R You Still Using Excel? The Advantages of Modern Software Tools for Health Technology Assessment

The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research Economic models are used in health technology assessments (HTAs) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of competing medical technologies and inform the efficient use of health care resources. Historically, these models have been developed with specialized commercial software (such as TreeAge) or more commonly with spreadsheet software (almost always Microsoft Excel). Although these tools may be sufficient for relatively simple analyses, they put unnecessary constraints on the analysis that may ultimately limit its credibility and relevance. In contrast, modern programming languages such as R, Python, Matlab, and Julia facilitate the development of models that are (i) clinically realistic, (ii) capable of quantifying decision uncertainty, (iii) transparent and reproducible, and (iv) reusable and adaptable. An HTA environment that encourages use of modern software can therefore help ensure that coverage and pricing decisions confer greatest possible benefit and capture all scientific uncertainty, thus enabling correct prioritization of future research

Paper Session III-B - The Prospector\u27s Proposal: Research Advancing Survivability Through Resource Options

As a group of nine Astronautical Engineering majors, we have identified a problem of great concern. It involves the scarcity of strategic materials and the possibility that our supply will be cut off. The Prospector\u27s Proposal is our solution. This proposal involves a prospecting mission to the asteroid belt, specifically Ceres. Using heavy lift vehicles, we will put our spacecraft into orbit where it will be assembled. A nuclear drive will provide propulsion for the unmanned probe. A landing craft will transport a mobile unit to the surface. This unit will collect samples that may contain sufficient quantities of the necessary materials to justify future mining. We have set a launch date for Spring 2001

A Pilot Study Identifying Statin Nonadherence With Visit-to-Visit Variability of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol

Nonadherence to cardiovascular medications such as statins is a common, important problem. Clinicians currently rely on intuition to identify medication nonadherence. The visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol might represent an opportunity to identify statin nonadherence with greater accuracy. We examined the clinical and pharmacy data from 782 members of the Boston Medical Center Health Plan, seen at either the Boston Medical Center or its affiliated community health centers, who were taking statins and had ≥3 LDL cholesterol measurements from 2008 to 2011. The LDL cholesterol VVV (defined by the within-patient SD) was categorized into quintiles. Multivariate logistic regression models were generated with statin nonadherence (defined by the standard 80% pharmacy refill-based medication possession ratio threshold) as the dependent variable. The proportion of statin nonadherence increased across the quintiles of LDL cholesterol VVV (64.3%, 71.2%, 89.2%, 92.3%, 91.7%). Higher quintiles of LDL cholesterol VVV had a strong positive association with statin nonadherence, with an adjusted odds ratio of 3.4 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 7.1) in the highest versus lowest quintile of LDL cholesterol VVV. The age- and gender-adjusted model had poor discrimination (C-statistic 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.67), but the final adjusted model (age, gender, race, mean LDL cholesterol) demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistic 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.79) between the adherent and nonadherent patients. In conclusion, the VVV of LDL cholesterol demonstrated a strong association with statin nonadherence in a clinic setting. Furthermore, a VVV of LDL cholesterol-based model had good discrimination characteristics for statin nonadherence. Research is needed to validate and generalize these findings to other populations and biomarkers

A community-powered search of machine learning strategy space to find NMR property prediction models

The rise of machine learning (ML) has created an explosion in the potential strategies for using data to make scientific predictions. For physical scientists wishing to apply ML strategies to a particular domain, it can be difficult to assess in advance what strategy to adopt within a vast space of possibilities. Here we outline the results of an online community-powered effort to swarm search the space of ML strategies and develop algorithms for predicting atomic-pairwise nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) properties in molecules. Using an open-source dataset, we worked with Kaggle to design and host a 3-month competition which received 47,800 ML model predictions from 2,700 teams in 84 countries. Within 3 weeks, the Kaggle community produced models with comparable accuracy to our best previously published "in-house" efforts. A meta-ensemble model constructed as a linear combination of the top predictions has a prediction accuracy which exceeds that of any individual model, 7-19x better than our previous state-of-the-art. The results highlight the potential of transformer architectures for predicting quantum mechanical (QM) molecular properties

Overfitting Affects the Reliability of Radial Velocity Mass Estimates of the V1298 Tau Planets

Mass, radius, and age measurements of young (<100 Myr) planets have the power to shape our understanding of planet formation. However, young stars tend to be extremely variable in both photometry and radial velocity, which makes constraining these properties challenging. The V1298 Tau system of four ~0.5 Rjup planets transiting a pre-main sequence star presents an important, if stress-inducing, opportunity to directly observe and measure the properties of infant planets. Su\'arez-Mascare\~no et al. (2021) published radial-velocity-derived masses for two of the V1298 Tau planets using a state-of-the-art Gaussian Process regression framework. The planetary densities computed from these masses were surprisingly high, implying extremely rapid contraction after formation in tension with most existing planet formation theories. In an effort to further constrain the masses of the V1298 Tau planets, we obtained 36 RVs using Keck/HIRES, and analyzed them in concert with published RVs and photometry. Through performing a suite of cross validation tests, we found evidence that the preferred model of SM21 suffers from overfitting, defined as the inability to predict unseen data, rendering the masses unreliable. We detail several potential causes of this overfitting, many of which may be important for other RV analyses of other active stars, and recommend that additional time and resources be allocated to understanding and mitigating activity in active young stars such as V1298 Tau.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures; published in A

Rising from the Ashes: Mid-infrared Re-brightening of the Impostor SN 2010da in NGC 300

We present multi-epoch mid-infrared (IR) photometry and the optical discovery observations of the "impostor" supernova (SN) 2010da in NGC 300 using new and archival Spitzer Space Telescope images and ground-based observatories. The mid-infrared counterpart of SN 2010da was detected as Spitzer Infrared Intensive Transient Survey (SPIRITS) 14bme in the SPIRITS, an ongoing systematic search for IR transients. Before erupting on 2010 May 24, the SN 2010da progenitor exhibited a constant mid-IR flux at 3.6 and only a slight ~10% decrease at 4.5 μm between 2003 November and 2007 December. A sharp increase in the 3.6 μm flux followed by a rapid decrease measured ~150 days before and ~80 days after the initial outburst, respectively, reveal a mid-IR counterpart to the coincident optical and high luminosity X-ray outbursts. At late times, after the outburst (~2000 days), the 3.6 and 4.5 μm emission increased to over a factor of two times the progenitor flux and is currently observed (as of 2016 Feb) to be fading, but still above the progenitor flux. We attribute the re-brightening mid-IR emission to continued dust production and increasing luminosity of the surviving system associated with SN 2010da. We analyze the evolution of the dust temperature (T_d ~ 700–1000 K), mass (M_d ~ 0.5–3.8 × 10^(−7) M⊙), luminosity (L_(IR) ~ 1.3–3.5 × 10^4 L⊙), and the equilibrium temperature radius (R_(eq) ~ 6.4–12.2 au) in order to resolve the nature of SN 2010da. We address the leading interpretation of SN 2010da as an eruption from a luminous blue variable high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) system. We propose that SN 2010da is instead a supergiant (sg)B[e]-HMXB based on similar luminosities and dust masses exhibited by two other known sgB[e]-HMXB systems. Additionally, the SN 2010da progenitor occupies a similar region on a mid-IR color–magnitude diagram (CMD) with known sgB[e] stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The lower limit estimated for the orbital eccentricity of the sgB[e]-HMXB (e > 0.82) from X-ray luminosity measurements is high compared to known sgHMXBs and supports the claim that SN 2010da may be associated with a newly formed HMXB system

The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting K dwarf TOI-1246

Multi-planet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V=11.6, K=9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31 d, 5.90 d, 18.66 d, and 37.92 d. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97±0.06 R⊕,2.47±0.08 R⊕,3.46±0.09 R⊕, 3.72±0.16 R⊕), and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1±1.1M⊕, 8.8±1.2M⊕, 5.3±1.7M⊕, 14.8±2.3M⊕). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (Pe/Pd=2.03) and exhibit transit timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only six systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70±0.24 to 3.21±0.44g/cm3, implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 ± 3.6 M⊕. This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e with a candidate period of 93.8 d, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature