Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project

Background: The Mayo Lung Project (MLP), a randomized controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening conducted between 1971 and 1986 among male smokers aged 45 or above, demonstrated an increase in lung cancer survival since the time of diagnosis, but no reduction in lung cancer mortality. Whether this result necessarily indicates a lack of mortality benefit for screening remains controversial. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed outcome, including over-diagnosis, screening sensitivity, and population heterogeneity (initial difference in lung cancer risks between the two trial arms). This study is intended to provide model-based testing for some of these important arguments.Method: Using a micro-simulation model, the MISCAN-lung model, we explore the possible influence of screening sensitivity, systematic error, over-diagnosis and population heterogeneity.Results: Calibrating screening sensitivity, systematic error, or over-diagnosis does not noticeably improve the fit of the model, whereas calibrating population heterogeneity helps the model predict lung cancer incidence better.Conclusions: Our conclusion is that the hypothesized imperfection in screening sensitivity, systematic error, and over-diagnosis do not in themselves explain the observed trial results. Model fit improvement achieved by accounting for population heterogeneity suggests a higher risk of cancer incidence in the intervention group as compared with the control group

Pain and Frailty in Hospitalized Older Adults

Introduction: Pain and frailty are prevalent conditions in the older population. Many chronic diseases are likely involved in their origin, and both have a negative impact on quality of life. However, few studies have analysed their association. Methods: In light of this knowledge gap, 3577 acutely hospitalized patients 65 years or older enrolled in the REPOSI register, an Italian network of internal medicine and geriatric hospital wards, were assessed to calculate the frailty index (FI). The impact of pain and some of its characteristics on the degree of frailty was evaluated using an ordinal logistic regression model after adjusting for age and gender. Results: The prevalence of pain was 24.7%, and among patients with pain, 42.9% was regarded as chronic pain. Chronic pain was associated with severe frailty (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.38–2.07). Somatic pain (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.23–2.07) and widespread pain (OR = 1.60, 95% CI 0.93–2.78) were associated with frailty. Osteoarthritis was the most common cause of chronic pain, diagnosed in 157 patients (33.5%). Polymyalgia, rheumatoid arthritis and other musculoskeletal diseases causing chronic pain were associated with a lower degree of frailty than osteoarthritis (OR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.28–0.85). Conclusions: Chronic and somatic pain negatively affect the degree of frailty. The duration and type of pain, as well as the underlying diseases associated with chronic pain, should be evaluated to improve the hospital management of frail older people

The multifaceted spectrum of liver cirrhosis in older hospitalised patients: Analysis of the REPOSI registry

Background: Knowledge on the main clinical and prognostic characteristics of older multimorbid subjects with liver cirrhosis (LC) admitted to acute medical wards is scarce. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of LC among older patients admitted to acute medical wards and to assess the main clinical characteristics of LC along with its association with major clinical outcomes and to explore the possibility that well-distinguished phenotypic profiles of LC have classificatory and prognostic properties. Methods: A cohort of 6,193 older subjects hospitalised between 2010 and 2018 and included in the REPOSI registry was analysed. Results: LC was diagnosed in 315 patients (5%). LC was associated with rehospitalisation (age-sex adjusted hazard ratio, [aHR] 1.44; 95% CI, 1.10-1.88) and with mortality after discharge, independently of all confounders (multiple aHR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.37-3.22), but not with in-hospital mortality and incident disability. Three main clinical phenotypes of LC patients were recognised: relatively fit subjects (FIT, N = 150), subjects characterised by poor social support (PSS, N = 89) and, finally, subjects with disability and multimorbidity (D&M, N = 76). PSS subjects had an increased incident disability (35% vs 13%, P < 0.05) compared to FIT. D&M patients had a higher mortality (in-hospital: 12% vs 3%/1%, P < 0.01; post-discharge: 41% vs 12%/15%, P < 0.01) and less rehospitalisation (10% vs 32%/34%, P < 0.01) compared to PSS and FIT. Conclusions: LC has a relatively low prevalence in older hospitalised subjects but, when present, accounts for worse post-discharge outcomes. Phenotypic analysis unravelled the heterogeneity of LC older population and the association of selected phenotypes with different clinical and prognostic features

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P < .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients

Judges versus jurors: biased attributions in the courtroom

The fundamental purpose of a tort trial is to allocate responsibility. However, attributing fault is difficult, and decades of research in psychology have shown that human beings are prone to make systematic errors in performing this task. What can be done about this? The United States and countries in continental Europe adopt diametrically opposed strategies to reduce errors in the attribution of responsibility in the courtroom. American law delegates fact-finding to jurors and makes some type of evidence inadmissible in court to protect jurors from potentially biasing information, such as character evidence. European legal systems, instead, employ almost exclusively judges to perform fact-finding and allow character evidence at trial, under the assumption that judges are better than laypeople in weighing the probative value of this type of evidence. There is a longstanding debate among legal scholars on whether the American or the European approach reduces more trial errors, but the relative performance of the two legal systems remains largely untested. This article is the first to provide evidence on the relative performance of these two systems. Our results suggest that jurors fail to correctly apply European rules of character evidence. The American rules on the inadmissibility of character evidence seem therefore a more appropriate choice when fact-finding is performed by jurors. We find also that, contrary to jurors, judges apply European rules correctly and thus reduce the risk of errors in the attribution of responsibility. Overall, this result indicates that the American and the European evidence rules to improve fact-finding are well set up. Nonetheless, we also find that neither of the two systems is able to prevent factfinders' errors in the attribution responsibility when these mistakes are not due to the type of evidence presented at trial but to (unconscious) beliefs held by factfinders themselves. We thus propose a set of policies that could improve factfinders' ability to avoid mistakes in attributing responsibility.</p

The "Pavia model" of experimental small bowel transplantation in pigs: technical variations for ischemia reperfusion injury studies.

Ischemia reperfusion injury (IRI) is a major field of study in small bowel transplantation because of its implications regarding intestinal immunity. In this study, we have introduced some variations to the described models of IRI in pigs to make possible a complete isolation of the small bowel for IRI studies. In swine, two anatomical barriers make impossible a complete isolation of the small bowel at the origin of superior mesenteric artery (SMA) and vein (SMV): the main colic vessels, which originate distally to form SMA and SMV, and the blood supply of the distal portion of the duodenum and the cephalic part of the pancreas. In a group of Large White pigs (n = 5), we have performed a complete isolation of the small bowel, including sub-total colectomy and pancreaticoduodenectomy. Both SMA and SMV were isolated at the origin from the aorta and at the junction of the splenic vein, respectively. Intestinal continuity was restored with duodenojejunal anastomosis and with ileotransverse colon anastomosis. One pig died on postoperative day 5 from intestinal occlusion due to adhesions. The remaining four pigs were killed on postoperative day 7 after an uneventful postoperative course. No complications were found at autopsy. In swine, resection of part of the pancreas and duodenum and removal of the large bowel does not affect short-term survival, allowing a full isolation of the entire small bowel mimicking the transplantation procedure. Thus, this model appears to be attractive for IRI studies in the field of intestinal transplantatio

Arterial Decellularized Scaffolds Produced Using an Innovative Automatic System

There is still an unmet clinical need for small-caliber artery substitution. Decellularized scaffolds in tissue engineering represent a promising solution. We have developed an innovative system for the automatic decellularization of blood vessels, used to process pig arteries. The system is able to automatically drive a decellularization process in a safe and reliable environment, with complex time patterns, using up to three different decellularization solutions, and providing at the same time a physical stress to improve the decellularization. The decellularization of pig arteries was evaluated by means of histology, DNA quantification and mechanical testing. Outcomes showed scaffolds with no cellular or nuclear remnants and a well-preserved tissue structure, corroborated by mechanical properties similar to native tissue. Decellularized scaffolds were seeded on the inner layer with human endothelial cells and implanted as iliac artery replacement in 4 pharmacologically immune-compromised pigs. This chimeric model was performed as a very preliminary evaluation to investigate the performances of these scaffolds in vivo, and to investigate the fate of seeded cells. Recipients were sacrificed on day 14 and day 70 after surgery, and vessels were found to be patent and with no evidence of thrombi formation. The inner layer was covered by endothelial cells, and the migration of cells positive for α-smooth-muscle actin was observed from the outer layer towards the tunica media. Intriguingly, the endothelial cells on explanted vessels were entirely derived from the host while the seeded cells were lost. In conclusion, this work presents a novel tool for a safe and controlled production of arterial scaffolds, with good decellularization outcomes and a good performance in a short-term, large-animal implantation