Elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 7 October. Dimitar Bechev explains that Bosnian politics continues to be dominated by two ethnically defined poles, each with external support. The country will probably hold together as a state, but it will be highly dysfunctional and resistant to EU and US initiatives to promote pro-western reforms

Bechev, Dimitar

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Elections	in	Bosnia:	More	of	the	same,	but	there	is	asilver	liningElections	were	held	in	Bosnia	and	Herzegovina	on	7	October.	Dimitar	Bechev	explains	that	Bosnianpolitics	continues	to	be	dominated	by	two	ethnically	defined	poles,	each	with	external	support.	Thecountry	will	probably	hold	together	as	a	state,	but	it	will	be	highly	dysfunctional	and	resistant	to	EU	andUS	initiatives	to	promote	pro-western	reforms.Nothing	much	changes	in	Bosnia.	A	journalist	colleague	of	mine	used	to	quip	that	since	2006,	the	yearwhen	a	major	constitutional	reform	failed,	he	could	write	the	same	piece	over	and	over	again.	The	names,	the	issues,the	concerns	would	be	pretty	much	identical.	The	West	continues	to	be	outmaneuvered	by	cunning	politiciansbeating	the	drum	of	nationalism	to	cling	to	power.Elections	seem	to	make	only	a	marginal	difference.	That’s	the	takeaway	from	October	7	when	elections	were	heldboth	at	the	state	level	of	Bosnia	and	Herzegovina	(BiH)	and	within	BiH’s	two	“entities,”	the	predominantly	Bosniak-and	Croat-populated	Federation,	and	the	Serb-populated	Republika	Srpska	(RS).	Voters	turned	out	to	elect	the	threemembers	of	the	collective	presidency	and	the	lower	house	of	the	BiH	legislature.	They	also	chose	the	heads	of	thetwo	entities	and	their	respective	legislatures.The	main	development	is	that	Milorad	Dodik,	the	current	RS	president	who	is	under	US	sanctions,	has	been	electedas	the	Serb	member	of	the	BiH	presidency,	defeating	the	incumbent	Mladen	Ivanic.	Dodik’s	party,	the	Union	ofIndependent	Social	Democrats,	also	preserved	control	over	the	RS	legislature.	In	other	words,	the	vote	hasempowered	a	nationalist	leader	who	has	openly	aligned	with	Russia	and	threatened,	on	multiple	occasions,	to	takeRS	out	of	Bosnia	and	Herzegovina	through	a	referendum.	But	his	decision	to	assume	a	seat	in	a	BiH-levelinstitution,	rather	than	remain	in	his	position	in	RS,	may	mean	he	might	not	be	pushing	for	secession	with	the	samevigor	as	he	has	before.That	doesn’t	mean	that	Dodik	will	be	less	obstructionist	after	moving	from	Banja	Luka,	RS’	capital,	to	Sarajevo.	Hewill	likely	continue	to	stoke	nationalism	as	a	means	to	divert	attention	away	from	corruption	and	abuse	of	powerwithin	the	Serbian	half	of	Bosnia.The	election	of	Sefik	Dzaferovic	as	the	Bosniak	member	of	the	presidency	underscores	continuity.	Dzaferovic	istaking	over	from	Bakir	Izetbegovic,	the	leader	of	the	Democratic	Action	Party	(SDA)	established	by	his	father,	the	latepresident	Alija	Izetbegovic.	According	to	preliminary	data,	SDA	is	in	the	lead	in	the	vote	for	the	lower	house	of	theBiH-level	parliament.	It	is	also	doing	very	well	in	the	legislative	races	in	the	Federation	entity.The	race	for	the	Croat	seat	in	the	presidency	brought	a	surprise.	Zeljko	Komsic	prevailed	over	Dragan	Covic,	thehead	of	the	main	Croat	party	HDZ.	Komsic’s	victory	is	likely	to	provoke	a	backlash	as	HDZ	activists	will	likely	blameCovic’s	defeat	on	ethnic	Bosniaks	casting	a	tactical	vote	for	Komsic,	an	ethnic	Croat,	and,	in	effect,	stealing	theposition.	That	is	what	happened	in	2006	when	Komsic	won	the	race	for	the	presidency	to	serve	over	two	terms.What	is	different	this	time	is	that	Covic	has	deepened	contacts	with	Russia.	He	might	seek	help	from	Moscow	indemanding	greater	rights	for	ethnic	Croats,	a	strategy	to	offset	the	loss	of	his	position.	Together	with	Serbian	leaderDodik,	Russia	can	count	on	two	allies	within	Bosnia’s	political	scene.To	cut	a	long	story	short,	Bosnia’s	politics	continue	to	be	dominated	by	two	ethnically	defined	poles—one	led	bySerbian	Dodik	and	another	around	Muslim	Bosniaks	and	the	SDA.	Each	of	those	two	rely	on	external	support,Russia	in	the	case	of	the	Serbs	and	Turkey	for	the	SDA.	Bosnia	will	probably	hold	together	as	a	state,	contrary	to	thefear	that	a	new	war	is	on	the	horizon.	But	it	will	be	highly	dysfunctional	and	resistant	to	EU	and	US	initiatives	topromote	pro-Western	reforms.Additionally,	there	are	mounting	suspicions	of	foul	play.	The	Central	Electoral	Commission	has	already	cancelledmore	than	452,000	ballots	cast	in	polls	at	all	levels	(BiH,	entity,	and	Federation	cantons).	That	corresponds	tobetween	6-8%	of	votes	in	any	of	those	elections	which	involve	a	body	of	just	1.5	million	voters.	There	will	be	evenmore	disputes	ahead,	in	addition	to	the	inevitable	squabble	over	Bosniaks	propelling	a	“fake	Croat”	into	thepresidency.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Elections in Bosnia: More of the same, but there is a silver lining Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2018-10-13Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/10/13/elections-in-bosnia-more-of-the-same-but-there-is-a-silver-lining/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/But	it	is	not	all	doom	and	gloom,	to	be	sure.	Ethnopolitics	is	not	the	only	game	in	town	now.	Data	shows	that	both	theSDA	and	the	HDZ	have	lost	voters	since	their	heyday	in	the	mid-1990s,	immediately	after	the	war.	The	SDA’s	basehas	shrunk	by	a	whopping	two-thirds	since	that	time.	There	is	a	shortage	of	politicians	who	can	appeal	across	theethnic	divide	(people	like	Komsic	are	an	exception),	but	voters’	preferences	are	far	from	fixed.In	RS,	too,	Dodik’s	grip	on	power	is	not	as	foolproof	as	it	seems.	Just	before	the	elections,	40,000	people	marched	inBanja	Luka	demanding	an	investigation	into	the	death	of	David	Dragicevic,	a	twenty-one-year-old	student	believed	tohave	been	kidnapped	and	murdered	by	the	police.	“Justice	for	David”	(Pravda	za	Davida)	has	become	a	rallying	cryfor	all	opponents	of	Dodik’s	increasingly	authoritarian	rule.	Remarkably,	protests	have	taken	place	in	predominantlyBosniak	Sarajevo	as	well.	In	other	words,	the	fight	for	accountability	and	clean	government	is	a	cause	that	can	uniteall	Bosnia’s	citizens.	All	is	not	lost.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	originally	appeared	at	the	Atlantic	Council.	It	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	ofEUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy,	nor	of	the	London	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	JenniferBoyer	(CC	BY	2.0)_________________________________About	the	authorDimitar	Bechev	–	Atlantic	Council	/	University	of	North	Carolina	–	Chapel	HillDimitar	Bechev	is	a	Nonresident	Senior	Fellow	at	the	Atlantic	Council’s	Eurasia	Center	and	a	researchfellow	at	the	Center	for	Slavic,	Eurasian,	and	East	European	Studies,	University	of	North	Carolina—Chapel	Hill.	He	was	formerly	a	Visiting	Fellow	at	LSEE	Research	on	South	Eastern	Europe	(LSEEuropean	Institute)	and	Director	of	the	Sofia	Office	at	the	European	Council	on	Foreign	Relations(ECFR),	where	he	covered	Turkey	and	the	Western	Balkans.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Elections in Bosnia: More of the same, but there is a silver lining Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2018-10-13Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/10/13/elections-in-bosnia-more-of-the-same-but-there-is-a-silver-lining/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Elections in Bosnia: more of the same, but there is a silver lining

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Elections in Bosnia: more of the same, but there is a silver lining

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