latané, 1981; Nowak et al. 1990). Thus, we define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations in which it is used. We incorporate empirical data from recent sociolinguistic studies in Catalonia (a region in Southern Europe) to run the automaton under different scenarios. The results allow us to highlight some of the main factors involved in a language shift. Finally, we also discuss how the social simulation based on cellular automata theory approach proves to be a useful tool for understanding language shifts

Prospectiva de la llengua a Catalunya: simulació amb autòmats cel·lulars

L'artilce aborda l'aplicació d'eines informàtiques de simulació en l'àmbit psicosocial a la situació de la llengua a Catalunya per extreure'n escenaris de futur. En primer lloc, aborda el context metodològic de la simulació social amb autòmats cel·lulars. En segon lloc, s'aplica el mètode i el sistema als resultats de l''Enquesta d'Usos Lingüístics de Població 2008' i se n'extreuen resultats. Finalment, s'apunten algunes conclusions

Forecasting a language shift based on cellular automata

Language extinction as a consequence of language shifts is a widespread social phenomenon that affects several million people all over the world today. An important task for social sciences research should therefore be to gain an understanding of language shifts, especially as a way of forecasting the extinction or survival of threatened languages, i.e., determining whether or not the subordinate language will survive in communities with a dominant and a subordinate language. In general, modeling is usually a very difficult task in the social sciences, particularly when it comes to forecasting the values of variables. However, the cellular automata theory can help us overcome this traditional difficulty. The purpose of this article is to investigate language shifts in the speech behavior of individuals using the methodology of the cellular automata theory. The findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology and the empirical data from language surveys on the use of Catalan in Valencia allowed us to define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations using that automaton. The simulation results highlighted the key factors in the progression or reversal of a language shift and the use of these factors allowed us to forecast the future of a threatened language in a bilingual community

Prospectiva de la llengua a Catalunya: simulació amb autòmats cel·lulars

L"article aborda l"aplicació d"eines informàtiques de simulació en l"àmbit psicosocial a la situació de la llengua a Catalunya per extreure"n escenaris de futur. En primer lloc, s"aborda el context metodològic de la simulació social amb autòmats cel·lulars. En segon lloc, s"aplica el mètode i el sistema als resultats de l"Enquesta d"usos lingüístics de la població 2008 i se n"extreuen resultats. Finalment, s"apunten unes conclusions

Forecasting a language shift based on cellular automata

Language extinction as a consequence of language shifts is a widespread social phenomenon that affects several million people all over the world today. An important task for social sciences research should therefore be to gain an understanding of language shifts, especially as a way of forecasting the extinction or survival of threatened languages, i.e., determining whether or not the subordinate language will survive in communities with a dominant and a subordinate language. In general, modeling is usually a very difficult task in the social sciences, particularly when it comes to forecasting the values of variables. However, the cellular automata theory can help us overcome this traditional difficulty. The purpose of this article is to investigate language shifts in the speech behavior of individuals using the methodology of the cellular automata theory. The findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology and the empirical data from language surveys on the use of Catalan in Valencia allowed us to define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations using that automaton. The simulation results highlighted the key factors in the progression or reversal of a language shift and the use of these factors allowed us to forecast the future of a threatened language in a bilingual community

Prospectiva de la llengua a Catalunya: simulació amb autòmats cel·lulars

L'artilce aborda l'aplicació d'eines informàtiques de simulació en l'àmbit psicosocial a la situació de la llengua a Catalunya per extreure'n escenaris de futur. En primer lloc, aborda el context metodològic de la simulació social amb autòmats cel·lulars. En segon lloc, s'aplica el mètode i el sistema als resultats de l''Enquesta d'Usos Lingüístics de Població 2008' i se n'extreuen resultats. Finalment, s'apunten algunes conclusions