Mississippi Delta subsidence primarily caused by compaction of Holocene strata

Coastal subsidence causes sea-level rise, shoreline erosion and wetland loss, which poses a threat to coastal populations. This is especially evident in the Mississippi Delta in the southern United States, which was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The loss of protective wetlands is considered a critical factor in the extensive flood damage. The causes of subsidence in coastal Louisiana, attributed to factors as diverse as shallow compaction and deep crustal processes, remain controversial. Current estimates of subsidence rates vary by several orders of magnitude. Here, we use a series of radiocarbon-dated sediment cores from the Mississippi Delta to analyse late Holocene deposits and assess compaction rates. We find that millennial-scale compaction rates primarily associated with peat can reach 5mm per year, values that exceed recent model predictions. Locally and on timescales of decades to centuries, rates are likely to be 10 mm or more per year. We conclude that compaction of Holocene strata contributes significantly to the exceptionally high rates of relative sea-level rise and coastal wetland loss in the Mississippi Delta, and is likely to cause subsidence in other organic-rich and often densely populated coastal plains

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assesment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors