Disintegration and Coordination of Forecast Parameters of Socio-Economic Development and the Fuel and Energy Balance of the Region

The scope of strategic planning documents for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the procedure for their development and coordination on interregional and federal levels, the requirements for their content and conjunction with other long- and medium-term territorial programs are now approved by statute. The article presents the theoretical and methodological problems of detailing and interrelation of the region’s socio-economic development scenarios with the forecast parameters of regional energy consumption based on the fuel and energy balance under conditions of incomplete retrospective information. This situation is typical of the market environment, and some restrictions on access to statistical data are irremovable. This fact reduces the opportunity to apply formal and rigorous evaluation methods and the objectivity level of not only the forecast indicators, but also of the current ones. The coordination of these documents is methodologically and practically relevant due to the relative isolation of their formation process, a different level of detailing of the forecast scenarios, and a lack of the required information. The author uses the energy saving and energy efficiency measurement technique that is based on the structural comparison of performance, current and estimated fuel and energy balances, consistent with the region’s socio-economic development forecast. The author is also concerned with the development of this technique for the purpose of a comparative regional energy consumption analysis in retrospective and predictive periods. Since 2007, the author has been involved in practical calculations within the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Energy, Housing and Utilities of the Sverdlovsk Region. The article describes methodological characteristics of the author’s approaches to the development of variants of the fuel and energy balance, taking into account maintaining the official scenarios of socio-economic development of the region, the errors and the incompleteness of statistical data, and the regulatory requirements pertaining to the quality of forecasts

Untersuchung von K-LL-Resonanzen dielektronischer Rekombination und simultaner Innerschalen-Vakuum-Ultraviolett Übergänge in hochgeladenem Eisen mit einer Elektronenstrahl- Ionenfalle

In the framework of this master thesis measurements of dielectronic recombination (DR) on highly charged iron are presented using an electron beam ion trap (EBIT) measured by varying the electron beam energy and detecting fluorescence. K-LL resonances have usually been studied by observing the K-L X-ray transitions. With the setup presented observations of simultaneous inner-shell transitions in the VUV range become possible. The X-ray spectra of resonant recombination are acquired with a silicon drift detector (SDD). The VUV spectra are simultaneously obtained using a grating spectrometer equipped with a microchannel plate (MCP) and a delay line anode. This allows a timeresolved, as well as a wavelength-resolved detection of the VUV photons. The intensity of the spectral lines can be recorded as a function of the electron beam energy and thus related to the K-LL resonances. First measurements were performed with highly charged iron VUV spectra were used for the indirect observation of changes in charge state. In such a way it was demonstrated that it is possible to use DR resonances to increase the population in the charge state Fe23+ by a factor of 3;37(5) and in Fe22+ by a factor of 2;8(2). For future experiments this setup will be used to measure charge state distritutions and to study photonic relaxation after resonant recombination in more detail

Charge-exchange studies of bare and hydrogen-like low-Z ions in the X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet ranges inside an electron beam ion trap

In this work, a cryogenic electron beam ion trap (EBIT) for charge breeding of rare, short-lived isotopes at the ARIEL facility at TRIUMF was designed and assembled for future investigations of astrophysical processes. It was characterized at a maximum electron-beam current of 1 A. Furthermore, charge-exchange (CX) processes, which are relevant for the interface between hot plasmas and cold gases in astrophysical environments, were extensively studied. In these experiments, hydrogen-like and bare sulfur, argon, and oxygen ions capturing electrons from various neutral gas targets into highly-excited states with subsequent radiative relaxation via emission of X-rays were investigated. Thereby, a possible explanation for the recently observed emission line at 3.5 keV in galaxy clusters, with a proposed origin in the decay of sterile neutrinos, was given, in the form of CX induced K-shell emission from hydrogen-like sulfur. Additionally, measurements of extreme-ultraviolet L-shell transitions following CX into highly ionized oxygen in the range between 8 nm and 20 nm, utilizing a grating spectrometer, is presented. The results are compared with different CX models, mainly based on the multichannel Landau-Zener approach. Significant discrepancies between various experiments and models, as well as the models among each other, were ascertained and are extensively discussed

Energy problems of the rational use of the economic potential of the region

Analysis of problems of the social-economic development of the region, the assessment of the regional economy from the position of the full and rational use of its economic potential supposes developing an appropriate system of special indices, creating tools for their quantitative characteristics. Economic resources as basic constraints for regional economic development are of paramount importance. It is known that these are non-renewable natural, in particular, fuel and energy resources. State authorities at a federal and regional level play an essential role in the regulation of competitive access to energy resources in Russia. The using of balance sheet methods for analysing and comparing different ways of economic development of the areas, the corresponding demand for fuel and energy resources, regulating the export and import of fuel and energy resources, assessing the impact of energy efficiency programs and energy efficiency in the power settings are provided at the legislative level. The paper describes some results and conclusions derived from studies using different approaches to forming a regional energy balance model based on the data of the Sverdlovsk region. © 2014 WIT Press.International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering;International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning;WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environmen

Disintegration and Coordination of Forecast Parameters of Socio-Economic Development and the Fuel and Energy Balance of the Region

The scope of strategic planning documents for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the procedure for their development and coordination on interregional and federal levels, the requirements for their content and conjunction with other long- and medium-term territorial programs are now approved by statute. The article presents the theoretical and methodological problems of detailing and interrelation of the region’s socio-economic development scenarios with the forecast parameters of regional energy consumption based on the fuel and energy balance under conditions of incomplete retrospective information. This situation is typical of the market environment, and some restrictions on access to statistical data are irremovable. This fact reduces the opportunity to apply formal and rigorous evaluation methods and the objectivity level of not only the forecast indicators, but also of the current ones. The coordination of these documents is methodologically and practically relevant due to the relative isolation of their formation process, a different level of detailing of the forecast scenarios, and a lack of the required information. The author uses the energy saving and energy efficiency measurement technique that is based on the structural comparison of performance, current and estimated fuel and energy balances, consistent with the region’s socio-economic development forecast. The author is also concerned with the development of this technique for the purpose of a comparative regional energy consumption analysis in retrospective and predictive periods. Since 2007, the author has been involved in practical calculations within the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Energy, Housing and Utilities of the Sverdlovsk Region. The article describes methodological characteristics of the author’s approaches to the development of variants of the fuel and energy balance, taking into account maintaining the official scenarios of socio-economic development of the region, the errors and the incompleteness of statistical data, and the regulatory requirements pertaining to the quality of forecasts

Information and simulation model for complex regional transport

The main difficulties related to the economic study of traffic problems are caused by the large number of interrelated factors, hierarchical and competing goals of economic subjects, social and environmental problems of the territory, the degree of administrative independence of its individual parts, as well as the importance of regional economy within the country. The application of rigorous mathematical tools to assess trends in the development of transport infrastructure in these conditions is very limited and is usually reduced to the justification of a few scenarios. The paper offers specific methodological approaches, analytical apparatus with a number of the analyzed conditions and factors, a logical basis for the formation of scenarios in the design of transport systems, including the railway infrastructure of the region. The novelty of the approach used is a combination of accounting features of the territory from the perspective of mineral resources development, and quantification of long-term needs in the freight made on the balance calculations basis. © 2015 WIT Press

Imitation forecast of railway system operation in a macroregion

The article describes an analytical and information system that was used for forecasting the operation parameters of the railway system in a macroregion of Russia - the Far North. Its economy is focused on the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, metal production, construction materials, and generate large volumes of exports and inter-regional cargo flows. The region covers an expansive territory and is characterized by harsh weather, an extreme environment, and uneven development of the transportation network. Research into the transportation issues of economic development in such areas presents a challenging task because the region is unique, statistical data are incomplete and classified; there is a hierarchy of businesses and organizations operating in the region that have their own goals and objectives and compete against its other; the region is plagued with social and environmental problems and a lack of administrative integration between individual districts. Using rigorous mathematical tools for assessing transportation infrastructure projects under such conditions is only limited to finding solutions to stand-alone problems and scenario comparison. A model of the applied system that is outlined in the article makes it possible to analyze specific projects of regional railway system development that take into account strategic priorities and goals of the state, social and economic development problems experienced by the neighboring regions, the oil and gas sector and major employers, as well as corporate goals of the sustainable development of railway companies. The application of the model over an extended period of time showed that the analysis of the structure of cargo flows and customers bound to junctions of the transportation network makes it possible to suggest what aspects of the railway infrastructure should be reorganized in line with the development dynamics of economic entities that consume transportation services. The study is built upon a number of projects that were implemented in the north of Tyumen Region and the Yamal- Nenets and Khanty-Mansi autonomous areas of Russia. © 2018 WIT Press.ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract № 02.A03.21.0006

Optical spectroscopy of complex open 4dd-shell ions Sn7+^{7+}-Sn10+^{10+}

We analyze the complex level structure of ions with many-valence-electron open [Kr] 4$d^\textrm{m}$ sub-shells ($\textrm{m}$=7-4) with ab initio calculations based on configuration-interaction many-body perturbation theory (CI+MBPT). Charge-state-resolved optical and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectra of Sn$^{7+}$-Sn$^{10+}$ ions were obtained using an electron beam ion trap. Semi-empirical spectral fits carried out with the orthogonal parameters technique and Cowan code calculations lead to 90 identifications of magnetic-dipole transitions and the determination of 79 energy ground-configuration levels, questioning some earlier EUV-line assignments. Our results, the most complete data set available to date for these ground configurations, confirm the ab initio predictive power of CI+MBPT calculations for the these complex electronic systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure