The Confidence-Competence Gap in Large Language Models: A Cognitive Study

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.Comment: 19 pages, 8 Figures, to be published in a journal (Journal TBD), All Authors contributed equally and were Supervised by Chandra Dhaka

Weed Management in Pulses: Overview and Prospects

Pulses, the world’s second-most consumed food, are an important source of food. They face several major challenges, including weed infestations, as a wide variety of weeds compete with them. Because of their competition with weeds, pulses can suffer a significant yield reduction. So as to alleviate such a menace, growers rely on different management tools, such as tillage, intercropping systems, and herbicides. Each method has been effective, albeit to varying degrees, in resolving the issue. Chemical herbicides, however, have served as double-edged swords over the past few decades due to their indiscriminate use. The repetitive use of the same herbicide or herbicides with the same mode of action confers resistance, thereby, leading to a serious impact on only nontargets. Therefore, it requires well-thought-out planning for a weed management strategy to maximize yields without creating environmental issues concomitantly. At the present, the integrated weed management approach has been accepted as the most reasonable tool for many farmers, which includes using preventive strategies, mechanical tools, crop rotation, intercropping, and herbicides with different modes of action, but cautiously. Modeling and robotics are the cutting-edge technologies that growers will be using for weed management in the coming days, thanks to the advent of such new innovation

Nitrogen uptake and economics of black rice (Oryza sativa L. indica) under different crop geometries and nitrogen management practices

Black rice has more antioxidants than any other rice variety.  It is considered to have multiple benefits in human health due to the presence of different antioxidants. A field experiment was conducted during rainy season of 2015-2016 to assess the nitrogen uptake, use efficiency and economics of black rice production under different crop geometry and nitrogen (N) management practices in Rampur, Chitwan, Nepal. The experiment was laid out in strip plot design with three replications. The experiment consisted of  treatment combination of three crop geometry (20 cm × 20 cm, 20 cm × 15 cm and 15 cm × 15 cm) in vertical plots and three nitrogen management practices (N level: 30 kg N ha-1, 60 kg N ha-1, and LCC based N-management) in horizontal plots. The results showed that the highest N uptake was recorded from closer spacing (15 cm × 15 cm) with LCC based N management. The net return and B: C ratios were higher at a closer spacing of 15 cm × 15 cm with LCC based N management and closer spacing of 15 cm × 15 cm with N application of 60 kg ha-1. The overall analysis revealed that LCC based N management under closer crop geometry (15 cm × 15 cm) was the best management practices because of high nitrogen uptake and highest monetary return with B: C ratio of 5.76

Случай раннего выявления метастазов в бедренной кости у больного раком полового члена

Background. Bone metastasis is very common in the advanced stage of numerous carcinomas. In penile carcinoma, lymph nodes metastasis is somehow common but it is very rare reported to be secondary from penile cancer. till the date, there are only few cases of penis carcinoma reported bone metastasis in literature worldwide.Case Presentation. Herein, We presented a 51-year-old Nepalese male with squamous cell carcinoma of penis. computed tomography (ct) scan of the patient revealed that there was carcinoma involving glans penis and precure with bilateral external & internal inguinal lymphadenopathies. After then, the patient was under gone for partial penectomy and bilateral inguinal lymphadenectomy and complete 6-cycle chemotherapy. After one year of treatment, patient developed thigh pain and headache and he advised to have magnetic Resonance imaging (mRi) of brain, 99mTc-MDP whole body bone scan and ct scan of pelvis and thigh. The examination report reveals that there was a sclerotic change in vertex of skull bone and moderate 99mTc-MDP uptake in right proximal shaft of femur just below the neck d/d metastasis. The histopathological examination of the true cut biopsy taken from the lesion of the femur showed metastatic keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma which is rare case of femoral shaft bone metastasis secondary from penile carcinoma. Then patient was sent for surgical reconstruction of femur. Based on the case studies review femur shaft bone metastasis from penile cancer is extremely rare.Conclusion. The best of our knowledge; this is the first early detected bone metastases to shaft of the femur in a patient with penile cancer. early diagnosis helps to radical treatment as well as palliative treatment. surgery is the preferred option of the treatments, especially for metastatic foci in the long bones.Аннотация Метастазы в кости часто встречаются на поздних стадиях разных злокачественных новообразований. Для рака полового члена характерно лимфогенное метастазирование, костные метастазы встречаются очень редко. На данный момент в мировой литературе зарегистрировано лишь несколько случаев рака полового члена с метастазами в кости.Описание клинического случая. Мы представляем описание клинического случая плоскоклеточного рака полового члена у 51-летнего мужчины из Непала. Компьютерная томография (КТ) выявила рак полового члена, локализованный на головке и крайней плоти с двусторонней паховой лимфаденопатией. Пациенту выполнена частичная пенэктомия, двусторонняя паховая лимфаденэктомия, проведено 6 курсов адъювантной химиотерапии. Через один год после завершения лечения у пациента появились боли в бедре и головная боль, рекомендована МРТ головного мозга, сканирование костей скелета с 99mTc-MDP и КТ таза и бедра. Обследование показало наличие склеротических изменений в теменной кости черепа и умеренное накопление 99mTc-MDP в проксимальном отделе правом бедренной кости ниже шейки. Гистологическое исследование биоптата, взятого из очага в бедренной кости, выявило метастаз ороговевающего плоскоклеточного рака, что является редким случаем метастазирования рака полового члена в диафиз бедренной кости. Пациент был направлен на хирургическую реконструкцию бедренной кости. Согласно обзору клинических исследований, метастазы в диафизе бедренной кости при раке полового члена встречаются крайне редко.Заключение. Представлен первый случай раннего выявления костных метастазов в диафизе бедренной кости у пациента с раком полового члена. Ранняя диагностика помогает как радикальному, так и паллиативному лечению. Хирургическое вмешательство является предпочтительным вариантом лечения, особенно при метастатических очагах в длинных костях

Do Large Language Models Show Human-like Biases? Exploring Confidence—Competence Gap in AI

This study investigates self-assessment tendencies in Large Language Models (LLMs), examining if patterns resemble human cognitive biases like the Dunning–Kruger effect. LLMs, including GPT, BARD, Claude, and LLaMA, are evaluated using confidence scores on reasoning tasks. The models provide self-assessed confidence levels before and after responding to different questions. The results show cases where high confidence does not correlate with correctness, suggesting overconfidence. Conversely, low confidence despite accurate responses indicates potential underestimation. The confidence scores vary across problem categories and difficulties, reducing confidence for complex queries. GPT-4 displays consistent confidence, while LLaMA and Claude demonstrate more variations. Some of these patterns resemble the Dunning–Kruger effect, where incompetence leads to inflated self-evaluations. While not conclusively evident, these observations parallel this phenomenon and provide a foundation to further explore the alignment of competence and confidence in LLMs. As LLMs continue to expand their societal roles, further research into their self-assessment mechanisms is warranted to fully understand their capabilities and limitations

Adoption status of improved production technology in rice cultivation in Kanchanpur, Nepal

A study was carried out in 2020 to assess the scenario of the improved production technologies among rice growers in Kanchanpur and to identify the factors influencing the adoption of these technologies. The simple random sampling procedure was used to collect data from 90 respondents using a semi-structured interview schedule from Belauri, Bhimdutta municipality, and Beldandi rural municipality which are under the command area of the rice super zone, Kanchanpur. The information on prevailing cultural practice, production, and productivity, adoption of improved technology, problems/constraints faced by farmers in rice cultivation in the study area were collected from the farmers by interview. The data were processed, cleaned, and analyzed using software MS-excel and SPSS. The simple descriptive and inferential statistics like chi-square and binary logistic regression models were used to find the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Respondents adopted plant protection measures (chemical weed control, insects, and disease control) and seed treatment relatively less than they adopted recommended variety, Seed Replacement Rate (SRR), and storage treatment.  The majority of the respondents were affiliated with the farmers’ groups but the majority of them had not received training. Furthermore, spade, hoe, tractor, thresher, sickle, wooden plough bullock cart water pumps, tillers, reapers were used by respondents. Binary logistic regression revealed that membership of agriculture group, advice from agriculture technician, training, visit of extension workers and rice cultivated land had a positive and significant effect on the adoption of various production practices. Inadequate availability of fertilizers and inputs (0.85), Inadequate training (0.68), inadequate machinery availability (0.54) were the major constraints faced by the farmers on rice cultivation

Key steps in environmental impact assessment: a comparative study of China, Queensland State of Australia and Nepal

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) has evolved as an environmental management and sustainability tool. Despite common principles shared by EIA globally, there are considerable variations in EIA processes across countries. In this paper, we reviewed and compared EIA processes of China, Queensland State of Australia and Nepal considering five key steps (selection of consultants, report preparation, public participation, report review and approval, and monitoring and evaluations) of EIA. Our review indicated that the EIA is well recognised in legal instruments in all state and countries under consideration and there are both similarities and differences in key steps of EIA. Monitoring of EIA recommendations and the integration of feedbacks from the past and current practices are important in improving EIA processes. This study also found that there are elements for possible improvement in existing EIA processes by each state and country introducing the best practices from others’ EIA system. Some of the practices that Nepal can follow from the EIA processes of Queensland and China are licensing and accreditation of individuals and firms to conduct EIA, establishment of separate monitoring unit within regulating department, development of clear guidelines for approvals and monitoring, and the use of independent third-party auditing in EIA monitoring. The findings of this paper are useful in revising and improving EIA policies, practices and processes in the selected state, countries and elsewhere

Factors Influencing the Potential Distribution of Globally Endangered Egyptian Vulture Nesting Habitat in Nepal

Habitat suitability is crucial to ensure the long-term persistence of species and can be identified based on relationships between species occurrences and underlying abiotic and biotic factors. We identified potential nesting habitat for the Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in Nepal using ecological niche modeling with climatic variables. We estimated the currently suitable nesting habitat for Egyptian vulture in Nepal at 38,204 km2. We found a high probability of suitable nesting habitat on east-facing aspects, and the probability of a suitable nesting habitat was greater in more mountainous areas, particularly in central and western regions of Nepal. Precipitation was a major factor for predicting probability of the presence of nest sites for Egyptian vultures. After identifying potentially suitable habitat, we identified environmental factors affecting landscape-level suitable nesting habitat for Egyptian vultures using generalized linear models. For Egyptian vultures, sites near forests and human settlements were most suitable for nesting, roosting, and foraging, especially in central and western Nepal. Based on potentially suitable nesting habitat and previous work on Egyptian vulture foraging and roosting habitat, we recommend protecting forests near water sources and open areas for their long-term conservation