The Concept of a CLIOS Analysis Illustrated by the Mexico City Case

The term CLIOS (Complex, Large-scale, Integrated, Open Systems) was conceived as way to capture the salient characteristics of a class of systems that are of growing interest to researchers, decisionmakers, policy makers and stakeholders. These systems range from an air traffic control system to the global climate system, and from Boston’s Big Dig to the eBay online trading system. We start by defining the primary characteristics of CLIOS. First, a system is complex when it is composed of a group of interrelated units (component and subsystems), for which the degree and nature of the relationships is imperfectly known – with varying directionality, magnitude and time-scales of interactions among the various subsystems. Second, CLIOS have impacts that are large in magnitude, and often long-lived and of large-scale geographical extent. Third, subsystems within CLIOS are integrated, closely coupled through feedback loops. Finally, by open we mean that CLIOS explicitly include social, political and economic aspects (Sussman, 2000a). Finally, with CLIOS we are as concerned with the complexity of the organizational and institutional parts of the systems as we are with the physical system. In fact, understanding the organizational and institutional structure and its interaction with the physical structure is one of the key potential values of a CLIOS analysis

A Systems Framework for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of ITS: Application to Mexico City

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)—the application of communications and information technology to surface transportation systems—has the potential to improve transportation along several dimensions, from safety to emissions reductions to travel time and reliability. ITS has become a worldwide technology, and many cities in Latin America are currently deploying ITS, from individual technologies to entire ITS Architectures. While improving mobility is at the core of any ITS deployment, in metropolitan areas from Mexico City to Sao Paulo, air quality concerns are such that ignoring possible air quality impacts of ITS technologies represents either a failure to leverage ITS for air quality improvements, or even a risk of running counter to air quality management efforts. While there is a growing number of studies evaluating the air quality benefits of ITS, there are important limitations on the extent to which the results of these studies can be used to support planning of ITS in cities in Latin America. First, the challenges involved in modeling ITS air quality benefits mean that they typically focus on only one or two ITS technologies at a time. Second, air quality and mobility conditions vary greatly across cities, meaning that air quality outcomes will also vary widely. Finally, from a planning standpoint, a more system-wide and qualitative framework is needed to generate the kind of dialogue needed between a diverse number of groups—environmental, transportation, public works, public security, and transport operators—to decide how ITS can meet a metropolitan area needs. In order to address these issues, I develop a systems framework that can encompass a number of ITS technologies and performance measures. Within this systems framework, I look specifically at air quality. Rather than focusing on particular modeling tools, I break down air quality impacts into eight mechanisms that can lead to decreases or increases in mobile source emissions. I will also return briefly to the literature on ITS environmental benefits, to review which mechanisms are included as variables. Finally, I will consider the case of Mexico City, and the interactions between current ITS deployments and air quality

Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer

The tighter linkages between energy and crop markets due to recent climate and energy legislation in the US have large potential environmental impacts beyond carbon sequestration and climate mitigation. These range from effects on water quality and quantity, soil erosion, habitat and biodiversity preservation. These impacts are very location and management-decision specific, as they are the product of atomistic decisions and depend on soil and landscape specific variables. In order to fully understand the effects of biomass markets, the new and stronger linkages and feedback effects between national- and global-scale energy and commodity markets must be properly understood and identified using an integrated perspective. We discuss the various interactions between agricultural and energy markets and their environmental impacts for existing biomass crops and detail how these interactions may be strengthened with the emergence of corn stover as a second generation biofuel feedstock. The tighter coupling of land use and management and energy systems needs to be accounted for to ensure that we have accurate indicators of the sustainability of biomass as an energy resource

Toward a New Technology and Policy Program (TPP) Curriculum

The mission of the MIT Technology and Policy Program (TPP) is: “Provide an integrative education to scientists and engineers who wish to lead in the development and implementation of responsible strategies and policies for exploitation of technology for the benefit of their communities” (Hastings, 2000). Embedded in the TPP mission statement are several educational requirements: (1) a comprehensive and diverse set of solid analytical skills needed to develop and assess strategies and policies, (2) the flexibility to manage the conflicting interests and values that are present at all stages of the policy process, and (3) the ability to provide leadership at each stage in the policy process. With these concepts in mind, the TPP Curriculum Development Committee will work to place TPP at the forefront of educating the “leaders (researchers and practitioners) of the fields of technology and policy studies” (Hastings, 2000)

A review of water use in the U.S. electric power sector: insights from systems-level perspectives

Thermoelectric power production comprised 41% of total freshwater withdrawals in the U.S., surpassing even agriculture. This review highlights scenarios of the electric sector’s future demands for water, including scenarios that limit both CO2 and water availability. A number of studies show withdrawals decreasing with retirement of existing electricity generating units. Consumption, the evaporative losses, also decreases in many scenarios. However, climate mitigation scenarios relying heavily on nuclear and carbon capture technologies may induce increases in water consumption. These increases in consumption represent a potential tradeoff between climate mitigation and adaptation of the electric sector to climate-related changes in water resources. It also points to the need for both analyses and technological solutions from the chemical engineering community

Air quality and ITS : understanding IIDAPT

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (p. 454-472).During the past two decades, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have provided transportation organizations with increasingly advanced tools both to operate and manage systems in real-time. At the same time, federal legislation has been tightening the linkages between state and local transportation investments and metropolitan air quality goals. In this context, ITS seems to represent a case of the potential synergies - or so-called "win-win" outcomes - that could be realized for the dual policy goals of air quality and mobility. If the various public sector organizations responsible for air quality and transportation could cooperate in deploying, assessing and further adapting these new technologies to take advantage of these synergies, they could achieve a "sustainable use" of ITS. However, looking beyond ITS and air quality, these issues point to broader questions of how to appropriately manage technology and its impacts on society, specifically those technologies deployed by the public sector. In particular, how does the public sector innovate and deploy technologies in ways that maximize the benefits, and minimize or avoid the negative impacts? In order to examine this phenomenon, this thesis takes the example of ITS and air quality to develop and test a broader framework of Integrated Innovation, Deployment and Adaptation of Public Technologies (IIDAPT).(cont.) In this thesis, we define and articulate a framework for IIDAPT, and identify testable conditions that make IIDAPT either more or less likely to occur. We identify seven conditions - based in the literature of political science, organizational theory, and public administration - that should, in theory, influence the ability of public agencies to achieve synergies for multiple policy goals through technology deployment. Having developed a theoretical framework for the conditions that influence IIDAPT, we then test those conditions using five U.S. cities - Los Angeles, Houston, Boston, Orlando, and Tulsa - as case studies in ITS and air quality. We then extend the framework to a non-US case, Mexico City, in order to further test the IIDAPT framework and to identify possible changes at the federal and local level to better align ITS deployments with both mobility and air quality goals in Mexico City. This research explains some interesting outcomes in terms of failures by public sector agencies to take advantage of new, lower cost ITS technologies that can provide multiple benefits for both mobility and air quality. We find that "cheap" solutions, such as ITS rather than conventional infrastructure, are not always in an agency's interests, as defined by the agency.(cont.) Specifically, we found that lower-cost innovations may compete with an agency's or elected official's priorities for certain categories of investment, by undermining the ability to build up the case for that investment. The overarching conclusion, is that the possibilities for synergies (or "win-win" outcomes) must be defined, not according to the stated policy objectives or mission of the public sector agencies, but according to the underlying interests and agendas of agencies, which may, or may not align with the public interest. We also found that new information on the impacts of new ITS technologies on air quality does not generally lead to adaptation in the application of those technologies either to reduce negative impacts or to provide additional benefits for air quality. Even where evaluations of air quality impacts were required, those assessments were not well integrated into the process of technology deployment and later adaptation in the use of those technologies. Indeed, new information that can change the perception of possible mutual benefits is not always welcomed by agencies, and assessment methodologies will tend to reflect existing agency preferences. However, there were reasons for optimism.(cont.) We found that in response to an increasingly "severe" air quality problem (as defined by federal regulations), local agencies are in fact experimenting with the use of ITS to achieve air quality benefits as well as mobility benefits. Furthermore, by creating the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) program, a dedicated federal funding source for non-traditional transportation investments (such as ITS) with air quality benefits, agencies were provided with the resources and additional motivation to seek out and deploy ITS technologies with air quality benefits. To conclude this work, we highlight possible areas of future theory development for IIDAPT, and point to additional technology and policy domains where the IIDAPT framework can be applied and tested.by Rebecca Susanne Dodder.Ph.D

Seabirds as regional biomonitors of legacy toxicants on an urbanized coastline

Seabirds are often cited as sentinels of the marine environment, but are rarely used in traditional ocean and coastal contaminant monitoring. Four classes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs, n=68) and three trace elements (mercury, selenium, and arsenic) were measured in the eggs of California least terns (Sterna antillarum browni), caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus), and western gulls (Larus occidentalis) that nest in the Southern California Bight. Building on a periodic five year regional monitoring program, we measured contaminant exposure and assessed the utility of seabirds as regional contaminant biomonitors. We found that the eggs of larger,more piscivorous species generally had the highest concentrations of POPs and trace elements while California least terns had the lowest concentrations, except for mercury which was higher in least terns. As expected, DDT concentrations were elevated near the Palos Verdes Superfund site. However, we also detected a previously unknown latitudinal pattern in PBDE concentrations in least terns. POP congener profiles also confirmed differences in contamination in urban least tern colonies closest to urban centers. Though toxicants were at detectable levels across species and sites, concentrations were below those known to cause adverse effects in avian taxa and are steady or declining compared to previous studies in this region. Our results suggest that regional seabird monitoring can inform site-specific remediation and support management and protection of regionally-threatened wildlife and coastal systems. Integration of seabird contaminant data with traditional sediment, water, bivalve and fish monitoring is needed to further our understanding of exposure pathways and food web contaminant transfer

An integrated modeling approach

PRIFPRI3; C Improving markets and trade; CRP2; PIM 3.1 Advisory servicesMTID; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM