Autoregressive approaches to import-export time series I: basic techniques

This work is the first part of a project dealing with an in-depth study of effective techniques used in econometrics in order to make accurate forecasts in the concrete framework of one of the major economies of the most productive Italian area, namely the province of Verona. In particular, we develop an approach mainly based on vector autoregressions, where lagged values of two or more variables are considered, Granger causality, and the stochastic trend approach useful to work with the cointegration phenomenon. Latter techniques constitute the core of the present paper, whereas in the second part of the project, we present how these approaches can be applied to economic data at our disposal in order to obtain concrete analysis of import--export behavior for the considered productive area of Verona.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.15559/15-VMSTA22 in the Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications (https://www.i-journals.org/vtxpp/VMSTA) by VTeX (http://www.vtex.lt/

Spatial birth-and-death processes with a finite number of particles

Spatial birth-and-death processes with time dependent rates are obtained as solutions to certain stochastic equations. The existence, uniqueness, uniqueness in law and the strong Markov property of unique solutions are proven when the integral of the birth rate over $\mathbb{R} ^ \mathrm{d}$ grows not faster than linearly with the number of particles of the system. Martingale properties of the constructed process provide a rigorous connection to the heuristic generator. We also study pathwise behavior of an aggregation model. The probability of extinction and the growth rate of the number of particles conditioning on non-extinction are estimated.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1502.06783. New version note: significant structural and other change

A nonlinear Kolmogorov equation for stochastic functional delay differential equations with jumps

We consider a stochastic functional delay differential equation, namely an equation whose evolution depends on its past history as well as on its present state, driven by a pure diffusive component plus a pure jump Poisson compensated measure. We lift the problem in the infinite dimensional space of square integrable Lebesgue functions in order to show that its solution is an $L^2-$valued Markov process whose uniqueness can be shown under standard assumptions of locally Lipschitzianity and linear growth for the coefficients. Coupling the aforementioned equation with a standard backward differential equation, and deriving some ad hoc results concerning the Malliavin derivative for systems with memory, we are able to derive a non--linear Feynman--Kac representation theorem under mild assumptions of differentiability