Individual, communal and institutional responses to climate change by low-income households in Khulna, Bangladesh

The relationship between “coping” and “resilience” increasingly features in academic, policy and practical discussions on adaptation to climate change in urban areas. This paper examines this relationship in the context of households in “extreme poverty” in the city of Khulna, Bangladesh. It draws on a quantitative data set based on 550 household interviews in low-income and informal settlements that identified the extent of the underlying drivers of vulnerability in this setting, including very low income, inadequate shelter, poor nutritional status and limited physical assets. A series of focus groups were used to explore the ways in which physical hazards have interacted with this underlying vulnerability, as a means to understand the potential impacts of climate change on this particular group of urban residents. These outcomes include frequent water-logging, the destruction of houses and disruption to the provision of basic services. The main focus of the paper is on describing the practices of low-income urban residents in responding to climate-related shocks and stresses, placing these in a particular political context, and drawing lessons for urban policies in Bangladesh and elsewhere. A wide range of specific adaptation-related activities can be identified, which can be grouped into three main categories – individual, communal and institutional. The paper examines the extent to which institutional actions are merely “coping” – or whether they create the conditions in which individuals and households can strengthen their own long-term resilience. Similarly, it examines the extent to which individual and communal responses are merely “coping” – or whether they have the potential to generate broader political change that strengthens the position of marginalized groups in the city

Reconfiguring urban adaptation finance

There is an urgent need to review and improve the means for funding adaptation to climate change in urban areas. This paper examines international, national and municipal mechanisms for financing adaptation, and reveals the systemic barriers that prevent money being channelled into the hands of low-income and highly vulnerable urban residents in low- and middle-income countries, and hinder effective urban adaptation. At the same time, a number of highly organised, pro-poor, locally managed funds are being pioneered across a number of cities in low- and middle-income countries. Bottom-up planning and decision-making is emerging as a potential complement to the ineffective top-down financing models, and offers a viable approach to bridge the gap between low-income urban residents and the agencies that claim to support them

The usability of climate information in sub-national planning in India, Kenya and Uganda: the role of social learning and intermediary organisations

Research on using climate information has often focused on the interaction between users and producers and the technical fit of information for real decision-making. However, due to resource and capacity constraints within both user and producer communities, this approach will not always be feasible or indeed necessary depending on the decisions at hand. These contexts have been relatively under-explored by scholars, and this paper provides an original empirical contribution using three case studies of sub-national governments in India, Kenya and Uganda. In the paper, we analyse how social learning supports changing the usability of climate information and the role of intermediary organisations in these processes. Firstly, the paper shows that intermediaries often choose to build the commitment to project aims rather than using climate information as an entry point to working on climate change, and this allows them to instigate challenging learning processes. Secondly, there are barriers to iterative processes and critical reflection with government stakeholders but these processes can gain traction when built into institutional practices such as formal M&E processes. Lastly, social learning can broaden the framing of climate change from a single sector issue to a multi-sectoral one. We conclude by arguing that bringing together scholarship on social learning with that on the usability of climate information can deepen understanding of the dynamic context in which the information becomes usable. The evidence from the case studies shows that learning processes can alter this context across scales

Green Infrastructure in Informal Settlements through a Multiple Level Perspective

The aim of this paper is to highlight limits in the current conceptualisation and implementation of urban Green Infrastructure (GI), particularly in informal settlements. We propose a Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) that helps analyse and identify opportunities to overcome such limits. The article starts by discussing the concept of GI and proposes its definition through the principles of multifunctionality, interlinkages and exchange. Recognising current gaps in implementation in the context of informal settlements, we argue for the better understanding of the range of socio-political conditions which enable or impede GI practices. To reflect on these gaps, the article uses MLP to explore persisting socio-ecological-infrastructural problems in water management, which could be perpetuated through current GI practices. MLP is used as a heuristic framework to analyse influencing factors that exist at multiple interconnected societal and bio-physical levels. The framework is applied to the city of São Paulo in Brazil where traditional water management has resulted in tensions between social and ecological systems between the regime (which encompasses institutional structures) and the niche (where innovations emerge, for example through grassroots movements). Examples of community initiatives are used that demonstrate a disconnection between top-down structures and everyday practices. We conclude that if GI presents the potential to support a transition towards water management that benefits both social and ecological systems, further characterisation of the concept is required

Uncertain pasts and risk-sensitive futures in sub-Saharan urban transformation

This chapter explores the status and the scope for transition of risk- sensitive and transformative urban development in diverse cities of sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is important because of its large proportions of urban populations with high vulnerability and growing exposure to risks. High rates of urban growth pose increasing risks as we go into the future, yet there is also opportunity to reduce risk through integrating risk management into development. However, this opportunity space is often constrained by limited capacities to plan and manage the rapid urbanisation process, particularly in informal settlements. Limited capacities to prevent processes of risk accumulation pose threats to poverty reduction and sustainable development. In this context, there is an increasingly urgent need for squarely recognising and addressing the underlying vulnerabilities of urban populations and their root causes. Transitioning towards such sustainable urban pathways will require the strengthening of capacities and accountability of city authorities and broader governance systems, both formal and informal

A spectrum of methods for a spectrum of risk: Generating evidence to understand and reduce urban risk in sub-Saharan Africa

Many African towns and cities face a range of hazards, which can best be described as representing a “spectrum of risk” of events that can cause death, illness or injury, and impoverishment. Yet despite the growing numbers of people living in African urban centres, the extent and relative severity of these different risks is poorly understood. This paper provides a rationale for using a spectrum of methods to address this spectrum of risk, and demonstrates the utility of mixed‐methods approaches in planning for resilience. It describes activities undertaken in a wide‐ranging multi‐country programme of research, which use multiple approaches to gather empirical data on risk, in order to build a stronger evidence base and provide a more solid base for planning and investment. It concludes that methods need to be chosen in regard to social, political economic, biophysical and hydrogeological context, while also recognising the different levels of complexity and institutional capacity in different urban centres. The paper concludes that as well as the importance of taking individual contexts into account, there are underlying methodological principles – based on multidisciplinary expertise and multi‐faceted and collaborative research endeavours – that can inform a range of related approaches to understanding urban risk in sub‐Saharan Africa and break the cycle of risk accumulation

Community-Based Climate Change Adaptation Action Plans to Support Climate-Resilient Development in the Eastern African Highlands

Smallholder farmers in the Eastern African Highlands depend on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate adaptation and sustainable development goals must be targeted in an integrated way to better match farmers’ realities and address local priorities and vulnerabilities in these areas. To support climate-resilient development in the Eastern African Highlands, 224 local stakeholders were engaged in the development of community-based climate change adaptation action plans for the Jimma Highlands in Ethiopia, Taita Hills in Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. Participatory methods, high-resolution climate projections and the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP’s) guidelines were used in the design of these climate action plans with specific objectives to: 1) engage stakeholders to increase understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation options and their potential trade-offs, 2) build their capacities to design climate change adaptation projects, 3) empower stakeholders to identify existing vulnerabilities and enhance climate resilience and 4) strengthen networks to facilitate information access and sharing. Increased risk of water stress and reduction of agricultural productivity were the most frequently identified climate-change-induced problems in the three areas. The developed action plans target the underlying causes of these problems and describe sector-specific responses, activities, critical barriers and opportunities and support the National Adaptation Programmes of Action.Peer reviewe

A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km2 and 12,568,000 km2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km2 more likely

Testing the efficacy of voluntary urban greenhouse gas emissions inventories

Drawing from an original dataset of urban metropolitan carbon footprints, we explore the correlations between national level climate change commitments and subnational level inventories. We ask: Does voluntary reporting allow a city to perform better than national average? Does ambitiousness in commitment have an impact on performance in footprint reduction? Does having long-term commitments affect performance in footprint reduction? Do binding national level commitments (such as those under the Kyoto Protocol) affect performance at the city level in terms of footprint reduction? To provide answers, we synthesize data from the largest repository of voluntary sub-national commitments and actions towards footprint reduction and greenhouse gas inventories from around the world, the Carbonn platform. More than 500 cities report at least one action, commitment or inventory to this database. We find, using a subset of this database, perhaps counter intuitively that cities with more ambitious commitments do not necessarily have steeper reductions in emissions. Our data also suggest that having long-term self-reported goals does not make the cities perform better in terms of footprint reduction. This appears to be true for both government and community commitments reported. Lastly, and positively, our data did reveal a statistically significant effect for cities belonging to countries that had committed to the Kyoto Protocol, suggesting the necessity of binding national (and supranational) climate targets

Towards risk-sensitive and transformative urban development in sub Saharan Africa

Risk-sensitive urban development is required to reduce accumulated risk and to better consider risk when planning new developments. To deliver a sustainable city for all requires a more frank and comprehensive focus on procedure: On who makes decisions, under which frameworks, based upon what kind of data or knowledge, and with what degree and direction of accountability? Acting on these procedural questions is the promise of transformative urban development. This paper explores the status of risk sensitive and transformative urban development and the scope for transition towards these components of sustainability in urban sub-Saharan Africa through the lens of diverse city cases: Karonga (Malawi), Ibadan (Nigeria), Niamey (Niger) and Nairobi (Kenya). The paper draws from a 3-year research and capacity building programme called Urban Africa: Risk Knowledge that aims to address gaps in data, understandings and capacity to break cycles of risk accumulation. A common analytical framework is presented to help identify blockages and opportunities for transition towards a risk-sensitive and transformative urban development. This framework is then illustrated through each city in turn and a concluding discussion reflects on city observations to draw out recommendations for city level and wider action and research partnerships