Why is solar cycle 24 an inefficient producer of high-energy particle events?

The aim of the study is to investigate the reason for the low productivity of high-energy SEPs in the present solar cycle. We employ scaling laws derived from diffusive shock acceleration theory and simulation studies including proton-generated upstream Alfv\'en waves to find out how the changes observed in the long-term average properties of the erupting and ambient coronal and/or solar wind plasma would affect the ability of shocks to accelerate particles to the highest energies. Provided that self-generated turbulence dominates particle transport around coronal shocks, it is found that the most crucial factors controlling the diffusive shock acceleration process are the number density of seed particles and the plasma density of the ambient medium. Assuming that suprathermal populations provide a fraction of the particles injected to shock acceleration in the corona, we show that the lack of most energetic particle events as well as the lack of low charge-to-mass ratio ion species in the present cycle can be understood as a result of the reduction of average coronal plasma and suprathermal densities in the present cycle over the previous one

Modeling Mission-Specific Worst-Case Solar Energetic Particle Environments

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. The environment during large solar energetic particle events poses the greatest challenge to missions. As a starting point for planning and design, a reference environment must be specified representing the most challenging environment to be encountered during the mission at some confidence level. The engineering challenge is then to find plans and mission design solutions that insure safe and reliable operations in this reference environment. This paper describes progress toward developing a model that provides such reference space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels

Probabilistic Solar Energetic Particle Models

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. This is done by setting the goal of achieving safety and reliability with some desired level of confidence. To achieve this goal, a worst-case space radiation environment at the required confidence level must be obtained. Planning and designing then proceeds, taking into account the effects of this worst-case environment. The result will be a mission that is reliable against the effects of the space radiation environment at the desired confidence level. In this paper we will describe progress toward developing a model that provides worst-case space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels. We will present a model for worst-case event-integrated solar proton environments that provide the worst-case differential proton spectrum. This model is based on data from IMP-8 and GOES spacecraft that provide a data base extending from 1974 to the present. We will discuss extending this work to create worst-case models for peak flux and mission-integrated fluence for protons. We will also describe plans for similar models for helium and heavier ions

Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers

Source Regions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Variability in Heavy-Ion Elemental Composition in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are those in which ions are accelerated to their observed energies by interactions with a shock driven by a fast coronal mass-ejection (CME). Previous studies have shown that much of the observed event-to-event variability can be understood in terms of shock speed and evolution in the shock-normal angle. But an equally important factor, particularly for the elemental composition, is the origin of the suprathermal seed particles upon which the shock acts. To tackle this issue, we (1) use observed solar-wind speed, magnetograms, and the PFSS model to map the Sun-L1 interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line back to its source region on the Sun at the time of the SEP observations; and (2) then look for correlation between SEP composition (as measured by Wind and ACE at approx. 2-30 MeV/nucleon) and characteristics of the identified IMF-source regions. The study is based on 24 SEP events, identified as a statistically-significant increase in approx. 20 MeV protons and occurring in 1998 and 2003-2006, when the rate of newly-emergent solar magnetic flux and CMEs was lower than in solar-maximum years and the field-line tracing is therefore more likely to be successful. We find that the gradual SEP Fe/O is correlated with the field strength at the IMF-source, with the largest enhancements occurring when the footpoint field is strong, due to the nearby presence of an active region. In these cases, other elemental ratios show a strong charge-to-mass (q/M) ordering, at least on average, similar to that found in impulsive events. These results lead us to suggest that magnetic reconnection in footpoint regions near active regions bias the heavy-ion composition of suprathermal seed ions by processes qualitatively similar to those that produce larger heavy-ion enhancements in impulsive SEP events. To address potential technical concerns about our analysis, we also discuss efforts to exclude impulsive SEP events from our event sample

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models

The Classical Pink-Eyed Dilution Mutation Affects Angiogenic Responsiveness

Angiogenesis is the process by which new blood vessels are formed from existing vessels. Mammalian populations, including humans and mice, harbor genetic variations that alter angiogenesis. Angiogenesis-regulating gene variants can result in increased susceptibility to multiple angiogenesis-dependent diseases in humans. Our efforts to dissect the complexity of the genetic diversity that regulates angiogenesis have used laboratory animals due to the availability of genome sequence for many species and the ability to perform high volume controlled breeding. Using the murine corneal micropocket assay, we have observed more than ten-fold difference in angiogenic responsiveness among various mouse strains. This degree of difference is observed with either bFGF or VEGF induced corneal neovascularization. Ongoing mapping studies have identified multiple loci that affect angiogenic responsiveness in several mouse models. In this study, we used F2 intercrosses between C57BL/6J and the 129 substrains 129P1/ReJ and 129P3/J, as well as the SJL/J strain, where we have identified new QTLs that affect angiogenic responsiveness. In the case of AngFq5, on chromosome 7, congenic animals were used to confirm the existence of this locus and subcongenic animals, combined with a haplotype-based mapping approach that identified the pink-eyed dilution mutation as a candidate polymorphism to explain AngFq5. The ability of mutations in the pink-eyed dilution gene to affect angiogenic response was demonstrated using the p-J allele at the same locus. Using this allele, we demonstrate that pink-eyed dilution mutations in Oca2 can affect both bFGF and VEGF-induced corneal angiogenesis

Apnea in newborn infants: Approach to management

Approximately 25% of infants with birth weights less than 1800 g or infants of about 34 weeks gestational age have an apneic episode. This, and the known high incidence of apneas in infants who subsequently are victims of sudden infant death syndrome, has led to aggressive attempts at early identification of newborns with abnormal cardio-respiratory patterns. We have found the pneumocardiogram to be effective in detecting cardio-respiratory abnormality in the newborn, and a very useful tool in the assessment of the effectiveness of pharmacologic therapy of neonatal apnea. Infants who are discharged on a home apnea monitor should be managed, utilizing a coordinated multidisciplinary team approach, that includes 24 h availability of a physician, technician, community health nurse, social worker and, when possible, a member of a parent support group. This paper presents a review of neonatal apnea and our institutional approach to its evaluation and management.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/24912/1/0000339.pd

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models