Health aid projects have both expanded and constrained the capacity of health facilities to deliver malaria services to under-five children in Malawi

Abstract Objective This article examines the potential pathways health aid may use to influence the availability of malaria services at a facility level and the utilisation of malaria services for children under five in Malawi. Methods This work is grounded in a health services research theoretical model and combines a subnational census of health services available at Malawi health facilities with individual-level data on health service utilisation and the Government of Malawi’s official source of data about health aid allocation at a child-level (n=2171). Logistic and multinomial logistic models were used to assess the relationship between health aid, malaria service readiness and malaria service utilisation. Models were adjusted for predisposing, enabling and need factors and accounted for the complex relationship using a mediation approach. Results The evidence presented suggests that health aid translates into increased diagnostic capacity, but not overall or training readiness. Results indicate that increasing aid projects in a region boost its facilities’ diagnostic readiness, increasing each facility’s relative likelihood of having a medium level of diagnostic readiness by 12% (relative risk (RR)=1.118; 95% CI 1.060 to 1.179) and its likelihood of having a high level of readiness by 23% (RR=1.230; 95% CI 1.161 to 1.303), but decreasing its readiness to provide training by 8% (RR=0.925; 95% CI 0.879 to 0.974). Conclusion The results of this research highlight the fact that health aid is working to increase malaria diagnostic capacity at a facility level, but that increasing facility readiness to implement the diagnostic tests has been neglected

Pulling the purse strings: Are there sectoral differences in political preferencing of Chinese aid to Africa?

China is emerging as an increasingly important player in the global development space, but may be less bound to compacts that aim to curb political preferencing and therefore may produce less yield in terms of impact toward Sustainable Development Goals. This research tests the hypothesis that the disproportionate aid allocation to the birth regions of the current African political leaders that applies to some sectors more than others

Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiological approaches to inform COVID-19 surveillance and control: a review protocol

Introduction Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection that cause coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have afflicted millions worldwide. Understanding the underlying spatial and temporal dynamics can help orient timely public health policies and optimize the targeting of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccines to the most vulnerable populations, particularly in resource-constrained settings. The review systematically summarises important methodological aspects and specificities of spatial approaches applied to COVID-19 in Africa. Methods Thematically selected keywords will be used to search for refereed studies in the following electronic databases PubMed, SCOPUS, MEDLINE, CINHAL, and Coronavirus Research Database from January 2020 to February 2022. Two independent reviewers will screen the title, abstracts, and full texts against predefined eligibility criteria based on the study’s characteristics, methodological relevance, and quality. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 procedures will be adhered to during the reporting process. Discussion COVID-19 modeling remains in its infancy, and research is needed to characterize uncertainty and validate various modeling regimes appropriately. It is anticipated that the review will aid spatial, spatio-temporal modeling decisions necessary for mitigating the current and future pandemics

Locational Error in the Estimation of Regional Discrete Choice Models Using Distance as a Regressor

In many microeconometric studies distance from a relevant point of interest (such as a hospital) is often used as a predictor in a regression framework. Confidentiality rules, often, require to geo-mask spatial micro-data, reducing the quality of such relevant information and distorting inference on models’ parameters. This paper extends previous literature, extending the classical results on the measurement error in a linear regression model to the case of hospital choice, showing that in a discrete choice model the higher is the distortion produced by the geo-masking, the higher will be the downward bias in absolute value toward zero of the coefficient associated to the distance in the models. Monte Carlo simulations allow us to provide evidence of theoretical hypothesis. Results can be used by the data producers to choose the optimal value of the parameters of geo-masking preserving confidentiality, not destroying the statistical information

The effectiveness of national-level containment and closure policies across income levels during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of 113 countries

Despite heterogeneity in income levels, countries implemented similarly strict containment and closure policies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. This research assesses the effectiveness of these containment and closure policies, which we defined as larger decreases in mobility and smaller COVID-19 case and death growth rates. Using daily data for 113 countries on mobility and cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts over the 130 days between February 15, 2020 and June 23, 2020, we examined changes in mobility, morbidity, and mortality growth rates across the World Bank’s income group classifications. Containment policies correlated with the largest declines in mobility in higher income countries. High-income countries also achieved lower COVID-19 case and death growth rates than low-income countries. This study finds better epidemiological outcomes of containment and closure policies for higher income countries than lower income countries. These findings urge policymakers to consider contextual differences, including levels of economic activity and the structure of the economy, when crafting policies in response to public health emergencies

Childhood health and the changing distribution of foreign aid: Evidence from Nigeria’s transition to lower-middle-income status

With sustained economic growth in many parts of the developing world, an increasing number of countries are transitioning away from the most subsidized development finance as they exceed income and other qualification requirements. Cross-country evidence suggests that Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors view the crossing over of the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) eligibility threshold to signal that a country needs less aid, with subsequent reductions in both IDA and other donors’ concessional funding. Within the health sector, it is particularly important to understand the implications of these status changes for children under five years of age since improving early childhood health is critical to fostering health and social and economic development. Therefore, we examine the implications of the IDA transition by measuring the extent t which World Bank commitments—including both IDA and IBRD—are directed to infant and child health needs in Nigeria. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models were used in a difference-indifferences (DID) strategy to compare World Bank IBRD/IDA lending before and after the crossover to regions with varying initial levels of under-five and infant need. We find that the infant need orientation of World Bank aid has increased post-crossover. Conversely, alignment of World Bank commitments to regional child needs appears to have diminished after Nigeria crosses the IDA threshold. However, these effects are statistically insignificant and therefore provides inconclusive evidence. This research addresses an important policy question because the transition away from concessional funding mechanisms will result in difficult tradeoffs in allocating limited health resources; without providing conclusive evidence that crossover results in changes in need-based allocation, it does offer an essential path for future research. These results are directly relevant to policy debates about what we know and do not know about aid in transition and health. This research’s value is especially important in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) era in understanding how donor exits could derail progress in health improvement

Methods for estimating economic benefits of surgical interventions in low income and middle-income countries: a scoping review

Objectives: Studies indicate that many types of surgical care are cost-effective compared with other health interventions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, global health investments to support these interventions remain limited. This study undertakes a scoping review of research on the economic impact of surgical interventions in LMICs to determine the methodologies used in measuring economic benefits. Design: The Arksey and O’Malley methodological framework for scoping reviews and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalyses Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist were used to review the data systematically. Online databases were used to identify papers published between 2005 and 2020, from which we selected 19 publications that quantitatively examined the economic benefits of surgical interventions in LMICs. Results: The majority of publications (79%) reported the use of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to assess economic impact. In comparison, 21% used other measures, such as the value of statistical life or cost-effectiveness ratios, or no measure at all. 31% were systematic or retrospective reviews of the literature on surgical procedures in LMICs, while 69% either directly assessed economic impact in a specific area or evaluated the need for surgical procedures in LMICs. All studies reviewed related to the economic impact of surgical procedures in LMICs, with most about pediatric surgical procedures or a specific surgical specialty. Conclusion: To make informed policy decisions regarding global health investments, the economic impact must be accurately measured. Researchers employ a range of techniques to quantify the economic benefit of surgeries in LMICs, which limits understanding of overall economic value. We conclude that the literature would benefit from a careful selection of methods, incorporating age and disability weights based on the Global Burden of Disease weights, and converting DALYs to dollars using the value of statistical life approach and the human capital approach, reporting both estimates

Taking the Health Aid Debate to the Subnational Level: The Impact and Allocation of Foreign Health Aid in Malawi

Objective Cross-national studies provide inconclusive results as to the effectiveness of foreign health aid. We highlight a novel application of using subnational data to evaluate aid impacts, using Malawi as a case study. Design We employ two rounds of nationally representative household surveys (2004/2005 and 2010/2011) and geo-referenced foreign aid data. We examine the determinants of Malawi\u27s traditional authorities receiving aid according to health, environmental risk, socioeconomic and political factors. We use two approaches to estimate the impact of aid on reducing malaria prevalence and increasing healthcare quality: difference-in-difference models, which include traditional authority and month-of-interview fixed effects and control for individual and household level time-varying factors, and entropy balancing, where models balance on health-related and socioeconomic baseline characteristics. General health aid and four specific health aid sectors are examined. Results Traditional authorities with greater proportions of individuals living in urban areas, more health facilities and greater proportions of those in major ethnic groups were more likely to receive aid. Difference-in-difference models show health infrastructure and parasitic disease control aid reduced malaria prevalence by 1.20 (95% CI −0.36 to 2.76) and 2.20 (95% CI 0.43 to 3.96) percentage points, respectively, and increased the likelihood of individuals reporting healthcare as more than adequate by 12.1 (95% CI 1.51 to 22.68) and 14.0 (95% CI 0.11 to 28.11) percentage points. Entropy balancing shows similar results. Conclusions Aid was targeted to areas with greater existing health infrastructure rather than areas most in need, but still effectively reduced malaria prevalence and enhanced self-reported healthcare quality

The impact of an insecticide treated bednet campaign on all-cause child mortality: A geospatial impact evaluation from the Democratic Republic of Congo

Objective To test the impact of a nationwide Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets [LLINs] distribution program in the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC] on all-cause under-five child mortality exploiting subnational variation in malaria endemicity and the timing in the scale-up of the program across provinces. Design Geospatial Impact Evaluation using a difference-in-differences approach. Setting Democratic Republic of the Congo. Participants 52,656 children sampled in the 2007 and 2013/2014 DRC Demographic and Health Surveys. Interventions The analysis provides plausibly causal estimates of both average treatment effects of the LLIN distribution campaign and geospatial heterogeneity in these effects based on malaria endemicity. It compares the under-five, all-cause mortality for children pre- and post-LLIN campaign relative to children in those areas that had not yet been exposed to the campaign using a difference-in-differences model and controlling for year- and province-fixed effects, and province-level trends in mortality. Results We find that the campaign led to a 41% decline [3.7 percentage points, 95% CI 1.3 to 6.0] in under-5 mortality risk among children living in rural areas with malaria ecology above the sample median. Results were robust to controlling for household assets and the presence of other health aid programs. No effect was detected in children living in areas with malaria ecology below the median. Conclusion The findings of this paper make important contributions to the evidence base for the effectiveness of large scale-national LLIN campaigns against malaria. We found that the program was effective in areas of the DRC with the highest underlying risk of malaria. Targeting bednets to areas with greatest underlying risk for malaria may help to increase the efficiency of increasingly limited malaria resources but should be balanced against other malaria control concerns