A Formal Definition of Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium for Extensive Games

Often, perfect bayesian equilibrium is loosely defined by stating that players should be sequentially rational given some beliefs in which Bayes rule is applied “whenever possible”. We show that there are games in which it is not clear what “whenever possible” means. Then, we provide a simple definition of perfect bayesian equilibrium for general extensive games that refines both weak perfect equilibrium and subgame perfect equilibrium.non-cooperative game theory, equilibrium concepts, perfect bayesian, Bayes rule.

Impact of heat waves on daily mortality in distinct age groups

Objetivos: Establecer si la temperatura máxima diaria a partir de la cual aumenta la mortalidad en las olas de calor varía según los diferentes grupos de edad y cuantificar el aumento de esta mortalidad por grupos de edad. Métodos: La variable dependiente es la mortalidad diaria por todas las causas, menos accidentes, ocurrida en Madrid desde 1986 hasta 1997. Los grupos de edad analizados han sido 0-10, 18-44, 45-64, 65-74 y > 75 años. Se ha trabajado con la temperatura máxima diaria de los meses de verano. Se ha controlado por tendencia y estacionalidades y por contaminación atmosférica. La metodología utilizada ha sido la modelización ARIMA y la regresión de Poisson. Resultados: En todos los grupos de edad, excepto en el de menores de 10 años, hay una asociación entre el calor y la mortalidad. La temperatura a partir de la cual aumenta la mortalidad no cambia de un grupo de edad a otro y coincide con el percentil 95 de la serie de temperaturas máximas diarias de los meses de verano, que para Madrid es de 36,5 °C. Por otro lado, el incremento de la mortalidad por cada grado en que la temperatura máxima diaria supera ese umbral se mantiene prácticamente constante desde los 18 a los 64 años, y aumenta sensiblemente para los mayores de 65 años. Conclusiones: Se constata la asociación entre la mortalidad y el calor en personas menores de 64 años, por lo que los planes de prevención no han de estar centrados exclusivamente en los grupos de mayor edad.S

¿Qué es el fenómeno de la isla de calor urbana y cómo puede afectar a la salud?

Artículo de divulgación publicado en The Conversation España, el 18/06/2023.Se llama isla de calor urbana al aumento de temperatura nocturna que registra el interior de las ciudades en comparación con la periferia. Un estudio ha comprobado que este fenómeno tiene más impacto sobre la salud de la población en las urbes costeras. En el contexto actual de emergencia climática, el calentamiento global se hace cada vez más presente, también en las ciudades. Fenómenos como la isla de calor urbana o las olas de calor son cada vez más intensos y frecuentes. Además, las migraciones provocadas por el cambio climático aumentarán el número de personas que viven en las urbes. Pero ¿hasta qué punto afectan esos fenómenos térmicos a la salud y bienestar de sus habitantes?N

Traffic Noise and Respiratory Diseases: Is There Evidence?

Recientemente la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) ha publicado la Guía “Environmental Noise Guidelines for the European Region” 1, en ella, se analiza el impacto que tiene el ruido de tráfico sobre diferentes patologías no auditivas; entre ellas, las cardiovasculares, en concreto la enfermedad isquémica y la hipertensión. Sin embargo, no se menciona la posible incidencia que el ruido de tráfico puede tener sobre enfermedades de tipo respiratorio pese a existir evidencias científicas que muestran la existencia de una relación entre ambos factores.S

Impact of particulate matter with diameter of less than 2.5 microns [PM2.5] on daily hospital admissions in 0-10-year-olds in Madrid. Spain [2003-2005]]

Introducción: La Organización Mundial de la Salud establece como valor límite anual para la concentración de partículas PM2,5 en el aire el valor de 10µg/m3. No obstante, en algunas grandes ciudades, como Madrid, este valor prácticamente se duplica, con el consiguiente impacto sobre la morbimortalidad. Objetivo: Analizar y cuantificar el impacto que las PM2,5 tienen sobre los ingresos hospitalarios diarios en la ciudad de Madrid en niños menores de 10 años. Material y métodos: Se analizan los ingresos diarios en el servicio de urgencias del Hospital Gregorio Marañón de Madrid, por todas las causas menos accidentes (CIE-10: A00-R99) en el período 2003-2005, tanto para menores de 10 años como de un año. La metodología de análisis es la regresión de Poisson. Se controla por contaminación atmosférica química, acústica y polínica, así como por autocorrelación, tendencias, estacionalidades, días de la semana y epidemias de gripe. Resultados: Las PM2,5 son el único contaminante primario que aparece relacionado con los ingresos hospitalarios en la modelización. El riesgo relativo asociado a un incremento de 10µg/m3 fue de 1,03 (intervalo de confianza [IC95%]: 1,00-1,05) para el grupo de menores de 10 años y de 1,03 (IC95%]: 1,00-1,06) para menores de un año. Los riesgos atribuibles fueron del 2,7 y el 2,8%, respectivamente. Conclusión: Las PM2,5 son un excelente indicador de los efectos en salud de contaminantes primarios. Se pone de manifiesto la necesidad de implementar medidas para la reducción de PM2,5 en la atmósfera de las grandes ciudades.Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Instituto de Salud Carlos III. No Identificación SEPY 1453/07.S

Emergencia climática significa crisis en salud pública

Artículo de divulgación publicado en The Conversation España el día 12/09/2022.El cambio climático es el desafío ambiental con incidencia en salud pública más importante al que se enfrenta hoy la sociedad. Además, constituye un reto social, al acentuar aún más las desigualdades e inequidades en salud.N

Are prevention plans in response to heat wave alerts effective?

CARTAS A LA DIRECTOR

Geographical variation in relative risks associated with cold waves in Spain: The need for a cold wave prevention plan

In general, there are few studies that analyse the impact of low temperatures on mortality and fewer still that use cold-wave-definition thresholds based on epidemiological and non-climatological criteria. Such a threshold definition, which took into account population features such as socio-economic and demographic characteristics, made it possible for a specific threshold temperature to be obtained for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals in this study. Using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link, and controlling for trend, autocorrelations and seasonalities of the series, and influenza epidemics, we obtained the impact of low temperatures on mortality in each provincial capital by calculating the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes. The study showed higher minimum temperature thresholds in coastal areas, and an overall impact of cold on mortality in Spain due to natural causes RR=1.13 (95% CI: 1.11-1.16), circulatory causes RR=1.18 (95% CI: 1.15-1.22) and respiratory causes RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20-1.29) slightly greater than that obtained to date for heat. From a public health standpoint, there is a need for specific cold wave prevention plans at a regional level which would enable mortality attributable to low temperatures to be reduced. These plans have shown themselves to be effective in decreasing heat-related mortality, and we feel that they are essential for reducing cold-related effects on morbidity and mortality.This study was supported by grants: FIS ENPY 1001/13 & SEPY 1037/14 from Spain's Health Research FundS

Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city

BACKGROUND: The Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000-2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or "profitability" of implementing prevention plans against LTD. METHODS: Previous studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective. RESULTS: Over the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000-2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M. CONCLUSION: The effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more "profitable" prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality.This study was supported by grants FIS ENPY 1001/13 & SEPY 1037/14 from Spain's Health Research Fund.S

Short-term effects of traffic noise on suicides and emergency hospital admissions due to anxiety and depression in Madrid (Spain)

Studies show a relationship between some mental illnesses and suicides and different environmental variables such as air pollution, characterized by stress at the neuropsychological level. Despite the fact that traffic noise is also a powerful neurological stressor, studies that relate traffic noise to these mental disorders are practically non-existent. The objective is to analyze the short-term impact that chemical air pollution, traffic noise and thermal extremes have on emergency hospital admissions due to anxiety, dementia and suicides in the city of Madrid. This ecological, longitudinal study uses generalized linear models with Poisson link to analyze the short-term impact of the average daily concentrations of chemical pollutants (NO2, PM10, PM2.5, O3), noise pollution indicators (Leqday, Leqnight and Leq24h) and temperatures during heat waves (Theat) and cold waves (Tcold) on daily admissions to emergency services in the city of Madrid from 2010 to 2013 due to anxiety (ICD-10: F32), depression (ICD-10: F40-F42) and suicide (ICD-10: X60-X84). The results show no association between any of the chemical pollutants considered and the dependent variables studied. On the contrary, the values of Leqday are associated with the three variables analyzed in lag 0 for the cases of anxiety and depression and in lag 1 for suicides, with RR: 1.20 (IC95% 1.14 1.26), RR: 1.11 (IC95% 1.06 1.16) and RR: 1.17 (IC95% 1.05 1.30), respectively, for increases of 1 dB(A) in the values of Leqday. An association was also found between Tcold and admissions for anxiety in lag 9 with RR: 1.62 (IC95% 1.18 2.22) for increases of 1 °C in the values of Tcold. Traffic noise can be considered an important risk factor related to the illnesses and anxiety and depression and for suicides in the city of Madrid, although new studies are needed to support the findings shown here.The authors gratefully acknowledge Project ENPY 376/18 and Project ENPY 107/18 grants from the Institute of Health Carlos III.S