PERBANDINGAN METODE SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA) DAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE (WMA) PADA PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN TAHUN 2019 (STUDI KASUS GAMPONG BLANG BINTANG, ACEH BESAR)

ABSTRAKBerbagai permasalahan di Indonesia salah satunya adalah perubahan iklim yangberubah-ubah. Perubahan iklim yang tak menentu menyebabkan curah hujanberubah-ubah setiap periode. Perubahan ini berdampak pada masyarakat terutamadalam bidang pertanian seperti kegagalan panen. Sehinggan penelitian inibertujuan untuk meramalkan curah hujan tahun 2018 dan tahun 2019 denganmetode Simple Moving Average (SMA) dan metode Weighted Moving Average(WMA). Berdasarkan data tahun 2004-2018, didapat musim kemarau terjadi padabulan Februari-Oktober dan musim hujan pada bulan November-Januari. NilaiMAPE peramalan tahun 2018 untuk metode SMA sebesar 43,43% dan metode WMAsebesar 40,69%. Kedua metode ini bersifat rendah dan reasonable atau dapatditerima. Pembagian musim untuk tahun 2019 berdasarkan metode SMA yaitumusim kemarau diperkirakan pada bulan Februari-Oktober dan musim hujan bulanDesember-Januari.Musim kemarau diperkirakan pada bulan Februari-April, JuniSeptemberdan musim hujan pada bulan Oktober-Januari dan Mei berdasarkanmetode WMA.Kata Kunci: Curah Hujan, Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted MovingAverage (WMA), Blang BintangABSTRACTVarious problems in Indonesia one of which is climate change. Erratic climatechange causes rainfall to vary from period to period. This change has an impact onsociety, especially in agriculture such as crop failure. So this research aims topredict rainfall in 2018 and 2019 with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) methodand the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method, then these results will becompared with 2004-2018. Based on 2004-2018 data, the dry season is found inFebruary-October and the rainy season in November-January. The MAPEforecasting in 2018 value for the SMA method was 43.43% and the WMA methodwas 40.69%. Both of these methods are low and reasonable or acceptable. Thedivision of seasons for 2019 is based on the SMA method, namely the dry season isexpected in February-October and the rainy season in November-January. The dryseason is estimated in February-April, June-September and the rainy season inOctober-January and May based on the WMA method.Keywords: Rainfall, Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average(WMA), Blang Bintan

Comparison of Rainfall Forecasting in Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) Methods (Case Study at Village of Gampong Blang Bintang, Big Aceh District-Sumatera-Indonesia

The changing climate causes rainfall to vary from period to period. This change has an impact on society, especially in agriculture such as crop failure. This study aims to predict rainfall in 2018 and 2019 with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method and the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method. Based on 2004-2018 data, the dry season occurs in February-October and the rainy season in November-January. The level of validation of forecasters in 2018 according to each the SMA method and the WMA method were 43.43% and 40.69%, respectively. Both of these methods are low and reasonable or acceptable. Based on the SMA method, the division of the dry season in 2019 is estimated in February-October while the distribution of the rainy season in the same year is in December-January. Based on the WMA Method that the distribution of the dry season is estimated in February-April, June-September and the rainy season in October-January and May