Fostering Coexistence Between People and Large Carnivores in Africa: Using a Theory of Change to Identify Pathways to Impact and Their Underlying Assumptions

Coexistence with large carnivores poses challenges to human well-being, livelihoods, development, resource management, and policy. Even where people and carnivores have historically coexisted, traditional patterns of behavior toward large carnivores may be disrupted by wider processes of economic, social, political, and climate change. Conservation interventions have typically focused on changing behaviors of those living alongside large carnivores to promote sustainable practices. While these interventions remain important, their success is inextricably linked to broader socio-political contexts, including natural resource governance and equitable distribution of conservation-linked costs and benefits. In this context we propose a Theory of Change to identify logical pathways of action through which coexistence with large carnivores can be enhanced. We focus on Africa’s dryland landscapes, known for their diverse guild of large carnivores that remain relatively widespread across the continent. We review the literature to understand coexistence and its challenges; explain our Theory of Change, including expected outcomes and pathways to impact; and discuss how our model could be implemented and operationalized. Our analysis draws on the experience of coauthors, who are scientists and practitioners, and on literature from conservation, political ecology, and anthropology to explore the challenges, local realities, and place-based conditions under which expected outcomes succeed or fail. Three pathways to impact were identified: (a) putting in place good governance harmonized across geographic scales; (b) addressing coexistence at the landscape level; and (c) reducing costsand increasing benefits of sharing a landscape with large carnivores. Coordinated conservation across the extensive, and potentially transboundary, landscapes needed by large carnivores requires harmonization of top-down approaches with bottom-up community-based conservation. We propose adaptive co-management approaches combined with processes for active community engagement and informed consent as useful dynamic mechanisms for navigating through this contested space, while enabling adaptation to climate change. Success depends on strengthening underlying enabling conditions, including governance, capacity, local empowerment, effective monitoring, and sustainable financial support. Implementing the Theory of Change requires ongoing monitoring and evaluation to inform adaptation and build confidence in the model. Overall, the model provides a flexible and practical framework that can be adapted to dynamic local socio-ecological contexts. large carnivore conservation, African semi-arid, community-based conservation, human wildlife conflict, community-based natural resource management, adaptive co-management, rangeland management, climate change adaptationpublishedVersio

Aging traits and sustainable trophy hunting of African lions

Trophy hunting plays a significant role in wildlife conservation in some contexts in various parts of the world. Yet excessive hunting is contributing to species declines, especially for large carnivores. Simulation models suggest that sustainable hunting of African lions may be achieved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared a cohort of offspring. We tested and expanded criteria for an age-based approach for sustainably regulating lion hunting. Using photos of 228 known-age males from ten sites across Africa, we measured change in ten phenotypic traits with age and found four age classes with distinct characteristics: 1-2.9 years, 3-4.9 years, 5-6.9 years, and ≥7 years. We tested the aging accuracy of professional hunters and inexperienced observers before and after training on aging. Before training, hunters accurately aged more lion photos (63%) than inexperienced observers (48%); after training, both groups improved (67-69%). Hunters overestimated 22% of lions <5 years as 5-6.9 years (unsustainable) but only 4% of lions <5 years as ≥7 years (sustainable). Due to the lower aging error for males ≥7 years, we recommend 7 years as a practical minimum age for hunting male lions. Results indicate that age-based hunting is feasible for sustainably managing threatened and economically significant species such as the lion, but must be guided by rigorous training, strict monitoring of compliance and error, and conservative quotas. Our study furthermore demonstrates methods for identifying traits to age individuals, information that is critical for estimating demographic parameters underlying management and conservation of age-structured species.http://www.elsevier.com/ locate/biocon2017-09-30hb2016Centre for Wildlife ManagementMammal Research InstituteZoology and Entomolog

From Attitudes to Actions: Predictors of Lion Killing by Maasai Warriors

<div><p>Despite legal protection, deliberate killing by local people is one of the major threats to the conservation of lions and other large carnivores in Africa. Addressing this problem poses particular challenges, mainly because it is difficult to uncover illicit behavior. This article examined two groups of Maasai warriors: individuals who have killed African lions (<i>Panthera leo</i>) and those who have not. We conducted interviews to explore the relationship between attitudes, intentions and known lion killing behavior. Factor analysis and logistic regression revealed that lion killing was mainly determined by: (a) general attitudes toward lions, (b) engagement in traditional customs, (c) lion killing intentions to defend property, and (d) socio-cultural killing intentions. Our results indicated that general attitudes toward lions were the strongest predictor of lion killing behavior. Influencing attitudes to encourage pro-conservation behavior may help reduce killing.</p></div

Probability of lion occurrence in identified lion population patches.

<p>Occurrence was calculated on 25 habitat patches in Kenya and Tanzania based on the incidence function model for A) male dispersal using maximum observed distance, without human density, B) male dispersal using maximum observed distance with human density, C) female dispersal using maximum observed distance without human density, D) female dispersal using maximum observed distance with human density model, E) male dispersal using average of observed distances, without human density, F) male dispersal using average of observed distances with human density, G) female dispersal using average of observed distances without human density, H) female dispersal using average of observed distances with human density model. In plotting the results, we used color to show the predicted incidence with warmer colors (redder) showing higher probability of incidence and yellow to white showing lower probability of incidence.</p

Map of study areas within the Amboseli-Tsavo ecosystem.

<p>Map of study areas within the Amboseli-Tsavo ecosystem.</p

Pattern matrix of social predictors of lion killing: Four-factor model with promax rotation (n = 123).

<p>Pattern matrix of social predictors of lion killing: Four-factor model with promax rotation (n = 123).</p

Items included in the factor analysis and the percentage of respondents who agreed/strongly agreed with each statement (n = 123).

<p>Items included in the factor analysis and the percentage of respondents who agreed/strongly agreed with each statement (n = 123).</p

A Metapopulation Approach to African Lion (<i>Panthera leo</i>) Conservation

<div><p>Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (<i>Panthera leo</i>) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts.</p></div