The Gap in Standards for Special Libraries

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Econometric and time series models for predicting the futures market basis for Tennessee feeder cattle

The purpose of this study was to develop forecasting models capable of predicting basis for Tennessee feeder cattle six months in advance. Both econometric and time series models were developed, estimated and tested out-of-sample. The econometric model was estimated using five continuous inde-pendent variables. These were: transfer cost, futures price level, feeder cattle supply, stage of the cattle cycle and local grazing conditions. Dummy variables were used to represent the futures contract change to a cash settlement system and to represent the seasonality of feeder cattle production and marketing. The first type of time series model used was a univariate ARIMA model. Two ARIMA model specifications were used in the study, both of which accounted for seasonal components in the autoregressive scheme. Transfer function models were the second type of time series models used. Two forms of transfer function models were used with each including the futures contract change dummy variable in addition to seasonal autoregressive components. The second transfer function also used a transportation cost index as an exogenous variable. The five models were used to predict values for 12 10-day market-ing periods out-of-sample. These forecasts were compared to actual values using Theil\u27s U2 coefficient, root mean square error and graphics. Four models were able to predict better than a naive no-price-change model as indicated by coefficients less than one. Values for the U2 coefficients ranged from 0.28 to 1.12 and the cor-responding RMSE ranged from $0.87 to$3.49. The transfer function model with the dummy variable to represent the futures contract change to cash settlement and the transportation cost index was the superior model based on the above criteria. The econometric model was second best and the transfer function model with only the cash settlement dummy variable ranked third. The pure time series models ranked fourth and fifth, consistently overestimating the Tennessee feeder cattle basis

NSF management support for aid-funded development of Egyptian scientific and technical information services

Issued as Monthly progress reports no. [1-11], Technical memorandum report, Reprint, Letter reports no. [1-5], and Technical reports no. [1-9], Project no. G-36-644 (subproject is A-51-604/Dodd/Library

Microfabrication of photonic devices for mid-infrared optical applications

This thesis details research into the microfabrication of photonic devices for mid-infrared optical applications using the technique of ultrafast laser inscription. A diverse range of devices and materials is explored, including the first fabrication and development of an ultrafast laser inscribed mid-infrared waveguide laser source in thulium-doped sesquioxide ceramic gain media. The source produced 81 mW of output power at 1942 nm with a maximum slope efficiency of 9.5% demonstrating progress towards compact, low-threshold and efficient ultrafast laser written waveguide laser sources near 2 μm with the potential for high pulse repetition rate and ultrashort pulse operation. Also shown is the first demonstration of ultrafast laser inscription enabled selective chemical etching of chalcogenide glass. Investigations into the etching of modified regions in gallium lanthanum sulphide glass showed they could be etched at a rate ~13.3 times greater than the un-modified bulk. This result was explored further as a potential route to the production of optofluidic sensors for gas, liquid chemical or biomedical samples. The first demonstration and characterisation of ultrafast laser written waveguides in the chalcogenide glass GASIR-1 is also described. The waveguides were employed for chip scale supercontinuum generation producing the broadest and deepest Infrared supercontinuum from an ultrafast laser inscribed waveguide to-date, spanning ~4 μm from 2.5 to 6.5 μm, which has applications in remote sensing. Finally, the design, build and commissioning of an advanced laser processing setup suitable for ultrafast laser inscription is also detailed

Electrical Energy Conversion Techniques for the Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

The characteristics of the Vertical Axis Wind Turbine make it possible to use generating techniques not suitable for Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines. Methods for converting mechanical energy into electrical energy are presented and discussed for vertical turbines of the 250 KW to 2500 KW size. This paper will also look at the present status of Vertical Axis Wind Turbine research in the United States