The Concept of a CLIOS Analysis Illustrated by the Mexico City Case

The term CLIOS (Complex, Large-scale, Integrated, Open Systems) was conceived as way to capture the salient characteristics of a class of systems that are of growing interest to researchers, decisionmakers, policy makers and stakeholders. These systems range from an air traffic control system to the global climate system, and from Boston’s Big Dig to the eBay online trading system. We start by defining the primary characteristics of CLIOS. First, a system is complex when it is composed of a group of interrelated units (component and subsystems), for which the degree and nature of the relationships is imperfectly known – with varying directionality, magnitude and time-scales of interactions among the various subsystems. Second, CLIOS have impacts that are large in magnitude, and often long-lived and of large-scale geographical extent. Third, subsystems within CLIOS are integrated, closely coupled through feedback loops. Finally, by open we mean that CLIOS explicitly include social, political and economic aspects (Sussman, 2000a). Finally, with CLIOS we are as concerned with the complexity of the organizational and institutional parts of the systems as we are with the physical system. In fact, understanding the organizational and institutional structure and its interaction with the physical structure is one of the key potential values of a CLIOS analysis

A Systems Framework for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of ITS: Application to Mexico City

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)—the application of communications and information technology to surface transportation systems—has the potential to improve transportation along several dimensions, from safety to emissions reductions to travel time and reliability. ITS has become a worldwide technology, and many cities in Latin America are currently deploying ITS, from individual technologies to entire ITS Architectures. While improving mobility is at the core of any ITS deployment, in metropolitan areas from Mexico City to Sao Paulo, air quality concerns are such that ignoring possible air quality impacts of ITS technologies represents either a failure to leverage ITS for air quality improvements, or even a risk of running counter to air quality management efforts. While there is a growing number of studies evaluating the air quality benefits of ITS, there are important limitations on the extent to which the results of these studies can be used to support planning of ITS in cities in Latin America. First, the challenges involved in modeling ITS air quality benefits mean that they typically focus on only one or two ITS technologies at a time. Second, air quality and mobility conditions vary greatly across cities, meaning that air quality outcomes will also vary widely. Finally, from a planning standpoint, a more system-wide and qualitative framework is needed to generate the kind of dialogue needed between a diverse number of groups—environmental, transportation, public works, public security, and transport operators—to decide how ITS can meet a metropolitan area needs. In order to address these issues, I develop a systems framework that can encompass a number of ITS technologies and performance measures. Within this systems framework, I look specifically at air quality. Rather than focusing on particular modeling tools, I break down air quality impacts into eight mechanisms that can lead to decreases or increases in mobile source emissions. I will also return briefly to the literature on ITS environmental benefits, to review which mechanisms are included as variables. Finally, I will consider the case of Mexico City, and the interactions between current ITS deployments and air quality

Toward a New Technology and Policy Program (TPP) Curriculum

The mission of the MIT Technology and Policy Program (TPP) is: “Provide an integrative education to scientists and engineers who wish to lead in the development and implementation of responsible strategies and policies for exploitation of technology for the benefit of their communities” (Hastings, 2000). Embedded in the TPP mission statement are several educational requirements: (1) a comprehensive and diverse set of solid analytical skills needed to develop and assess strategies and policies, (2) the flexibility to manage the conflicting interests and values that are present at all stages of the policy process, and (3) the ability to provide leadership at each stage in the policy process. With these concepts in mind, the TPP Curriculum Development Committee will work to place TPP at the forefront of educating the “leaders (researchers and practitioners) of the fields of technology and policy studies” (Hastings, 2000)

Seabirds as regional biomonitors of legacy toxicants on an urbanized coastline

Seabirds are often cited as sentinels of the marine environment, but are rarely used in traditional ocean and coastal contaminant monitoring. Four classes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs, n=68) and three trace elements (mercury, selenium, and arsenic) were measured in the eggs of California least terns (Sterna antillarum browni), caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus), and western gulls (Larus occidentalis) that nest in the Southern California Bight. Building on a periodic five year regional monitoring program, we measured contaminant exposure and assessed the utility of seabirds as regional contaminant biomonitors. We found that the eggs of larger,more piscivorous species generally had the highest concentrations of POPs and trace elements while California least terns had the lowest concentrations, except for mercury which was higher in least terns. As expected, DDT concentrations were elevated near the Palos Verdes Superfund site. However, we also detected a previously unknown latitudinal pattern in PBDE concentrations in least terns. POP congener profiles also confirmed differences in contamination in urban least tern colonies closest to urban centers. Though toxicants were at detectable levels across species and sites, concentrations were below those known to cause adverse effects in avian taxa and are steady or declining compared to previous studies in this region. Our results suggest that regional seabird monitoring can inform site-specific remediation and support management and protection of regionally-threatened wildlife and coastal systems. Integration of seabird contaminant data with traditional sediment, water, bivalve and fish monitoring is needed to further our understanding of exposure pathways and food web contaminant transfer

An integrated modeling approach

PRIFPRI3; C Improving markets and trade; CRP2; PIM 3.1 Advisory servicesMTID; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Energy, agriculture, and the farmer

Non-PRIFPRI5EPT

Scenarios for Low Carbon and Low Water Electric Power Plant Operations: Implications for Upstream Water Use

Electric sector water use, in particular for thermoelectric operations, is a critical component of the water-energy nexus. On a life cycle basis per unit of electricity generated, operational (e.g., cooling system) water use is substantially higher than water demands for the fuel cycle (e.g., natural gas and coal) and power plant manufacturing (e.g., equipment and construction). However, could shifting toward low carbon and low water electric power operations create trade-offs across the electricity life cycle? We compare business-as-usual with scenarios of carbon reductions and water constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model. Our scenarios show that, for water withdrawals, the trade-offs are minimal: operational water use accounts for over 95% of life cycle withdrawals. For water consumption, however, this analysis identifies potential trade-offs under some scenarios. Nationally, water use for the fuel cycle and power plant manufacturing can reach up to 26% of the total life cycle consumption. In the western United States, nonoperational consumption can even exceed operational demands. In particular, water use for biomass feedstock irrigation and manufacturing/construction of solar power facilities could increase with high deployment. As the United States moves toward lower carbon electric power operations, consideration of shifting water demands can help avoid unintended consequences