A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pitch Framing

Since the advent of high-resolution pitch tracking data (PITCHf/x), many in the sabermetrics community have attempted to quantify a Major League Baseball catcher's ability to "frame" a pitch (i.e. increase the chance that a pitch is called as a strike). Especially in the last three years, there has been an explosion of interest in the "art of pitch framing" in the popular press as well as signs that teams are considering framing when making roster decisions. We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate each umpire's probability of calling a strike, adjusting for pitch participants, pitch location, and contextual information like the count. Using our model, we can estimate each catcher's effect on an umpire's chance of calling a strike.We are then able to translate these estimated effects into average runs saved across a season. We also introduce a new metric, analogous to Jensen, Shirley, and Wyner's Spatially Aggregate Fielding Evaluation metric, which provides a more honest assessment of the impact of framing

Estimating an NBA player's impact on his team's chances of winning

Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game still in question (e.g. tie score with five minutes left) in exactly the same way as they treat performances with the outcome virtually decided (e.g. when one team leads by 30 points with one minute left). Because they ignore the context in which players perform, these measures can result in misleading estimates of how players help their teams win. We instead use a win probability framework for evaluating the impact NBA players have on their teams' chances of winning. We propose a Bayesian linear regression model to estimate an individual player's impact, after controlling for the other players on the court. We introduce several posterior summaries to derive rank-orderings of players within their team and across the league. This allows us to identify highly paid players with low impact relative to their teammates, as well as players whose high impact is not captured by existing metrics.Comment: To appear in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis of Spor

Simultaneous Variable and Covariance Selection with the Multivariate Spike-and-Slab Lasso

We propose a Bayesian procedure for simultaneous variable and covariance selection using continuous spike-and-slab priors in multivariate linear regression models where q possibly correlated responses are regressed onto p predictors. Rather than relying on a stochastic search through the high-dimensional model space, we develop an ECM algorithm similar to the EMVS procedure of Rockova & George (2014) targeting modal estimates of the matrix of regression coefficients and residual precision matrix. Varying the scale of the continuous spike densities facilitates dynamic posterior exploration and allows us to filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances gradually. Our method is seen to substantially outperform regularization competitors on simulated data. We demonstrate our method with a re-examination of data from a recent observational study of the effect of playing high school football on several later-life cognition, psychological, and socio-economic outcomes

Escalator design features evaluation

Escalators are available with design features such as dual speed (90 and 120 fpm), mat operation and flat steps. These design features were evaluated based on the impact of each on capital and operating costs, traffic flow, and safety. A human factors engineering model was developed to analyze the need for flat steps at various speeds. Mat operation of escalators was found to be cost effective in terms of energy savings. Dual speed operation of escalators with the higher speed used during peak hours allows for efficient operation. A minimum number of flat steps required as a function of escalator speed was developed to ensure safety for the elderly

Evaluation of ADAM/1 model for advanced coal extraction concepts

Several existing computer programs for estimating life cycle cost of mining systems were evaluated. A commercially available program, ADAM/1 was found to be satisfactory in relation to the needs of the advanced coal extraction project. Two test cases were run to confirm the ability of the program to handle nonconventional mining equipment and procedures. The results were satisfactory. The model, therefore, is recommended to the project team for evaluation of their conceptual designs

M\"{o}ller and Bhabha scattering in the noncommutative standard model

We study the M\"{o}ller and Bhabha scattering in the noncommutative extension of the standard model(SM) using the Seiberg-Witten maps of this to first order of the noncommutative parameter $\theta_{\mu \nu}$. We look at the angular distribution $d\sigma/d\Omega$ to explore the noncommutativity of space-time at around $\Lambda_{NC} \sim$ TeV and find that the distribution deviates significantly from the one obtained from the commutative version of the standard model.Comment: 15 pages, 14 eps figures.Text is modified a little and version to appear in Phys.Rev.

Limits on Low Scale Gravity from e+e−→W+W−,ZZe^+ e^- \to W^+ W^-, ZZ and γγ\gamma \gamma

It has been proposed recently that the scale of quantum gravity (``the string scale'') can be $M_S \sim$ few TeV with $n \geq 2$ extra dimensions of size $R \stackrel{<}{\sim}$ mm so that, at distances greater than $R$, Newtonian gravity with $M_{Pl} \sim 10^{18}$ GeV is reproduced if $M_{Pl}^2 \sim R^n M_S^{n+2}$. Exchange of virtual gravitons in this theory generates higher-dimensional operators involving SM fields, suppressed by powers of $M_S$. We discuss constraints on this scenario from the contribution of these operators to the processes $e^+ e^- \to W^+ W^-, ZZ, \gamma \gamma$. We find that LEP2 can place a limit $M_S \approx 1$ TeV from $e^+ e^- \to W^+ W^-, ZZ, \gamma \gamma$.Comment: Replacing an earlier version. A discussion of using polarized electron beams and some minor comments have been adde

Binary systems: implications for outflows & periodicities relevant to masers

Bipolar molecular outflows have been observed and studied extensively in the past, but some recent observations of periodic variations in maser intensity pose new challenges. Even quasi-periodic maser flares have been observed and reported in the literature. Motivated by these data, we have tried to study situations in binary systems with specific attention to the two observed features, i.e., the bipolar flows and the variabilities in the maser intensity. We have studied the evolution of spherically symmetric wind from one of the bodies in the binary system, in the plane of the binary. Our approach includes the analytical study of rotating flows with numerical computation of streamlines of fluid particles using PLUTO code. We present the results of our findings assuming simple configurations, and discuss the implications.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 287, 2012, Cosmic masers - from OH to H