Predicting hospital stay, mortality, and readmission in people admitted for hypoglycaemia

Aims/hypothesis Hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia. Methods We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score (‘base’ model). In the second model, we added to the ‘base’ model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables (‘disease’ model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics. Results In derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models. Conclusions/interpretation This simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia

Airway Elastin is increased in severe asthma and relates to proximal wall area: histological and computed tomography findings from the U-BIOPRED severe asthma study

Background: Airway remodelling, which may include goblet cell hyperplasia / hypertrophy, changes in epithelial integrity, accumulation of extracellular matrix components, smooth muscle hypertrophy and thickening of the lamina reticularis, is a feature of severe asthma and contributes to the clinical phenotype. Objective: Within the U-BIOPRED severe asthma study, we have assessed histological elements of airway remodelling and their relationship to computed tomography (CT) measures of proximal airway dimensions. Methods: Bronchial biopsies were collected from two severe asthma groups, one non-smoker (SAn, n = 28) and one current/ex-smoker (SAs/ex, n = 13), and a mild-moderate asthma group (MMA, n = 28) classified and treated according to GINA guidelines, plus a healthy control group (HC, n = 33). Movat's pentachrome technique was used to identify mucin, elastin and total collagen in these biopsies. The number of goblet cells (mucin+) was counted as a percentage of the total number of epithelial cells and the percentage mucin epithelial area measured. The percentage area of elastic fibres and total collagen within the submucosa was also measured, and the morphology of the elastic fibres classified. Participants in the asthma groups also had a CT scan to assess large airway morphometry. Results: The submucosal tissue elastin percentage was higher in both severe asthma groups (16.1% SAn, 18.9% SAs/ex) compared with the HC (9.7%) but did not differ between asthma groups. There was a positive relationship between elastin and airway wall area measured by CT (n = 18–20, rho=0.544, p = 0.024), which also related to an increase in elastic fibres with a thickened lamellar morphological appearance. Mucin epithelial area and total collagen were not different between the four groups. Due to small numbers of suitable CT scans, it was not feasible to compare airway morphometry between the asthma groups. Conclusion: These findings identify a link between extent of elastin deposition and airway wall thickening in severe asthma