ОЦЕНКА ЭЛАСТИЧНОСТИ ТРАНСПОРТНОГО СПРОСА НА ОСНОВЕ МОДЕЛЕЙ ВЫБОРА СПОСОБА ПЕРЕДВИЖЕНИЯ В ГОРОДАХ

To develop travel demand management measures there is a need to estimate the travel cost and level-of-service attribute elasticities of travel demand for a certain mode. Estimation of travel demand elasticities can be carried out on the basis of urban travel mode choice models.The purpose of the study was to describe and test an approach to estimate the elasticities of travel demand based on urban travel mode choice models.Materials and methods: the approach to estimate the elasticities of travel demand is based on mathematical modeling of urban travel mode choices. The empirical data for model development and conduction of model experiments were the results of household travel survey within the city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, as well as data on the travel cost and level-of-service attributes of each travel mode.Results: the approach was described and tested to estimate the travel cost and level-of-service attribute elasticities of travel demand for the short term (up to 2 years).Practical implications. The results of the study can be used to estimate the elasticities of transport demand in the development of travel demand management measures in cities.При разработке мероприятий по управлению транспортным спросом возникает потребность в оценке эластичности спроса на передвижения определенным способом по стоимости или характеристике качества транспортного обслуживания. Оценка эластичности транспортного спроса может быть осуществлена на основе моделей выбора способа передвижения.Цель исследования – описание и применение подхода к оценке эластичности транспортного спроса на основе моделей выбора способа передвижения в городах.Материалы и методы исследования: подход к оценке эластичности транспортного спроса основывается на математическом моделировании выбора способа передвижения в городах. Эмпирической базой для разработки моделей и проведения модельных экспериментов являлись результаты социологического исследования подвижности населения города Южно-Сахалинска, а также данные о стоимости передвижений и характеристиках качества транспортного обслуживания каждым способом передвижения.Результаты: описан и апробирован подход к оценке эластичности спроса по стоимостным и качественным характеристикам транспортного обслуживания на краткосрочную перспективу (до двух лет).Применение результатов исследования: результаты исследования могут использоваться для оценки эластичности транспортного спроса при разработке мероприятий по управлению транспортным спросом в городах

ВЗАИМОСВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ УРОВНЕМ АВТОМОБИЛИЗАЦИИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ И ДОЛЕЙ ПЕРЕДВИЖЕНИЙ НА ЛЕГКОВЫХ АВТОМОБИЛЯХ В ГОРОДАХ

In order to plan and predict the development of urban transport systems, it is necessary to understand the relationships between car ownership and car usage indicators for various options of urban transport policy.The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between car ownership and share of trips on passenger cars within the framework of the conventional approach to transport systems development and the approach based on the concept of sustainable development.Materials and methods. The methods of regression analysis were used to build the dependencies between car ownership and share of trips on passenger cars in cities. The dependencies were built on the basis of synthesis the urban mobility studies results in some cities of Russia, Eastern and Western Europe over the past fifty years.Results. The share of trips on passenger cars increases with the increase of car ownership. The dependence is well described by the logistic curve. The approach based on the concept of sustainable development is associated with a targeted reduction in the share of trips on passenger cars. The analysis shows that car ownership decreases with a decrease in the share of trips on passenger cars, but such decrease occurs with a delay. There is a hysteresis phenomenon.Practical implications. The results of the study help to better understand the changes in the travel behavior associated with car ownership and using a car, depending on the transport policy being pursued. Для планирования и прогнозирования развития транспортных систем городов необходимо понимание взаимосвязей показателей владения и использования автомобилей для различных вариантов проводимой транспортной политики.Целью исследования – определение взаимосвязи между уровнем автомобилизации населения и долей передвижений на легковых автомобилях в городах в рамках инерционного подхода к развитию городских транспортных систем и подхода, основанного на концепции устойчивого развития.Материалы и методы исследования: для построения зависимостей между уровнем автомобилизации населения и долей передвижений на легковых автомобилях в городах использовались методы регрессионного анализа. Зависимости построены на основе данных, полученных в результате синтеза результатов исследований подвижности населения в ряде городов России, Восточной и Западной Европы за последние пятьдесят лет.Результаты: при инерционном подходе к развитию городских транспортных систем доля передвижений на легковых автомобилях увеличивается с ростом уровня автомобилизации. Зависимость хорошо описывается логистической функцией. Подход, основанный на концепции устойчивого развития, направлен на снижение доли передвижений на легковых автомобилях. Проведенный анализ показывает, что вместе со снижением доли передвижений на легковых автомобилях снижается уровень автомобилизации населения, но такое снижение происходит с задержкой. Имеет место явление гистерезиса.Применение результатов исследования: результаты исследования помогают лучше понимать происходящие изменения в транспортном поведении людей, связанные с автомобилизацией населения и использованием легковых автомобилей для осуществления передвижений в зависимости от проводимой транспортной политики.

Estimated Atmospheric Emission from Motor Transport in Moscow Based on Transport Model of the City

AbstractMotor transport is a main contributor to atmospheric air pollution in big cities. Estimation and forecast of harmful substances emission from motor transport is an important task in the framework of development of sustainable urban transport policy in big cities. Calculation method for motor transport emission inventory was developed by NIIAT taking into account of existing approaches (CORINAIR) and specific features of national motor fleet and traffic conditions. On the base of transport model of the city (Moscow), traffic data, data on congestions received from GPS tracks and data of traffic investigations there were made calculations of existing motor transport emission. In calculation there were also used the existing data on motor fuels environmental quality. The results of calculations gave the existing picture of distribution of motor transport emission in Moscow by vehicle types, by their environmental classes, by harmful substances (20 substances including such as benzpyrene, aldehyde), by territory (central part, motorways, residential areas) and by time of day.On the base of developed calculation method and the use of modified transport model of the city there was made estimation of motor transport emission in Moscow in the period from 2011 to 2014 taking into account change of motor fleet, changes in town-planning, in urban road infrastructure, in public transport system. These calculations gives the base for City Government policy decisions assessment

Model for the assessment greenhouse gas emissions from road transport

A three-level model for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mobile and stationary road transport facilities of a state or region, proposed in this article, takes account into GHG emissions from a vehicle fleet (mobile objects) and road transport infrastructure (network of car services, road network of various categories). Additionally, it has been developed the intellectual system which evaluates the reliability of the array of initial data, by increasing the range and adjusting (if necessary) the values of individual indicators, as the result we achieving the convergence of the calculating GHG emissions from motor vehicles according to the models of all three levels of assessment. This ensures verification of the obtained gross GHG emissions. Evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions using three-level model was carried out for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region (Russian Federation), they shown the possibility of reducing by 2030 by 3.2 ... 12.4% of gross GHG emissions by motor transport of the Russian Federation in comparison with 2015. For St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, both the reduction of gross GHG emissions by road transport (12.7% innovative scenario) and their growth (4.8% inertial scenario) are expected during the forecast period. At the same time, both for the St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region and for the state as a whole, a significant reduction in gross GHG emissions by road transport is expected in the period after 2025 due to the intensive replacement of cars on oil fuel by electric vehicles and hybrids, changes in the transport behavior of the population, the development of public passenger transport and cycling, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, etc

Potential of Core-Collapse Supernova Neutrino Detection at JUNO

JUNO is an underground neutrino observatory under construction in Jiangmen, China. It uses 20kton liquid scintillator as target, which enables it to detect supernova burst neutrinos of a large statistics for the next galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) and also pre-supernova neutrinos from the nearby CCSN progenitors. All flavors of supernova burst neutrinos can be detected by JUNO via several interaction channels, including inverse beta decay, elastic scattering on electron and proton, interactions on C12 nuclei, etc. This retains the possibility for JUNO to reconstruct the energy spectra of supernova burst neutrinos of all flavors. The real time monitoring systems based on FPGA and DAQ are under development in JUNO, which allow prompt alert and trigger-less data acquisition of CCSN events. The alert performances of both monitoring systems have been thoroughly studied using simulations. Moreover, once a CCSN is tagged, the system can give fast characterizations, such as directionality and light curve

Detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background with JUNO

As an underground multi-purpose neutrino detector with 20 kton liquid scintillator, Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is competitive with and complementary to the water-Cherenkov detectors on the search for the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB). Typical supernova models predict 2-4 events per year within the optimal observation window in the JUNO detector. The dominant background is from the neutral-current (NC) interaction of atmospheric neutrinos with 12C nuclei, which surpasses the DSNB by more than one order of magnitude. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of NC background from the spread of a variety of data-driven models and further developed a method to determine NC background within 15\% with {\it{in}} {\it{situ}} measurements after ten years of running. Besides, the NC-like backgrounds can be effectively suppressed by the intrinsic pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) capabilities of liquid scintillators. In this talk, I will present in detail the improvements on NC background uncertainty evaluation, PSD discriminator development, and finally, the potential of DSNB sensitivity in JUNO

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the Universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the SN burst is a unique opportunity to realize the multi-messenger observation of the CCSN events. In this work, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to the pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), which is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed with both the prompt monitors on the electronic board and online monitors at the data acquisition stage, in order to ensure both the alert speed and alert coverage of progenitor stars. By assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system can be sensitive to the pre-SN neutrinos up to the distance of about 1.6 (0.9) kpc and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kpc for a progenitor mass of 30$M_{\odot}$ for the case of normal (inverted) mass ordering. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by using the accumulated event anisotropy of the inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos, which, along with the early alert, can play important roles for the followup multi-messenger observations of the next Galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Recommendations for Green and Healthy Sustainable Transport - "Building Forward Better"

The pan-European region has been at the forefront in the development of sustainable mobility solutions focusing on health, environment and prosperity. The Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme (THE PEP) brings the countries of the region together, unites three core sectors of the economy – transport, health and environment – and provides countries with the opportunity to share best practice and develop new policies. It therefore provides a platform for accelerating transformation in the transport sector and making this transformation irreversible. The recommendations, developed by a task force under THE PEP, will allow member States to lock in sustainable transport solutions for the future, given the changes to the sector brought on by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. At the meeting of the Bureau of the Steering Committee of THE PEP in April 2020, member States discussed the COVID-19 situation, its impact on transport, environment and health in their countries and the need to take action. Participants agreed to establish a THE PEP Task Force on “The Development of Green and Healthy Sustainable Transport Recommendations” to facilitate the transition to a new normal with sustainable and healthy transport solutions at the heart of decision-making and “building forward better”. The objective of the Task Force was to make a synthesis of the “main lessons” learned from the COVID-19 crisis and to propose a set of recommendations in order to support countries in making the transition to green and healthy sustainable transport:1 a transition in line with the goals of THE PEP,2 the Vienna Declaration of the Fifth High-Level Meeting of the Ministers of Transport, Health and Environment, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement,3 to name the key processes and instruments. The Task Force was composed of over 50 experts from national ministries, international organizations, city authorities, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), academia and industry. The Task Force was chaired by the Chair of THE PEP Steering Committee, Mr. Robert Thaler (Austria).The first draft of the recommendations was discussed at the meeting of the Steering Committee of THE PEP in November 2020 and, following further consultations, was finalized in January 2021.4 The recommendations identified in chapter III below were then included in the Vienna Declaration to be signed at the Fifth High-level Meeting on Transport, Health and Environment in May 2021

Mass Testing and Characterization of 20-inch PMTs for JUNO

Main goal of the JUNO experiment is to determine the neutrino mass ordering using a 20kt liquid-scintillator detector. Its key feature is an excellent energy resolution of at least 3 % at 1 MeV, for which its instruments need to meet a certain quality and thus have to be fully characterized. More than 20,000 20-inch PMTs have been received and assessed by JUNO after a detailed testing program which began in 2017 and elapsed for about four years. Based on this mass characterization and a set of specific requirements, a good quality of all accepted PMTs could be ascertained. This paper presents the performed testing procedure with the designed testing systems as well as the statistical characteristics of all 20-inch PMTs intended to be used in the JUNO experiment, covering more than fifteen performance parameters including the photocathode uniformity. This constitutes the largest sample of 20-inch PMTs ever produced and studied in detail to date, i.e. 15,000 of the newly developed 20-inch MCP-PMTs from Northern Night Vision Technology Co. (NNVT) and 5,000 of dynode PMTs from Hamamatsu Photonics K. K.(HPK)