The Delphi process - an expert-based approach to ecological modelling in data-poor environments

Resource managers are involved in difficult decisions that affect rare species and habitats but often lack relevant ecological knowledge and experience. Ecological models are increasingly being looked to as a means of assisting the decision-making process, but very often the data are missing or are unsuited to empirical modelling. This paper describes the development and application of the Delphi approach to develop a decision support tool for wildlife conservation and management. The Delphi process is an expert-based approach to decision support that can be used as a means for predicting outcomes in situations where 'absolute' or 'objective' models are unavailable or compromised by lack of appropriate data. The method aims to develop consensus between experts over several rounds of deliberation on the assumption that combining the expertise of several individuals will provide more reliable results than consulting one or two individuals. In this paper the approach is used to engineer soft knowledge on the conservation requirements of capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, an endangered woodland grouse, into a model that can be used by forests managers to improve the quality of forest habitat for capercaillie over extensive commercial forest areas. This paper concludes with a discussion of the potential advantages and disadvantages of Delphi and other soft knowledge approaches to ecological modelling and conservation management

[Laser pointers are not toys; eye injury with permanent loss of visual acuity]

Item does not contain fulltextIn the nineteen-nineties, there was much hype in the European media about presumed laser pointer maculopathy. However, the recent introduction of more powerful and therefore more dangerous laser pointers and their easy availability on the internet necessitates vigilance on the issue. This is an urgent matter, as here we report three cases of proven maculopathy due to an unsafe laser pointer. Three boys aged 13, 9 and 12 years used an unsafe laser pointer as a toy and looked repeatedly into the pointer, resulting in a permanent reduction in visual acuity due to macular damage. Laser pointers are not designed to be children's toys or instruments to annoy people in a crowd. Health authorities and the ophthalmic community should be aware of the potential danger of improper use of high-output laser pointers and warn the general public before the widespread availability of unsafe laser pointers and consequently laser pointer-induced macular damage becomes a true social problem