Assessment of Belg 2023 Climate and Climate Outlook of the upcoming Kiremt 2023

In collaboration with AICCRA, EMI held a workshop to present the assessment of the Belg 2023 climate and the outlook of the upcoming Kiremt 2023. It was held within the NFCS-E framework, mainstreaming climate into key socio-economic sectors for resilience and sustainable development. It was convened on May 16, 2022, at Haile Resort, Adama, Ethiopia, and brought together 300 government officials of WoWE, EDRMC, EMI, representatives from socio-economic sectors, international partners, civic societies, and media. Three important sessions took place at the workshop. In the opening session, the opening remark was delivered by Mr. Fetene Teshome, Director General of EMI; Dr. Teferi Demissie from AICCRA and Dr. Mariane from WMO RA1 delivered keynote speeches; finally, opening remarks were delivered by H.E Dr. Eng. Habtamu Etefa Minster of MoWE. Presentations on AICCRA, Belg 2023 assessment, and the climate outlook of Kiremt 2023 were entertained during the second session. In the last session (parallel breakout session), participants were divided into two groups to discuss and present the socio-economic impact assessments of Belg 2023 and the potential impacts of Kiremt 2023 on health, water, energy, environment, and disaster risk reduction

State of Climate in Ethiopia 2021

Ethiopia is located within 3.30°N–15°N and 33°E–48°E, in the Horn of Africa (Fig. 1). It covers an area of about 1.14 million square kilometers (944,000 square miles), with a total population of more than 85 million (MoFA,2013). The country's topography comprises high and rugged plateaus and the peripheral lowlands. From a topographic viewpoint, the country confines the Great African Rift Valley that bisects Ethiopia into the eastern and western escarpments. It gradually slopes up from the lowland edges of Rift Valley to the eastern and western escarpments into the southern, central, western and northern mountains. Major parts of the country are made up of a wide plateau and mountains of various heights (Fig. 1). Elevations in the country range from 160 meters below sea level (northern exit of the Rift Valley) to over 4600 meters above sea level (of northern mountainous regions). The highest mountains are concentrated on the northern and southern plateaus of the country (MoWR,2013). The climatic condition of the country results in high rainfall during the rainy season, which in turn causes perennial and seasonal rivers and stream flows. However, as rainfall is seasonal, the volume of discharges of rivers, both local and transboundary, is subject to seasonal variations (MoWR,2013)

National Climate Outlook Forum Kiremt 2022 Impact Assessment and Bega 2022/23 Climate Impact Outlook

Ethiopia meteorological Institute (EMI) established as an autonomous government organization in 1980 under proclamation No 201/1980. The mission of EMI is to provide weather, climate and early warning services that contribute to socio-economic activities of the nation, and protect lives and property. This will be achieved by collecting, analyzing, forecasting and communicating meteorological and related information. The institute mainly focuses on three strategic pillars. The first is to ensure meteorological data coverage, quality and access, which include data collection, data quality control, meteorological instrument calibration data communication and data management activities. The second one is meteorological forecast and early warning advisory service which aims to improve forecasting and early warning systems; to expand sector focused advisories on forecasts to reach all communities of the country, as well as increasing understanding of the effect of meteorological parameters on agricultural development; to increase the use of hydro-meteorological observations and forecasts to drive development; to improve health and insurance services; and to improve aviation services. The other focus is meteorological research and training which aims to strengthen operational research on weather and climate systems affecting Ethiopia to improve its services and capacity building activities. EMI prepare seasonal weather and climate its effect assessment and climate outlook for upcoming season and organize National Climate Outlook forum three times every for each seasons in Ethiopia; - namely Bega, Belg and Kiremt and Disseminate it’s early and advisory services with governmental and nongovernmental stakeholders. The National climate outlook held at Kereyu hotel, Adama/Ethiopia on 22nd and 23rd of September 2022

A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models

Modern coupled general circulation models produce systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic that hamper the reliability of long-range predictions. This study focuses on a common springtime westerly wind bias in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal hindcasts from two coupled models – ECMWF System 4 and EC-Earth v2.3 – and in hindcasts also based on System 4, but with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. The development of the equatorial westerly bias in early April is marked by a rapid transition from a wintertime easterly, cold tongue bias to a springtime westerly bias regime that displays a marked double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The transition is a seasonal feature of the model climatology (independent of initialisation date) and is associated with a seasonal increase in rainfall where a second branch of the ITCZ is produced south of the Equator. Excess off-equatorial convergence redirects the trade winds away from the Equator. Based on arguments of temporal coincidence, the results of our analysis contrast with those from previous work, and alleged causes hereto identified as the likely cause of the equatorial westerly bias in other models must be discarded. Quite in general, we find no evidence of remote influences on the development of the springtime equatorial bias in the Atlantic in the IFS-based models. Limited evidence however is presented that supports the hypothesis of an incorrect representation of the meridional equatorward flow in the marine boundary layer of the southern Atlantic as a contributing factor. Erroneous dynamical constraints on the flow upstream of the Equator may generate convergence and associated rainfall south of the Equator. This directs attention to the representation of the properties of the subtropical boundary layer as a potential source for the double ITCZ bias

Training on Climate-Smart Agriculture for Sunflower Value Chain in Tanzania

Tanzania is the major sunflower producer in the East Africa region. It has a market dominance of 78%, followed by Uganda (21%). It is an important cash crop in Tanzania and has been attributed to the low cost of production relative to other oilseeds. Moreover, sunflower accounts for 35% of oilseeds produced in the United Republic of Tanzania. Sunflower variety grown in Tanzania has been characterized as resistant to drought conditions and low susceptibility to diseases and pests. Sunflower grows well in semi-arid central plateau regions (Singida, Iringa, Dodoma, Njombe and Rukwa), lake region (Mwanza, Kigoma, Mara, Kagera, Geita, Shinyanga, Simiyu), and eastern region (Mtwara, Lindi, Morogoro) of Tanzania. For instance, sunflower is the second most popular crop after maize in Dodoma and Singida, and the latter region produces about 20% of the cash crop. In addition, commercial sunflower is produced by 75% of the households in Singida, and the land allocated is estimated to be 23,4149 hectares. Central regions like Dodoma, Njombe and Rukwa have collectively allocated more than 84,000 hectare

Python Climate Predictability Tool (PyCPT) training for improved seasonal climate prediction over Ethiopia

Training on weather forecasting tools and techniques is a fundamental requirement for meteorological services to improve the accuracy and reliability of weather and climate forecasts. These tools greatly support the generation and packaging of forecasts that are destined for private and public consumption. Ethiopia's National Meteorological Agency (NMA), under the support of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), through the project Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow (ACToday), is working together with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) - East Africa (EA) to address the needs and demands of different stakeholders including governmental, non-governmental organizations and other non-state actors by conducting staff training to improve the generation of reliable, timely and accurate weather and seasonal forecasts. With the support of the IRI and CCAFS - EA, training on the Next Generation (NextGen) seasonal forecasting was given from January 11-15, 2021, to 26 participants from the National Metrological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA). Participants were selected from NMA's Regional Meteorological Service Centers (RMSC's) and NMA head office. The Next Generation (NextGen) multi-model approach is a general systematic approach for designing, implementing, producing, and verifying objective climate forecasts. It involves identifying decision-relevant variables by stakeholders and analyzing the physical mechanisms, sources of predictability, and suitable candidate predictors (in models and observations) for key relevant variables. When prediction skill is high enough, NextGen helps select the best dynamic models for the region of interest through a process-based evaluation and automizes the generation and verification of tailored multi-model, statistically calibrated predictions at seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales

Consultative Policy Workshop on the Implementation of Climate-Smart Agriculture in the Potato Value Chain in Tanzania: Challenges, Barriers, and Opportunities

Climate-smart interventions in agriculture, or climate-resilient agriculture, is increasingly becoming a global climate policy priority. Agriculture is increasingly gaining recognition from climate policy actors for its exposure to climate change impacts and its contribution to climate change. Investment into climate-smart agriculture (CSA) innovations are also receiving increasing attention from investors. The official climate change policy position for all countries of East Africa is to prioritize adaptation, with mitigation expected to be a co-benefit if, when and where possible

Training on the Application of Climate Foresight Data in Enhancing Agricultural Policy Implementation and Decision- Making in Eastern and Central Africa

A paradigm shift is required in policies to make food systems sustainable. The climate foresight workshop highlights the critical role of collaborations between farmers and corporate, governmental, and entities involved in extension and training services as well as research and development. The workshop demonstrates that stakeholders (Fig. 2) at different dimensions of the climate service value chain and across different industries may collaborate to achieve shared, synergistic aim

State of Index-Based Crop Insurance Interventions for Smallholder Farmers and Agribusinesses in East Africa

This review of index-based agricultural insurance for the Climate Resilient Agribusiness for Tomorrow—CRAFT (https://crafteastafrica.org/) project was part of a wider effort to strengthen understanding in the enabling environment for scaling in CRAFT interventions. The findings can be used to design an appropriate agricultural insurance intervention in future. Climate-smart crop insurance is one of the interventions that was proposed in the project. Smallholder farmers and agribusinesses (SMEs and cooperatives) often lack access to financial services such as insurance, which could help them to prepare, invest, safeguard, and adapt. Opportunities for tailored index-based insurances to cover climate-related crop losses are still underdeveloped in eastern Africa. Further, there is a possibility of the risk or likelihood or prospect of climate change to raise insurance prices. Hence the urgent need to help climate-proof the CRAFT project value chains through financial services such as insurance. In the wider CRAFT enabling environment, there were opportunities for access to insurance services that were either not yet developed (such as tailored index-based insurances to cover for climate-related crop losses) or did not experience sufficient incentives due to high risks and uncertainties, including those related to climate change. East African governments need support in facilitating access to these financial services for agribusinesses and entrepreneurial farmer

South-South Technical Knowledge Exchange and Learning Initiative (STEKELI) Workshop

In Africa, many actors, programmes, projects, or initiatives are implemented by international organizations or continental institutions, or sub-regional and national entities to improve the development, provision, uptake and use of weather and climate services1 .For instance, the Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) have been engaged in developing models and methodologies based on ground and satellite observations to forecast/monitor rainfall, cropwater requirements, drought, early warning system, weather/climate, and seasonal and inter-annual variations. They have also provided training in a wide range of expertise in agro-meteorology, hydrology, and equipment maintenance, as well as on topics related to food security, climate change, and sustainable natural resources (land and water) management. Reliable observed climate data are essential to monitoring past and current weather and climate conditions, producing reliable forecast information, assessing the models' skill, understanding climate variability and longterm changes, and assessing sectoral impacts (agriculture, water resources, and health). Reliable climate information could, therefore, help build resilience against the negative impact of climate change and improve people's livelihood