Elections in Bosnia: more of the same, but there is a silver lining

Elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 7 October. Dimitar Bechev explains that Bosnian politics continues to be dominated by two ethnically defined poles, each with external support. The country will probably hold together as a state, but it will be highly dysfunctional and resistant to EU and US initiatives to promote pro-western reforms

The murder of Russia’s ambassador shows Turkey in the worst possible light

Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was shot dead on 19 December at an art gallery in Ankara. Dimitar Bechev states that although the incident was shocking, it is unlikely to disrupt the recent thawing of relations between the two countries. But the incident nevertheless shows Turkey in the worst possible light and will provide an opportunity for Russia to extract further concessions, particularly in relation to Syria

A game of polls: Bulgaria’s presidential election threatens to shake up the country’s party system

Bulgaria will hold presidential elections on 6 November, with a second round runoff scheduled for 13 November. Dimitar Bechev previews the contest, writing that the candidate supported by the country’s largest party, GERB, could face a tougher contest than originally anticipated

A very Bulgarian drama: what Rumen Radev’s presidential election victory means for Bulgarian politics

Rumen Radev, the candidate backed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, won Bulgaria’s presidential election on 13 November. Dimitar Bechev assesses what the result means for the country, stating that while Radev has been described as a pro-Russian candidate, the more important implications will be for Boyko Borisov and the Bulgarian government. Borisov has tendered the resignation of his cabinet and elections are now likely to be held in the spring of 2017

Russia in the Balkans: Perceptions and Realities

The pragmatic interests of the Balkan states – which lie in the direction of Europe – are imposing limits on the Kremlin’s drive to regain influence in the region. Dimitar Bechev summarises the Russia in the Balkans conference organised by LSEE Research on South Eastern Europe and SEESOX (South East Europe Studies at Oxford) on Friday, 13 March

Election reaction: the status quo wins in Bulgaria

Bulgaria held parliamentary elections on 26 March, with preliminary results indicating that GERB, led by Boyko Borisov, had emerged as the largest party. Dimitar Bechev analyses the results, writing that despite the Bulgarian Socialist Party building on their success in last year’s presidential election to run GERB close, the results showed the resilience of the status quo in the country

Following a disappointing presidential election, Croatia’s government now faces a challenge to hold on to power

On 11 January, Croatia held the second round of its presidential election, with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, backed by the opposition Croatian Democratic Union, narrowly beating incumbent President Ivo Josipović. Dimitar Bechev writes that with parliamentary elections scheduled for later in the year, the Croatian government led by Prime Minister Zoran Milanović now faces a challenge to hold on to power

No hope in Turkey

There is no silver lining to be sought in the aftermath of the Turkish constitutional referendum, suggests Dimitar Bechev. Erdoğan thrives on polarisation: the pattern of labelling those who do not support him as ‘traitors’ will continue for the foreseeable future. The relative success of the ‘No’ vote in the big urban centres must have hurt Erdoğan, but the near 50 per cent who opposed the current president at the ballot box on this occasion are not a homogenous group and it would be a surprise if a viable opposition candidate emerges

Russia and Turkey - What does their partnership mean for the EU? EPC Policy Brief, 13 February 2015

Russia and Turkey have, over the past two decades, developed a very constructive relationship across a wide variety of policy areas. Imperial rivals during much of the Cold War, both countries have since then found common interests in matters of energy, trade and even defence. Besides their growing interdependence, it is hard not to notice the similarities between the two leaders of these countries, especially when it comes to the conspiracy mind-set of blaming dissent at home on foreign meddling. But does this mean that Turkey is fundamentally realigning its foreign policy strategy, away from the EU and towards Russia? And is the EU facing the emergence of an “axis of the excluded”? Not so according to Dimitar Bechev. In this Policy Brief, he argues that the ties between Russia and Turkey are driven by pragmatism and realpolitik. Contentious issues – such as the war in Syria - may be insulated from areas of overlapping interest, but deeper examination shows the glue holding the two countries together – their energy interdependence – is slowly weakening. Bechev believes the EU should take advantage of this divergence and try to (re-)anchor Turkey to its own initiatives and policies

Turkey’s failed coup has firmly tightened Erdoğan’s grip on power

What does the attempted coup in Turkey mean for the country’s politics moving forward? Dimitar Bechev writes that on the one hand the failure of the coup illustrates the extent to which Turkey has become ‘civilianised’, with citizens less willing to accept the military interfering in politics. However, the net effect of the coup will be to greatly strengthen Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s grip on power