Economywide effects of climate‐smart agriculture in Ethiopia

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under climate change. Few studies, however, quantify at the national scale CSA's economic effects or compare CSA to input‐intensive technologies, like fertilizer or irrigation. Such quantification may help with priority setting among competing agricultural investment options. Our study uses an integrated biophysical and economic modeling approach to quantify and contrast the economywide effects of CSA (integrated soil fertility management in our study) and input‐intensive technologies in Ethiopia's cereal systems. We simulate impacts for 20‐year sequences of variable weather, with and without climate change. Results indicate that adopting CSA on 25% of Ethiopia's maize and wheat land increases annual gross domestic product (GDP) by an average 0.18% (US$49.8 million) and reduces the national poverty rate by 0.15 percentage points (112,100 people). CSA is more effective than doubling fertilizer use on the same area, which increases GDP by US$33.0 million and assists 75,300 people out of poverty. CSA and fertilizer have some substitutability, but CSA and irrigation appear complementary. Although not a panacea for food security concerns, greater adoption of CSA in Ethiopia could deliver economic gains but would need substantial tailoring to farmer‐specific contexts

Potential Economic Impacts of the Malaysia-Us Free Trade Agreement

Abstract: This study provides a quantitative economy-wide and sectoral assessment of the likely economic effects of a potential Malaysia-US Free Trade Agreement (MUFTA) on Malaysia and the US economies. The study employed a comparative static, multiple country general equilibrium model, namely the GTAP model. The model simulates the economic impact of the full elimination of bilateral import taxes and export subsidies for Malaysia and the US in the light of proposed MUFTA. Simulation results indicate that the bilateral Malaysia-US FTA is likely to induce an increase in GDP and net welfare for both parties of trade. Additionally, overall trade between Malaysia and the US is poised to expand, while trade with the Rest of the World (ROW) aggregate may decline. Our findings suggest that a bilateral Malaysia-US FTA in merchandise trade can be desirable. However, we emphasis the importance of taking strong caution and wisdom in treating and negotiating the plethora of non tariff, policy impediments instituted by Malaysia so as not to jeopardize her national socio-economic restricting agenda

Pattern changes in determinants of Chinese emissions

Chinese economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, but it cannot achieve the same rapid development of the pre-recession period. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of economic development – a "new normal". We use a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and environmental input-output analysis (IOA) to estimate the determinants of China's carbon emission changes during 2005-2012. China's imports are linked to a global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model based on the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) database to calculate the embodied CO2 emissions in imports. We find that the global financial crisis has affected the drivers of China's carbon emissions growth. From 2007 to 2010, the CO2 emissions induced by China's exports dropped, whereas emissions induced by capital formation grew rapidly. In the "new normal", the strongest factors that offset CO2 emissions have shifted from efficiency gains to structural upgrading. Efficiency was the strongest factor offsetting China's CO2 emissions before 2010 but drove a 1.4% increase in emissions in the period 2010-2012. By contrast, production structure and consumption patterns caused a 2.6% and 1.3% decrease, respectively, in China's carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012. In addition, China tends to shift gradually from an investment to a consumption-driven economy. The proportion of CO2 emissions induced by consumption had a declining trend before 2010 but grew from 28.6% to 29.1% during 2010-2012

Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy - wide perspective

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper first reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's (and hence Taiwan's) membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adds 30 per cent to estimated global gains from the Uruguay Round. Their WTO accession is projected to boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand by not only China but also its densely populated neighbours with whom it trades intensively.Kym Anderson, Betina Dimaranan, Tim Hertel and Will Marti