Warming of the Willamette River, 1850–Present: The Effects of Climate Change and Direct Human Interventions

Using archival research methods, we found and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140 year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow, and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid 20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at ~1.1 °C /century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January/February (1.3 °C /century) and the smallest in May/June (~ 0.8 °C /century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 °C has increased by ~20 days since the 1800s, to ~60 d yr-1. Moreover, cold water days below 2 °C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since ~1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ±0.25 °C) but also occur due to increased reservoir capacity, altered land use and river morphology, and other anthropogenic changes (0.34 ±0.12 °C). Managed release of water influences Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of 0.27 °C and 0.56 °C estimated for August and September. System changes have decreased daily variability (σ) by 0.44 °C, increased thermal memory, and reduced interannual variability. These system changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna

Shallow‑Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System

Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 105 ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ( 54+5 −14 %, or ~ 50 × 105 ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was 63+2 −3 %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of 5+16 −5 % and 4+14 −6 %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less

Evaluation of Life History Diversity, Habitat Connectivity, and Survival Benefits Associated with Habitat Restoration Actions in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, Annual Report 2009

This report describes the 2009 research conducted under the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE or Corps) project EST-09-P-01, titled “Evaluation of Life History Diversity, Habitat Connectivity, and Survival Benefits Associated with Habitat Restoration Actions in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary.” The research was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Marine Science Laboratory and Hydrology Group, in partnership with the University of Washington, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Columbia Basin Research, and Earl Dawley (NOAA Fisheries, retired). This Columbia River Fish Mitigation Program project, referred to as “Salmonid Benefits,” was started in FY 2009 to evaluate the state-of-the science regarding the ability to quantify the benefits to listed salmonids1 of habitat restoration actions in the lower Columbia River and estuary

Impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake on Water Levels and Wetlands of the Lower Columbia River and Estuary

Subsidence after a subduction zone earthquake can cause major changes in estuarine bathymetry. Here, we quantify the impacts of earthquake-induced subsidence on hydrodynamics and habitat distributions in a major system, the lower Columbia River Estuary, using a hydrodynamic and habitat model. Model results indicate that coseismic subsidence increases tidal range, with the smallest changes at the coast and a maximum increase of ∼10% in a region of topographic convergence. All modeled scenarios reduce intertidal habitat by 24%–25% and shifts ∼93% of estuarine wetlands to lower-elevation habitat bands. Incorporating dynamic effects of tidal change from subsidence yields higher estimates of remaining habitat by multiples of 0–3.7, dependent on the habitat type. The persistent tidal change and chronic habitat disturbance after an earthquake poses strong challenges for estuarine management and wetland restoration planning, particularly when coupled with future sea-level rise effects

Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation for the Federal Columbia River Estuary Program

The purpose ofthis document is to describe research, monitoring, and evaluation (RME) for the Federal Columbia River Estuary Program. The intent of this RME effort is to provide data and information to evaluate progress toward meeting program goals and objectives and support decision-making in the Estuary Program. The goal of the Estuary Program is to understand, conserve, and restore the estuary ecosystem to improve the performance of listed salmonid populations. The Estuary Program has five general objectives, designed to fulfill the program goal, as follows. 1. Understand the primary stressors affecting ecosystem controlling factors, such as ocean conditions and invasive species. 2. Conserve and restore factors controlling ecosystem structures and processes, such as hydrodynamics and water quality. 3. Increase the quantity and quality of ecosystem structures, i.e., habitats, juvenile salmonids use during migration through the estuary. 4. Maintain the food web to benefit salmonid performance. 5. Improve salmonid performance in terms of life history diversity, foraging success, growth, and survival. The goal of estuary RME is to provide pertinent and timely research and monitoring information to planners, implementers, and managers of the Estuary Program. In conclusion, the estuary RME effort is designed to meet the research and monitoring needs of the estuary Program using an adaptive management process. Estuary RME's success and usefulness will depend on the actual conduct of adaptive management, as embodied in the objectives, implrementation, data, reporting, and synthesis, evaluation, and decision-making described herein

The Oncor Geodatabase for the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program: Handbook of Data Reduction Procedures, Workbooks, and Exchange Templates

This Handbook of Data Reduction Procedures, Workbooks, and Exchange Templates is designed to support the Oncor geodatabase for the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP). The following data categories are covered: water-surface elevation and temperature, sediment accretion rate, photo points, herbaceous wetland vegetation cover, tree plots and site summaries, fish catch and density, fish size, fish diet, fish prey, and Chinook salmon genetic stock identification. The handbook is intended for use by scientists collecting monitoring and research data for the CEERP. The ultimate goal of Oncor is to provide quality, easily accessible, geospatial data for synthesis and evaluation of the collective performance of CEERP ecosystem restoration actions at a program scale

Protocols for Monitoring Habitat Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary

Protocols for monitoring salmon habitat restoration projects are essential for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' environmental efforts in the Columbia River estuary. This manual provides state-of-the science data collection and analysis methods for landscape features, water quality, and fish species composition, among others

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2004

The restoration of wetland salmon habitat in the tidal portion of the Columbia River is occurring at an accelerating pace and is anticipated to improve habitat quality and effect hydrological reconnection between existing and restored habitats. Currently multiple groups are applying a variety of restoration strategies in an attempt to emulate historic estuarine processes. However, the region lacks both a standardized means of evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects as well as methods for determining the cumulative effects of all restoration projects on a regional scale. This project is working to establish a framework to evaluate individual and cumulative ecosystem responses to restoration activities in order to validate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities designed to benefit salmon through improvements to habitat quality and habitat opportunity (i.e. access) in the Columbia River from Bonneville Dam to the ocean. The review and synthesis of approaches to measure the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects focused on defining methods and metrics of relevance to the CRE, and, in particular, juvenile salmon use of this system. An extensive literature review found no previous study assessing the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects on the fundamental processes and functions of a large estuarine system, although studies are underway in other large land-margin ecosystems including the Florida Everglades and the Louisiana coastal wetlands. Literature from a variety of scientific disciplines was consulted to identify the ways that effects can accumulate (e.g., delayed effects, cross-boundary effects, compounding effects, indirect effects, triggers and thresholds) as well as standard and innovative tools and methods utilized in cumulative effects analyses: conceptual models, matrices, checklists, modeling, trends analysis, geographic information systems, carrying capacity analysis, and ecosystem analysis. Potential indicators for detecting a signal in the estuarine system resulting from the multiple projects were also reviewed, i.e. organic matter production, nutrient cycling, sedimentation, food webs, biodiversity, salmon habitat usage, habitat opportunity, and allometry. In subsequent work, this information will be used to calculate the over net effect on the ecosystem. To evaluate the effectiveness of habitat restoration actions in the lower Columbia River and estuary, a priority of this study has been to develop a set of minimum ecosystem monitoring protocols based on metrics important for the CRE. The metrics include a suite of physical measurements designed to evaluate changes in hydrological and topographic features, as well as biological metrics that will quantify vegetation and fish community structure. These basic measurements, intended to be conducted at all restoration sites in the CRE, will be used to (1) evaluate the effectiveness of various restoration procedures on target metrics, and (2) provide the data to determine the cumulative effects of many restoration projects on the overall system. A protocol manual is being developed for managers, professional researchers, and informed volunteers, and is intended to be a practical technical guide for the design and implementation of monitoring for the effects of restoration activities. The guidelines are intended to standardize the collection of data critical for analyzing the anticipated ecological change resulting from restoration treatments. Field studies in 2005 are planned to initiate the testing and evaluation of these monitoring metrics and protocols and initiate the evaluation of higher order metrics for cumulative effects

Applying cumulative effects to strategically advance large-scale ecosystem restoration

International efforts to restore degraded ecosystems will continue to expand over the coming decades, yet the factors contributing to the effectiveness of long-term restoration across large areas remain largely unexplored. At large scales, outcomes are more complex and synergistic than the additive impacts of individual restoration projects. Here, we propose a cumulative-effects conceptual framework to inform restoration design and implementation and to comprehensively measure ecological outcomes. To evaluate and illustrate this approach, we reviewed long-term restoration in several large coastal and riverine areas across the US: the greater Florida Everglades; Gulf of Mexico coast; lower Columbia River and estuary; Puget Sound; San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta; Missouri River; and northeastern coastal states. Evidence supported eight modes of cumulative effects of interacting restoration projects, which improved outcomes for species and ecosystems at landscape and regional scales. We conclude that cumulative effects, usually measured for ecosystem degradation, are also measurable for ecosystem restoration. The consideration of evidence-based cumulative effects will help managers of large-scale restoration capitalize on positive feedback and reduce countervailing effects

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2005

This report is the second annual report of a six-year project to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration projects in the Columbia River Estuary, conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Marine Sciences Laboratory, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service Pt. Adams Biological Field Station, and the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce for the US Army Corps of Engineers. In 2005, baseline data were collected on two restoration sites and two associated reference sites in the Columbia River estuary. The sites represent two habitat types of the estuary--brackish marsh and freshwater swamp--that have sustained substantial losses in area and that may play important roles for salmonids. Baseline data collected included vegetation and elevation surveys, above and below-ground biomass, water depth and temperature, nutrient flux, fish species composition, and channel geometry. Following baseline data collection, three kinds of restoration actions for hydrological reconnection were implemented in several locations on the sites: tidegate replacements (2) at Vera Slough, near the city of Astoria in Oregon State, and culvert replacements (2) and dike breaches (3) at Kandoll Farm in the Grays River watershed in Washington State. Limited post-restoration data were collected: photo points, nutrient flux, water depth and temperature, and channel cross-sections. In subsequent work, this and additional post-restoration data will be used in conjunction with data from other sites to estimate net effects of hydrological reconnection restoration projects throughout the estuary. This project is establishing methods for evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects and a framework for assessing estuary-wide cumulative effects including a protocol manual for monitoring restoration and reference sites