Internal Migration and the Role of Intergenerational Family Ties and Life Events

ObjectiveThis article examines how the migration behavior of older parents and adult children might be influenced by the geographical configuration of nonresident family networks and the emergence of “linked” life events.BackgroundResearchers have long pointed to the importance of intrahousehold family events as triggers for migration, yet few have detailed how choices over whether, when, and where to migrate are formed with reference to significant others outside of the household.MethodUtilizing geocoded register data for Norway, we identified intergenerational family networks comprising older parents (aged 55+) and their nonresident adult children living 20 km or more apart. We recorded the presence and location of various family ties, the occurrence of several life events, and analyzed their association with the propensity and direction of migration using multinomial logistic regression.ResultsApproximately 40% of all recorded migration events (≥20 km) were directed toward familial locations (i.e., within 10 km of a parent/adult child). The attractiveness of familial locations was strengthened by the colocation of multiple family members and increased with the emergence of life events typically linked to increased support‐needs (e.g., separation, widowhood, and childbirth). Beyond these general patterns, variations existed according to social class, immigrant background, and gender.ConclusionWith the estimated coefficients for nonresident family ties appearing larger than many conventional predictors of migration, we call for far more attention to be paid to the links between kinship networks, care provision, and migration in contemporary society

Interrelationships among fertility, internal migration, and proximity to nonresident family:A multilevel multiprocess analysis

Past research has found that relations to nonresident family can influence individual fertility and migration behaviors separately. However, fertility and migration outcomes may also be interrelated, suggesting potential links across all three demographic processes. With this in mind, we track a cohort of women in Norway from age 18 to 31, recording the emergence of birth and migration events as well as their prox-im ity to nonresident family networks (siblings and parents). Using a multilevel multiprocess statistical framework, with observations nested within women and equations for births, migrations, and proximity to nonresident family estimated simultaneously, our results support the notion that linked lives matter. Even in early adulthood, prox-im ity to nonresident family has a positive effect on transitions to motherhood, whereas the presence of children (itself an outcome of past fertility) is associated with lower propensities to migrate. Mothers also have higher propensities to be living near family than women without children. The presence of local nonresident family reduces pro-pen sities for second and third migrations. However, after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and selection, we observe a small positive effect of proximity to family on first migrations undertaken after age 18. Significant cross-process residual correla-tions exist across all three outcomes, suggesting that separately estimated model esti-ma tes may be vulnerable to bias emerging from unobserved sources of heterogeneity and selection. Our analysis therefore suggests that decisions about fertility, migration, and proximity to family are jointly determined and endogenous, and they should be analyzed simultaneously when possible.</p

Interrelationships among fertility, internal migration, and proximity to nonresident family:A multilevel multiprocess analysis

Past research has found that relations to nonresident family can influence individual fertility and migration behaviors separately. However, fertility and migration outcomes may also be interrelated, suggesting potential links across all three demographic processes. With this in mind, we track a cohort of women in Norway from age 18 to 31, recording the emergence of birth and migration events as well as their proximity to nonresident family networks (siblings and parents). Using a multilevel multiprocess statistical framework, with observations nested within women and equations for births, migrations, and proximity to nonresident family estimated simultaneously, our results support the notion that linked lives matter. Even in early adulthood, proximity to nonresident family has a positive effect on transitions to motherhood, whereas the presence of children (itself an outcome of past fertility) is associated with lower propensities to migrate. Mothers also have higher propensities to be living near family than women without children. The presence of local nonresident family reduces propensities for second and third migrations. However, after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and selection, we observe a small positive effect of proximity to family on first migrations undertaken after age 18. Significant cross-process residual correlations exist across all three outcomes, suggesting that separately estimated model estimates may be vulnerable to bias emerging from unobserved sources of heterogeneity and selection. Our analysis therefore suggests that decisions about fertility, migration, and proximity to family are jointly determined and endogenous, and they should be analyzed simultaneously when possible.publishedVersio

Berufliche Verselbständigung von Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen: Italien, West-Deutschland und Schweden im Vergleich

"In modernen Industriegesellschaften ist die berufliche Orientierung ein zentrales Motiv bei der individuellen Identitätsfindung von Jugendlichen. Der Einstieg in den Arbeitsmarkthat aber auch eine hohe Bedeutung für die soziale Verselbständigung, die durch Ereignisse wie Auszug aus dem Elternhaus, Gründung eines eigenen Haushaltes bis hin zu Eheschließung und Familienbildung gekennzeichnet ist. Eine hohe Jugendarbeitslosigkeit oder geringere individuelle Qualifikationen können nicht nur den Weg in die ökonomische Unabhängigkeit, sondern auch den Übergangin die soziale Selbständigkeit gefährden. So gibt es beispielsweise klare Befunde, dass sich eine späte berufliche Integration auch verzögernd auf den sozialen Verselbständigungsprozess auswirkt. Es stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern Jugendliche dabei in verschiedenen kulturellen oder nationalstaatlichen Kontexten unterschiedliche Bewältigungsstrategien entwickeln (können). Jugendliche in Italien, West-Deutschland und Schweden haben aufgrund spezifischer Normvorstellungen und sozialstaatlicher Leistungen jeweils andere Möglichkeiten, die berufliche Integration mit der sozialen Verselbständigung zu verknüpfen. Der Berufseinstieg von jungen italienischen Männern stellt sich im Vergleich als besonders problematisch und fragil dar. Zum einen können junge Italienererst zu einem relativ späten Zeitpunkt im Arbeitsmarkt Fuß fassen und zum anderen wird dadurch ihr sozialer Verselbständigungsprozess gefährdet. Diese hohe Abhängigkeit von einer gelungenen beruflichen Integration ist bei jungen Frauen insgesamt geringer, aber variiert nach nationaler Zugehörigkeit. Das Thema wird auf der Basis des Fertility and Family Surveys der United NationsEconomic Commission for Europe bearbeitet. Die drei ausgewählten Länder stehensowohl beispielhaft für verschiedene kulturelle Regionen in Europa als auch für drei unterschiedliche Sozialstaatsmodelle. Der Schwerpunkt des Vortrages liegt auf dem timing des Erwerbseinstieges und dessen Einbettung in andere Statusübergänge auf dem Weg ins Erwachsenenalter. Es werden unterschiedliche Bewältigungsstrategien von Jugendlichen aufgezeigt. Somit können auch Rahmenbedingungen benannt werden, die die Jugendlichen bei dieser wichtigen Übergangsphase unterstützen." (Autorenreferat

Changes in the Educational Gradient of Fertility Not Driven by Changes in Preferences

Fertility levels have historically been negatively correlated with the amount of information and material resources available to individuals and families. The recent reversal of this trend has been interpreted as a fundamental change in preferences, a return to large families led by more educated individuals. Our analysis shows, however, that the recently documented changes in fertility can be reproduced in the context of declining family size preferences across educational levels, and without assuming any transformation of the underlying behavioral mechanisms that link resources and fertility across cohorts. We demonstrate this point by replicating the stylized facts reported in previous studies using a simulated dataset. We generate this dataset from a model that assumes continuity in the way education shapes reproductive intentions over time. In our simulated population, the reversal in the relationship between education and fertility emerges as a result of the transition from a natural to a regulated fertility regime, as the share of unplanned births decreases over time, and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with desired fertility become dominant. We conclude, thus, that the explanation for the weakening educational gradient of fertility lies primarily in the decline of unintended fertility, instead of in changes in fertility preferences.acceptedVersio

The cash-for-care reform and immigrant fertility: fewer babies of poorer families?

Cash-for care policies are contested in many contexts, as they represent an incentive for childrearing over work that may reduce labour market participation, especially among immigrant women. From 1 July 2017, immigrants (both the mother and the father) from outside the European Economic Area must have at least 5 years of residence in Norway to be entitled to cash-for-care benefits. Previous research indicates that this reform did not lead to increased labour market participation of mothers and fathers treated by the reform. In this article, we examine whether the changes in the cash-forcare benefits policy have resulted in a substantive change in income and if the reform had an impact on the childbearing behaviour among those affected by the reform. Our descriptive analyses indicate no change in employment rates and household income. To detect possible changes in fertility, we employ a Difference-in-Difference approach, in which we compare the treatment group with four comparison groups. Overall, we find no substantial effect of the cash-for-care reform on childbearing behaviour.This work was funded by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusio

Understanding the positive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s fertility in Norway

This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macro level have found a positive short-term effect of the pandemic on fertility level in Norway, but women’s fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending on their life situation. We use the first lockdown on March 12, 2020 as a marker of the pandemic and apply a regression discontinuity design to compare births of women that were conceived before the pandemic started with those conceived during the first eight months of the pandemic. The positive effect on women’s fertility in Norway was mainly driven by women in life phases that have generally high fertility rates (women aged 28–35 years and women who already have children). These groups are likely to be in an economic and socially secure and stable situation in which the restrictions due to the pandemic had limited influence. Besides two exceptions, we do not find differences in the effect of the pandemic on childbearing by women’s work situation. This is most likely related to the strong welfare state and the generous additional pandemic-related measures taken by the Norwegian government

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of The Theory of Planned Behavior

By adopting a dyadic extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), this study examined whether perceived economic uncertainty affects fertility intentions. Three-hundred thirty one heterosexual couples living in Italy participated in a randomized between-group experimental study, in which we manipulated perceived economic uncertainty (low vs. high vs. control). The participants subsequently completed a questionnaire measuring their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and fertility intentions. We employed Structural Equation Modelling in estimating the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model. The model showed a good fit to the data. Women’s attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were influenced by the high economic uncertain scenario, whereas among men these variables were affected only by the positive economic scenario. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of fertility intentions for both sexes. Significant partner effects were observed as well. These findings suggest that fertility plans should be examined by adopting a dyadic perspective, as individuals’ intentions are affected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners

Gender equality in the family and childbearing

This study focuses on the possible effect of gender equality and equity in the family on the transition to first, second and third births. The analysis includes the division of housework and childcare as well as the perception of whether this division is fair and just. We use a unique dataset combining data from the Norwegian GGS (2007) with information from population register on subsequent childbirths. Results indicate a varying effect of gender equality in the family on childbearing. An unequal division of housework has a negative effect on first and subsequent births. Couples were men contribute more to housework than women, have lower likelihood of first and second births compared to couples with a more typical division where women do more but men contribute substantially. In the same way, couples where the woman does almost all housework has lower likelihood of a third birth. Even though the division of childcare has no substantial impact on continued childbearing, the perception of this division is relevant for parents with one child. Couples in which the respondent perceives the division of childcare as less equitable are less likely to get a second child.Research Council of Norway (project no. 202442/S20), (grant no. 195403) NOVApublishedVersio

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

By adopting a dyadic extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), this study examined whether perceived economic uncertainty afects fertility intentions. Three-hundred thirty one heterosexual couples living in Italy participated in a randomized between-group experimental study, in which we manipulated perceived economic uncertainty (low vs. high vs. control). The participants subsequently completed a questionnaire measuring their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and fertility intentions. We employed Structural Equation Modelling in estimating the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model. The model showed a good ft to the data. Women’s attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were infuenced by the high economic uncertain scenario, whereas among men these variables were afected only by the positive economic scenario. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were signifcant predictors of fertility intentions for both sexes. Signifcant partner efects were observed as well. These fndings suggest that fertility plans should be examined by adopting a dyadic perspective, as individuals’ intentions are afected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners.Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned BehaviourpublishedVersio