Performance evaluation of a global CMIP6 single forcing, multi wave model ensemble of wave climate simulations

A performance evaluation is conducted for a state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-derived ensemble of global wave climate simulations. A single-model (forcing), single-scenario approach is considered to build the ensemble, where the differentiating factor between each member is the wave model or physics parameterization used to simulate waves. The 7-member ensemble is evaluated for the 1995-2014 historical period, highlighting the impact of the multiple source terms on its robustness. The ensemble’s ability to accurately represent the present wave climate is assessed through an extensive comparison with long-term ERA5 reanalysis and in-situ observational data. Relevant aspects such as the depiction of extremes and natural wave climate variability are analyzed, and inter-member uncertainties are quantified. Overall, the results indicate that the ensemble is able to accurately simulate the global wave climate, regarding the significant wave height (), mean and peak wave periods ( and , respectively) and mean wave direction (). However, we show that using multiple wave models and parameterizations should be cautiously considered when building ensembles, even under the same forcing conditions. Model-parameterization-induced ensemble spreads during the historical period are found to be high, compromising the robustness of projected changes in wave parameters towards the end of the 21 century across several areas of the global ocean

On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections

This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties

Wave modeling uncertainty in global wave climate projections: assessment and quantification

Ocean wind waves are projected to changeover the twenty-first century under a warming climate. The standard approach to conduct these studies is based on wave climate projections. These products represent future wave climates, for different scenarios, developed using forcing drivers from global climate models (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). Projected changes in wave climate are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty (see Figure): aleatoric uncertainty, socio-economic scenario uncertainty, uncertainty related to GCMs and the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave modeling

bis-Nitrile and bis-Dialkylcyanamide Platinum(II) Complexes as Efficient Catalysts for Hydrosilylation Cross-Linking of Siloxane Polymers

cis- and trans-Isomers of the platinum(II) nitrile complexes [PtCl2(NCR)2] (R = NMe2, N(C5H10), Ph, CH2Ph) were examined as catalysts for hydrosilylation cross-linking of vinyl-terminated polydimethylsiloxane and trimethylsilyl-terminated poly(dimethylsiloxane-co-ethylhydrosiloxane) producing high quality silicone rubbers. Among the tested platinum species the cis-complexes are much more active catalysts than their trans-congeners and for all studied platinum complexes cis-[PtCl2(NCCH2Ph)2] exhibits the best catalytic activity (room temperature, c = 1.0 10 4 mol/L, pot-life 60 min, curing 6 h). Although cis-[PtCl2(NCCH2Ph)2] is less active than the widely used Karstedt’s catalyst, its application for the cross-linking can be performed not only at room temperature (c = 1.0 10 4 mol/L), but also, more efficiently, at 80 C (c = 1.0 10 4–1.0 10 5 mol/L) and it prevents adherence of the formed silicone rubbers to equipment. The usage of the cis- and trans-[PtCl2(NCR)2] complexes as the hydrosilylation catalysts do not require any inhibitors and, moreover, the complexes and their mixtures with vinyl- and trimethylsilyl terminated polysiloxanes are shelf-stable in air. Tested catalysts do not form colloid platinum particles after the cross-linking.This project was supported by Federal Target Program (grant 14.576.21.0028). Andrey V. Vlasov and Vadim Yu. Kukushkin are much obliged to Saint Petersburg State University for a postdoctoral fellowship (12.50.1188.2014) and research grant (12.38.225.2014), correspondingly. The authors also express their gratitude to the Center of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry (Saint Petersburg State University) for physicochemical measurements

Analytical “Bake-Off” of Whole Genome Sequencing Quality for the Genome Russia Project Using a Small Cohort for Autoimmune Hepatitis

A comparative analysis of whole genome sequencing (WGS) and genotype calling was initiated for ten human genome samples sequenced by St. Petersburg State University Peterhof Sequencing Center and by three commercial sequencing centers outside of Russia. The sequence quality, efficiency of DNA variant and genotype calling were compared with each other and with DNA microarrays for each of ten study subjects. We assessed calling of SNPs, indels, copy number variation, and the speed of WGS throughput promised. Twenty separate QC analyses showed high similarities among the sequence quality and called genotypes. The ten genomes tested by the centers included eight American patients afflicted with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), plus one case’s unaffected parents, in a prelude to discovering genetic influences in this rare disease of unknown etiology. The detailed internal replication and parallel analyses allowed the observation of two of eight AIH cases carrying a rare allele genotype for a previously described AIH-associated gene (FTCD), plus multiple occurrences of known HLA-DRB1 alleles associated with AIH (HLA-DRB1-03:01:01, 13:01:01 and 7:01:01). We also list putative SNVs in other genes as suggestive in AIH influence