Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe

Following ligand migration pathways from picoseconds to milliseconds in type ii truncated hemoglobin from thermobifida fusca

CO recombination kinetics has been investigated in the type II truncated hemoglobin from Thermobifida fusca (Tf-trHb) over more than 10 time decades (from 1 ps to ~100 ms) by combining femtosecond transient absorption, nanosecond laser flash photolysis and optoacoustic spectroscopy. Photolysis is followed by a rapid geminate recombination with a time constant of ~2 ns representing almost 60% of the overall reaction. An additional, small amplitude geminate recombination was identified at ~100 ns. Finally, CO pressure dependent measurements brought out the presence of two transient species in the second order rebinding phase, with time constants ranging from ~3 to ~100 ms. The available experimental evidence suggests that the two transients are due to the presence of two conformations which do not interconvert within the time frame of the experiment. Computational studies revealed that the plasticity of protein structure is able to define a branched pathway connecting the ligand binding site and the solvent. This allowed to build a kinetic model capable of describing the complete time course of the CO rebinding kinetics to Tf-trHb. © 2012 Marcelli et al.Fil:Bustamante, J.P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina.Fil:Estrin, D.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina

Genome sequence of Sphingomonas sp. S17, isolated from an Alkaline, hyperarsenic, and hypersaline volcano-associated lake at high altitude in the Argentinean Puna

The high-altitude Andean lakes (HAAL) in the Argentinean Puna-high Andes region represent an almost unexplored ecosystem exposed to extreme conditions (high UV irradiation, hypersalinity, drastic temperature changes, desiccation, and high pH). Here we present the first genome sequence, a Sphingomonas sp., isolated from this extreme environment. © 2011, American Society for Microbiology.Fil:Turjanski, A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina.Fil:Vazquez, M.P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina

Rotating helical turbulence: Three-dimensionalization or self-similarity in the small scales?

We present numerical evidence on how three-dimensionalization is recovered at small scale in rotating turbulence with helical forcing provided by a Beltrami flow. The relevant ranges (large-scale inverse cascade of energy, anisotropic and isotropic direct cascades of energy and helicity, dissipative) are each moderately resolved. These results stem from large direct numerical simulations on grids of either 1536 3 or 3072 3 points. In the latter case, the scale at which the inertial wave time and the eddy turn-over time are equal is found to be more than one order of magnitude larger than the dissipation scale. We also examine how the presence of such an intermediate scale could affect truncation due to the use of a helical spectral Large Eddy Simulation procedure which can allow for extending the analysis to a wider range of parameters. Finally, the self-similarity of the direct cascade of energy to small scales for rotating flows, observed recently in numerical simulations as well as in several laboratory experiments, will be discussed briefly for its scaling properties and its conformal invariance.Fil:Mininni, P.D. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina

A dynamic analysis of tuberculosis dissemination to improve control and surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes. © 2010 Zorzenon dos Santos et al.Fil:Amador, A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina.Fil:Ponce Dawson, S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina

Sterling's relationship with the dollar and the deutschemark 1976-89

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The kinetics of strain relaxation in lattice-mismatched semiconductor layers

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