Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project

Background: The Mayo Lung Project (MLP), a randomized controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening conducted between 1971 and 1986 among male smokers aged 45 or above, demonstrated an increase in lung cancer survival since the time of diagnosis, but no reduction in lung cancer mortality. Whether this result necessarily indicates a lack of mortality benefit for screening remains controversial. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed outcome, including over-diagnosis, screening sensitivity, and population heterogeneity (initial difference in lung cancer risks between the two trial arms). This study is intended to provide model-based testing for some of these important arguments.Method: Using a micro-simulation model, the MISCAN-lung model, we explore the possible influence of screening sensitivity, systematic error, over-diagnosis and population heterogeneity.Results: Calibrating screening sensitivity, systematic error, or over-diagnosis does not noticeably improve the fit of the model, whereas calibrating population heterogeneity helps the model predict lung cancer incidence better.Conclusions: Our conclusion is that the hypothesized imperfection in screening sensitivity, systematic error, and over-diagnosis do not in themselves explain the observed trial results. Model fit improvement achieved by accounting for population heterogeneity suggests a higher risk of cancer incidence in the intervention group as compared with the control group

The multifaceted spectrum of liver cirrhosis in older hospitalised patients: Analysis of the REPOSI registry

Background: Knowledge on the main clinical and prognostic characteristics of older multimorbid subjects with liver cirrhosis (LC) admitted to acute medical wards is scarce. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of LC among older patients admitted to acute medical wards and to assess the main clinical characteristics of LC along with its association with major clinical outcomes and to explore the possibility that well-distinguished phenotypic profiles of LC have classificatory and prognostic properties. Methods: A cohort of 6,193 older subjects hospitalised between 2010 and 2018 and included in the REPOSI registry was analysed. Results: LC was diagnosed in 315 patients (5%). LC was associated with rehospitalisation (age-sex adjusted hazard ratio, [aHR] 1.44; 95% CI, 1.10-1.88) and with mortality after discharge, independently of all confounders (multiple aHR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.37-3.22), but not with in-hospital mortality and incident disability. Three main clinical phenotypes of LC patients were recognised: relatively fit subjects (FIT, N = 150), subjects characterised by poor social support (PSS, N = 89) and, finally, subjects with disability and multimorbidity (D&M, N = 76). PSS subjects had an increased incident disability (35% vs 13%, P < 0.05) compared to FIT. D&M patients had a higher mortality (in-hospital: 12% vs 3%/1%, P < 0.01; post-discharge: 41% vs 12%/15%, P < 0.01) and less rehospitalisation (10% vs 32%/34%, P < 0.01) compared to PSS and FIT. Conclusions: LC has a relatively low prevalence in older hospitalised subjects but, when present, accounts for worse post-discharge outcomes. Phenotypic analysis unravelled the heterogeneity of LC older population and the association of selected phenotypes with different clinical and prognostic features

Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

Background: Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods: The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results: A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion: Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)

Pain and Frailty in Hospitalized Older Adults

Introduction: Pain and frailty are prevalent conditions in the older population. Many chronic diseases are likely involved in their origin, and both have a negative impact on quality of life. However, few studies have analysed their association. Methods: In light of this knowledge gap, 3577 acutely hospitalized patients 65 years or older enrolled in the REPOSI register, an Italian network of internal medicine and geriatric hospital wards, were assessed to calculate the frailty index (FI). The impact of pain and some of its characteristics on the degree of frailty was evaluated using an ordinal logistic regression model after adjusting for age and gender. Results: The prevalence of pain was 24.7%, and among patients with pain, 42.9% was regarded as chronic pain. Chronic pain was associated with severe frailty (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.38–2.07). Somatic pain (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.23–2.07) and widespread pain (OR = 1.60, 95% CI 0.93–2.78) were associated with frailty. Osteoarthritis was the most common cause of chronic pain, diagnosed in 157 patients (33.5%). Polymyalgia, rheumatoid arthritis and other musculoskeletal diseases causing chronic pain were associated with a lower degree of frailty than osteoarthritis (OR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.28–0.85). Conclusions: Chronic and somatic pain negatively affect the degree of frailty. The duration and type of pain, as well as the underlying diseases associated with chronic pain, should be evaluated to improve the hospital management of frail older people

Sex-Differences in the Pattern of Comorbidities, Functional Independence, and Mortality in Elderly Inpatients: Evidence from the RePoSI Register

Background: The RePoSi study has provided data on comorbidities, polypharmacy, and sex dimorphism in hospitalised elderly patients. Methods: We retrospectively analysed data collected from the 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 data sets of the RePoSi register. The aim of this study was to explore the sex-differences and to validate the multivariate model in the entire dataset with an expanded follow-up at 1 year. Results: Among 4714 patients, 51% were women and 49% were men. The disease distribution showed that diabetes, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, and malignancy were more frequent in men but that hypertension, anaemia, osteoarthritis, depression, and diverticulitis disease were more common in women. Severity and comorbidity indexes according to the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS-s and CIRS-c) were higher in men, while cognitive impairment, mood disorders, and disability in daily life measured by the Barthel Index (BI) were worse in women. In the multivariate analysis, BI, CIRS, and malignancy significantly increased the risk of death in men at the 1-year follow-up, while age was independently associated with mortality in women. Conclusions: Our study highlighted the relevance and the validity of our previous predictive model in the identification of sex dimorphism in hospitalised elderly patients underscoring the need of sex-personalised health-care

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P < .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients

Judges versus jurors: biased attributions in the courtroom

The fundamental purpose of a tort trial is to allocate responsibility. However, attributing fault is difficult, and decades of research in psychology have shown that human beings are prone to make systematic errors in performing this task. What can be done about this? The United States and countries in continental Europe adopt diametrically opposed strategies to reduce errors in the attribution of responsibility in the courtroom. American law delegates fact-finding to jurors and makes some type of evidence inadmissible in court to protect jurors from potentially biasing information, such as character evidence. European legal systems, instead, employ almost exclusively judges to perform fact-finding and allow character evidence at trial, under the assumption that judges are better than laypeople in weighing the probative value of this type of evidence. There is a longstanding debate among legal scholars on whether the American or the European approach reduces more trial errors, but the relative performance of the two legal systems remains largely untested. This article is the first to provide evidence on the relative performance of these two systems. Our results suggest that jurors fail to correctly apply European rules of character evidence. The American rules on the inadmissibility of character evidence seem therefore a more appropriate choice when fact-finding is performed by jurors. We find also that, contrary to jurors, judges apply European rules correctly and thus reduce the risk of errors in the attribution of responsibility. Overall, this result indicates that the American and the European evidence rules to improve fact-finding are well set up. Nonetheless, we also find that neither of the two systems is able to prevent factfinders' errors in the attribution responsibility when these mistakes are not due to the type of evidence presented at trial but to (unconscious) beliefs held by factfinders themselves. We thus propose a set of policies that could improve factfinders' ability to avoid mistakes in attributing responsibility.</p